Category: 7-Day Outlook

Nov 10

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 7.07.33 AMHighlights:

  • Wednesday night storms
  • Very windy to close the week
  • Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

TueEvening

WedEvening

ThrEveningWe still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall.  Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event.  Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday.  As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time.  This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

10pradarWedAs mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm.  We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms.  Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH).  Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November.  We note the SOI is actually positive right now.  This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

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The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks.  Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-eyeing-mid-week-storms-windy-and-colder-to-close-the-week/

Nov 07

Dry, Chilly November Weekend; Mid Week Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-11-07 at 10.56.54 AMHighlights:

  • Sunny and cool
  • Midweek Storms
  • Prolonged period of windy weather late week

High pressure is building into the Ohio Valley this weekend and helping supply sunshine and that cool, crisp air we enjoy this time of year.  Freeze and frost conditions are ahead tonight and again Monday morning as high pressure moves overhead and results in clear skies and calm winds.

As the high moves to our east, a return SW flow will help moderate temperatures for mid week. As our next storm system comes out of the Plains it’ll intensify as it tracks into the Great Lakes.  Thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it swings through the state Wednesday night.  We’ll monitor for strong to severe storm potential.  A lot will hinge upon the precise track of the surface low and we’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple days.  We’ll turn cooler again late next week with strong winds shifting from the SW to NW.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dry-chilly-november-weekend-mid-week-storms/

Nov 04

Gusty Storms Followed By November Chill…

Screen Shot 2015-11-04 at 9.55.56 PMHighlights:

  • One more warm day
  • Gusty storms late tonight-Friday morning
  • Feeling more seasonal this weekend
  • Next storm arrives at the end of the period

High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front tonight.  Variably cloudy skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy as the afternoon/ evening progresses.  Gusty SW winds will increase and gust over 20 MPH by afternoon.

The cold front will move through central IN early Friday morning and be preceded by a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A few of these storms may contain strong winds, and this potential is something we’ll continue to keep a close eye on through the day Thursday.  Beneficial rains will also accompany the frontal passage.

The big story going into the weekend will be a much cooler, more seasonable feel, but sunshine will also be in our forecast.

Our next storm system of note appears to have eyes on the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.5″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/gusty-storms-followed-by-november-chill/

Nov 02

We’re Getting Spoiled…

Screen Shot 2015-11-02 at 7.31.53 AMHighlights:

  • Stretch of beautiful weather continues
  • Breezy winds arrive Thursday
  • Stormy end to the work week
  • Cooler weekend

In the short term there’s no reason to waste a bunch of pixels on our forecast.  High pressure will supply beautiful conditions and a building ridge will only promote warmer days ahead.  Look for lots of sunshine and well above normal, near-record, warmth.

Southwest winds will become gusty Thursday and this is in advance of an approaching cold front that will deliver showers and thunderstorms Friday morning.  The cold front will move through Friday afternoon and usher in much cooler air for the upcoming weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/were-getting-spoiled/

Nov 01

Beautiful Weather…

Screen Shot 2015-11-01 at 8.24.24 AMHighlights:

  • Lots of sunshine to open November
  • Unseasonably warm weather
  • Late week storms with a cold front

We couldn’t ask for better weather to open November.  Look for an extended stretch of unseasonably warm, tranquil conditions.  It’ll be perfect to finish last minute yard clean up or get an early start on putting those Christmas decorations up.  Enjoy!

The next weather system of note will arrive Friday in the form of a cold front.  While timing issues are present, we’re keeping an eye on the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong).  A drier and cooler air mass will build in next weekend.  An early look at weather next Sunday would suggest frosty conditions for many…

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/beautiful-weather-2/