Category: 7-Day Outlook

Nov 27

Extended Stretch Of Raw Conditions…

Screen Shot 2015-11-27 at 7.13.46 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning colder
  • Finally begin to dry things out

We sure hope you enjoyed those pleasant conditions on Thanksgiving Day, as rain (and eventually colder air) is settling in for the long haul.

The overall set-up shows a cold front slicing it’s way through the mid section this morning.  This front will continue to slowly settle southeast and much colder air will “ooze” into the area directly behind the boundary later tonight and Saturday.  Unfortunately, once the front passes to our south, additional disturbances will move along the front and enhance rain across our area from time to time over the weekend.

Here’s a snap shot, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, of what we the surface map/ simulated radar may look like as we rumble through the Thanksgiving weekend.

FridayMap

SaturdayMap

SundayMapAs mentioned above, the temperature story will also be a focal point later tonight.  Notice the incredible difference within just a matter of miles as we go deeper into the weekend.  While central IN will be in the “transition” period tonight, all of the area will be on the cold side of the boundary Saturday.  That forecast high in the upper 40s that you see above in our 7-day will be at midnight as most of tomorrow will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

8pFriTemp

Sat4pTempWe’ll continue to deal with unsettled and rather “raw” conditions into the early portions of next week, but we should finally be able to shake the damp conditions by Wednesday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on yet another system late next week, but models keep this storm to our south as of now.  Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/5767/

Nov 26

Nice Today, But A Wet And Raw Weekend Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-11-26 at 9.31.37 AMHighlights:

  • Extended wet and raw stretch of weather
  • Turning colder next week

First and foremost, happy Thanksgiving from all of us at IndyWx.com!  We hope you have a blessed day with friends and family and we’re incredibly thankful for your support of what we’re doing here at IndyWx!

Thanksgiving Day, itself, will be filled with very pleasant weather as a SW flow transports mild air northbound and results in highs around 60 this afternoon with a gusty breeze in place.  A scattered shower is possible, but it’s not until we get to late tonight and Black Friday that we expect more widespread rains across the region.

Rain will settle in Friday and temperatures will also go the wrong direction come evening as a cold front passes through the area.  This is the first in a series of rain that we’ll deal with over the Thanksgiving weekend.  A second surge of rain will arrive Saturday into Sunday, followed by a third push of rain Monday.  All total, between 1-2″ of rain is a good bet across a widespread portion of the region between Friday and Monday.

Colder air will settle in by the middle of next week.  We’ll have to closely monitor as a fourth system will be in play.  It’s far too early for details, but we’ll keep an eye on things to see if some sort of wintry precipitation may be in play late next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-today-but-a-wet-and-raw-weekend-coming/

Nov 22

Frigid Start; Looking Ahead To Thanksgiving…

Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 9.27.08 AMHighlights:

  • Arctic air begins to moderate
  • Next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving
  • Another punch of cold air next weekend

Before we discuss what lies ahead, let’s look back at yesterday’s snow event that “overachieved” for many.  Particularly just northwest of the city where 2″-4″ fell.  Snowfall rates were heavy enough to overcome the initially warm surface temperatures, and it was very impressive to see the way the snow accumulated considering this was a November event that took place from late morning into the early afternoon (when the sun angle does the majority of it’s work).  This was an impressive first snow of the season and this morning’s snowpack is widespread throughout the Mid West.

nsm_depth_2015112205_MidwestThe visible satellite this morning shows the snow cover across the central and northern portions of the state, where single digits and teens were common.

SnowpackThe next few days will feature dry and cold conditions.  While we’ll remain below average, temperatures will slowly begin to moderate from the arctic intrusion of today.

We’ll get into a SW (milder air flow) regime for a brief period of time Thanksgiving Day out ahead of our next storm system that will move in Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday.  Clouds will increase and moisture will spread into the region during the aforementioned time period.  Most of the rain will fall Friday, so plan on taking the rain gear with you as you venture out to begin that Christmas shopping.

Thanksgiving

BlackFridayMuch colder air will pour into the region Thanksgiving weekend and we’ll have to maintain a close eye on the evolution of things late next weekend into early December.  Models will continue to waiver on specific solutions over the next few days, but there will be an attempt of a southern stream storm system coming out and “attacking” the cold air in place…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-start-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving/

Nov 21

Rain Changes To Snow Today; Busy Pattern Into Early December…

Screen Shot 2015-11-21 at 7.47.29 AMHighlights:

  • Rain changes to snow
  • Early season arctic air settles in
  • Next storm arrives for Thanksgiving
  • Eyeing a cold open to December

Our storm system is arriving on schedule this morning as rain is overspreading central IN.  Just north of the city, snow flurries are falling as we type this (Boone County).  Further north it’s mainly a snow event.  Elsewhere, rain will continue to overspread the region before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.

Here’s what the radar may look like as we progress from morning into the afternoon

8aSat

Forecast radar 8a, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

 

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

We think rain will transition to snow for Indianapolis, itself, just after lunch and may come down heavily for a time from early afternoon into the mid afternoon hours before tapering off as evening arrives.  While it may be falling “fast and furious” for a time, warm surface temperatures will limit accumulations from what they would be otherwise.  Here’s our updated snowfall map.

112115SnowMap3The big concern this evening will be flash freezing as a gusty NW flows travels over a fresh snowpack just to our north and helps temperatures plummet into the teens tonight.  Wind chills in the single digits can be expected followed by highs tomorrow only in the 20s.

Moderation will occur as we move through Thanksgiving week before our next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving Day.  Rain and breezy conditions will move in late Thursday into Friday before a much colder air mass oozes into the state late in the period.  This may set the stage for a rather “interesting” open for December as a storm system tries to “attack” the cold…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-changes-to-snow-today-busy-pattern-into-early-december/

Nov 18

Wet Today; Colder Air Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 7.15.50 AMHighlights:

  • Rain today
  • Breezy and turning cooler
  • Secondary push of early season arctic air

Our big autumn storm system is swirling through the central Plains this morning.  It’ll begin to pick up forward momentum and head northeast over the next 24 hours.

We’re dealing with an impressive fetch of moisture (w/ a Gulf of Mexico connection) this morning and that’ll help feed embedded heavy downpours this morning into the early afternoon.  Here’s a time stamp of forecast radar images, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

7aSimRadar

11aSimRadar

3pSimRadarAs mentioned above, with a GOM connection, embedded heavy rain will dampen your Wednesday activities.  On average, we’ll add an additional half inch to inch of rain today (that’s on top of what we saw Monday and Tuesday).

RaintotalsOnce to tomorrow all eyes will be on our next storm system that will eventually help pull down the season’s first blast of arctic air.  Ahead of the cold surge, expect light rain to end as light snow across central IN Saturday.  This won’t be a big deal from an accumulation perspective, but it’s always exciting seeing the first snow flakes of the season.  Further north, across our northern tier of counties, a couple inches of snow will be possible.

SatPMStormTrackWe’re also keeping a close eye on Thanksgiving’s weather.  While still a bit early to be specific, initial thoughts suggest we’re dealing with a storm on, or just on either side of Thanksgiving, that will provide rain to begin, but we caution that another surge of early season arctic air looks to pour in behind that storm system and potentially set the stage for a more impactful winter event to open December.  More on that in the days ahead…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-today-colder-air-coming/