Jan 29
We posted earlier this morning on the near term (below) and Friday and Saturday remain quite challenging and complicated. Precipitation type and amounts will have to be resolved as we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/29/a-word-about-early-next-week/
Jan 27
A major battle is taking shape between two of the more respected mid range forecast models for the late week period, including Super Bowl weekend. The differences range from yet another wintry weekend, with a couple shots of accumulating snow to one that’s much milder and includes some rain. Operational guidance today has remained consistent with what each particular model has been saying for the past 24-48 hours, adding further complexity to the upcoming late week period. Usually we’d give a slight nudge towards the European output (warmer solution), but here in a bit we’ll tell you why we’re really not ready to hedge more towards one particular model over the other at this time frame. Instead, we want to give it a couple more days and see which model “gives in” to the other.
Let’s dive into the European output first.
We note both models in relative good agreement on Thursday night into Friday as light snow overspreads the region (not a huge deal, but potentially enough to make for a slippery Friday morning commute).
As we move into Saturday the European tracks a developing surface low much further north than the GFS, resulting in a milder solution across central Indiana and a forecast that would produce a rain to snow solution Saturday as cold air quickly pours back into our region, with enough snow, perhaps, to produce a light accumulation Saturday night. However, it’s important to note, most European ensemble members are colder than the operational run and this is something we’ll need to continue to monitor.
As we head into early early next week, the European forecast model remains bullish on a potential major winter storm, with a favorable storm track for heavy amounts of wintry precipitation across central Indiana. The time we’re eyeing for this next storm falls in the Monday night-Tuesday time period so we have plenty of time to monitor things and iron out the details…
Now, as we look at the GFS forecast model, we note a colder solution from start to finish. We have to raise an eye brow here as the track record of the GFS in the mid range is one that has been known to be biased too “flat” and too cold in handling similar patterns. Is that saying the GFS is wrong here? Absolutely not…nobody knows that at this juncture. It is saying we have to rely on experience and remember similar patterns of the past, including the way the model “corrected” itself with time as we drew closer to the particular event in most cases…
Nonetheless, similar to the European, the GFS delivers a round of accumulating snow Friday morning, but is flatter (colder) with the initial wave and also leads to quite the overrunning event through the Ohio Valley. As a matter of fact, we deal with two rounds of accumulating snow…Friday morning into the early afternoon and again Saturday morning, associated with yet another wave of low pressure.
Of interest, the GFS also sees the potential strong winter storm that could impact our neck of the woods early next week. Needless to say, the surface map next Tuesday morning would have snow lovers smiling in a big way should this come to fruition…
While we have many details to iron out late week and on into early next week, the overall weather pattern is one that we remain confident on and the results are cold and stormy (i.e. snowy) over the upcoming 10-14 day period. As a matter of fact, long range teleconnections suggest we remain colder than normal and stormy through the majority of February. In short, there’s really no let up in sight from the overall cold and wintry time of things Hoosiers have grown oh so accustomed to this winter…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/27/big-fight-late-week-into-the-weekend/
Jan 21
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a rip-roaring start and, as we’ve discussed in previous posts, the mid to long range data suggests we remain locked in an exceptionally cold and snowy pattern. Officially, as of this evening, the Indianapolis National Weather Service has posted some impressive stats (the full report can be found here), including:
As we look ahead to the upcoming 7-10 day period, we note a continuation of arctic reinforcements- each which will be plenty capable of adding to the snowfall total. Additionally, our cold air mass will only grow even more severe and bitter over time, including multiple days during the aforementioned period where central Indiana will go below zero. Finally, there have been many questions concerning a potential big storm centered on early February. I’m not sure where this rumor started, but it’s far too early to say with any sort of confidence any specifics around a possible big winter storm early February. That said, as we’ll get into briefly below, the pattern does appear to be aligning itself in a way where a widespread winter storm is possible somewhere across the eastern half of the country.
Okay, okay, back to the near term… Let’s start with tomorrow! After a cold and dry start to the day, our next arctic front will blow into the region during the evening. Arctic fronts are notorious for having bursts of heavy snow rates in a scattered fashion and this appears to be the case as the next arctic front moves through Wednesday evening. We bracket the hours of 5p-8p for the possibility of heavy snow bursts racing through central Indiana. While these won’t last long, they’ll likely be intense- capable of depositing a quick 1″-2″ of new snow on a gusty northwest wind within 30-60 minutes. White-out conditions and extremely heavy snowfall rates will accompany the heavier bursts of snow. Latest high-resolution model data shows the heavy snow bursts accompanying the arctic front tomorrow evening:
Thursday will be mostly dry and frigid, but all eyes will then begin to turn to our next significant winter event Friday into Saturday. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley and the next approaching arctic front (and associated low pressure) will really being to kick up the wind across our region Friday. We’re afraid we deal with another round of severe blowing and drifting snow Friday, especially Friday afternoon and night. Areas most suspect to drifting and blowing snow will be central Indiana’s open country and may not be too different from the problems our region dealt with Sunday into Monday morning from blowing and drifting.
As we approach Friday night into Saturday, snow will overspread the region and will likely accumulate to the tune of a “few inches” during this time period. Strong winds will remain, shifting from the west to the northwest and eventually north. Open country will remain the prime place for continued severe blowing and drifting problems.
Just as soon as Saturday’s snow systems exits stage right, we turn our attention to potentially another significant snow maker for the second half of the weekend. Latest model data remains consistent on moving another potent clipper system into our region Sunday, including the GFS and Canadian forecast models. We still have time to fine tune the precise track of the storm, but just north of the low’s track an additional 3-5″ type snow is possible Sunday. Note the GFS and Euro in relative agreement on the track of the low, with the Canadian currently a touch further north. We’ll fine tune in the days ahead… Experience with similar patterns from the past suggests central Indiana should brace for more accumulating snow Sunday.
As for the brutal cold, we note multiple pushes of fresh arctic air behind each snow maker. We currently target Thursday morning, Friday morning, Tuesday morning, next Wednesday morning, and next Friday morning as having the most likely shot at dipping below zero. The “coldest of the cold” likely means Tuesday morning takes the crown, with lows potentially dipping into the double-digit below zero range for central Indiana. The European forecast model (below) even shows sub-zero temperatures making it as far south as the southern Appalachians.
As we look even longer term, there have been many questions centered on the potential of a big winter storm for early February. Before we go any further, we want to stress it’s far too early to make any claim of certainty to the above. That said, there are items we can pick up on to a least “raise an eyebrow” that something of significance may be brewing… Do we mean for anyone to take that verbatim and to the bank? Absolutely not.
The European Weeklies suggest we need to keep an eye on the first week of February. They show a potential phasing of the jet (where the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together- often times resulting in a big storm)… That said, we want to again stress this is far too early to be discussing with any sort of certainty. Heh, the next week will keep us busy enough!
Keep the shovel handy! Snow removal companies, thank you for your service and hard work…hopefully you have plenty of coffee on hand!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/21/historic-snow-season-keeps-rolling-along/
Jan 19
We’ve talked a lot about the relentless weather pattern that has kept our immediate region in what seems like a snow globe since mid December. Of course we’re on pace…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/19/locked-in-the-freezer/
Jan 19
As I write this, central Indiana is undergoing yet another winter storm that will dump a fresh 3-5″ of snow by midnight Sunday morning. We’re well on our way to reaching the snowiest January ever at IND and with the pattern ahead through the end of the month, we very well may just do it. Before we discuss snow, let’s take a look at the coming shots of arctic air.
While no weather event is identical to another, it’ll be rather easy to compare the coming arctic attack to that which we experienced earlier this month. That said, there are a couple of important things to consider. This next wave of arctic air will blow into town when “average” temperatures are at their lowest of the calendar year. Secondly, data continues to suggest this isn’t just one arctic plunge, but more of a longer duration event when compared to the bitter blast earlier this month. Needless to say, we’ll need to go into our preparation mode for another round of severely bitter air for the upcoming week.
Let’s look at the model data- note the eastern trough re-amplifying through the period, backing up our idea that this is a rather prolonged arctic event ahead. As of now, we focus on late in the work week/ next weekend when air temperatures plunge to their respected lowest values (below zero), but want to stress the entire period will be downright cold (much colder than normal), and the long duration event will put more strain on pipes, etc. than a quick-hitting, in and out, arctic outbreak…
When we talk about a longer duration arctic outbreak we’re talking about the possibility of below zero temperatures Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday night followed by another arctic push that sends lows below zero next Sunday and Monday nights. Stay tuned.
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a record pace as far as snow totals go. While we’re not staring at any sort of significant winter storm over the upcoming week, a fast northwest flow can present challenges galore, and any clipper stands the chance to be an “overachiever” as they race southeast over the upcoming week. We fall back on the disclaimer we’ve mentioned in previous posts with clipper systems…the track and strength will be tough for forecast models to iron out until 24-48 hours out. Secondly, with arctic air firmly in place, snow ratios will be more common around the 20:1 level as opposed to the “normal” 10:1 ratio.
Let’s look at the upcoming snow threats over the next several days…
Our first light snow threat blows in tomorrow night into Tuesday.
We then target Wednesday night-Thursday.
Finally, we’ll keep a close eye on late week/ next weekend for yet another potential snow event.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/19/winter-just-keeps-going-and-going-and-going/
Jan 14
We’ve made mention of this in the past and we bring this up again as the upcoming weather pattern is one that’s predictable in one sense, but very challenging in another. We know it’s going to get colder, that we’re confident on. That said, models will continue to struggle with the details of snow chances, associated with clipper systems diving southeast into the region. Issues with timing and snowfall amounts are common in these patterns up until 24-48 hours prior to the event.
Case in point, let’s take this weekend. Three forecast models are handling snow chances differently in the Friday-Saturday period. The European model and Canadian are jumping more on Friday snow (light accumulations), while the GFS is focused on Saturday snow (again, light accumulations)…
Which is the correct solution? It’s a tough call at this point, but we’ll go with a blend of the three for now, focused on best accumulating snow chances (1-2″ variety) coming late Friday into Saturday morning. That said, as mentioned above, it’s a tough call and this will require fine tuning as we move forward. Make it a great day!
The European and Canadian forecast models are honing in on Friday for best chance of light accumulating snow:
Meanwhile, the GFS is focused on Saturday for best snow chances:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/14/challenging-northwest-flow/
Jan 01
You can always catch your latest 7-Day Video Forecast in the video player to the right of this post.
We continue to be very impressed with what’s ahead, winter weather-wise, for central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 10 days. Simply put, what’s at stake is a 10-day period of winter weather that could rival the all time greats in terms of snowfall and cold. It’ll certainly be interesting to watch things unfold in the days ahead.
Here are some quick-hitting bullet points of what we’re eyeing…
First things first and that’s tonight’s and Thursday’s snow event. We think snow becomes widespread across central Indiana prior to, or around, midnight. The low pressure system that will aid in snow production across our region Thursday AM is organizing across the central Plains this evening and this will move east northeast with time between now and Thursday morning.
Latest high-resolution simulated model data shows the snow increasing in coverage across central Indiana around midnight.
We think the period of heaviest snow comes during the early to mid morning Thursday and will result in a horrible rush period on area roadways. Accumulating snow ends by noon and is replaced with falling temperatures, gusty northwest winds resulting in blowing and drifting, and scattered lake-driven flurries.
All eyes will then shift to storm number two set to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday. An arctic boundary will moves towards the region Saturday night and Sunday and help surface low pressure develop. All of our medium range models (GFS, Canadian, European) are on board with a developing surface low in the Ark-la-tex region late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning and can be seen below.
There are still some questions that we have in regards to the extreme snowfall forecasts off some computer models, and we’ll stick with our initial call made here last night of an additional 3-6″ of snow late Saturday night-Sunday for now. We come up with that range based off an all model blend, including raw numbers, operational data, and ensembles. An extremely strong arctic high pressure system will be plunging south and will limit how far north the heavy snow makes it. That said, snowfall ratios and an initial impressive thermal gradient will lead to a heavy snow storm for some parts of the Ohio Valley region Sunday. Stay tuned.
As early next week approaches (and I’m all settled in to enjoy what I hope to be Auburn’s second National Championship in 4 years), the coldest air since 1994 will be blowing into the region. Downright dangerous wind chill values of 40 degrees below zero will be possible Monday into Tuesday and result in extremely dangerous conditions to be outdoors for any period of time.
Here’s a look at the latest wind chill idea:
Forecast lows of 15 to 20 degrees below zero will be likely early next week across central Indiana with afternoon highs struggling to make it to zero.
Prepare now for a significant triple threat punch of snow and cold in the days ahead. Stay tuned!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/01/triple-threat-of-dangerous-winter-weather-ahead/
Jan 01
It’s great to be back in the good ole weather office and craft a post about the upcoming weather pattern- a pattern that should be pointed out to be progressing along as planned. Simply put, if you like winter weather, this is the pattern for you.
If you haven’t had a chance to read the posts from the past couple weeks, please be sure to do so as we laid the ground work as to why we were buying a cold, wintry pattern returning:
As we look ahead over the upcoming (7) days we’re tracking two accumulating snow opportunities and one big slug of downright bitter (and dangerously cold) air.
First things first and that’s the snow event ahead Wednesday night into Thursday.
We currently think snow overspreads central Indiana late Wednesday night into the wee morning hours Thursday. Snowfall accumulations with system numero uno will likely be in the 2-4″ range for many neighborhoods across central Indiana.
The latest high-resolution NAM model shows the snow moving in and becoming moderate to briefly heavy during the wee morning hours Thursday:
Heaviest snow with system #1 falls prior to noon Thursday with light snow and gusty winds lingering for the PM.
That said, we don’t have much down time as system #2 is set to arrive late Saturday night into the wee morning hours Sunday. The weather situation is one that features an arctic boundary sinking south over the region Sunday morning with a wave of low pressure organizing along the middle Mississippi River Valley. The surface low is expected to move northeast Sunday and help spread precipitation into the greater Indianapolis and central Indiana region. With cold air in place, this precipitation is likely to fall in the form of snow.
While we have a couple of days to keep an eye on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, the likelihood of additional accumulating snow is growing with each and every model run. The “ridiculously” early call on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, based on a variety of raw numbers, medium range models, and ensembles would suggest 3-6″ of additional snow is ahead during the aforementioned time period. Again, we caution confidence ins’t as high as with system #1, due to the time period, but please be sure to stay tuned.
The GFS shows widespread snow falling across the region Sunday, with a favorable surface low track for accumulating snow across central Indiana:
Following the second snow system, model data continues to suggest we have to deal with some downright dangerous air. In fact, this would be the coldest air in many a year across central Indiana and many other locations of the Mid West and even into the Deep South. Forecast lows in the double digit below zero range are possible following the second snow maker and associated arctic front early next week….
Needless to say, I hope you like winter weather!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/01/things-progressing-as-planned-double-shot-of-snow-love/
Dec 23
We continue to be very impressed with the cold pattern that’s looming. Even before the warm up and thaw last week, we made mention that the seeds were being planted for a very cold close to December and open to 2014. Latest data continues to back this idea up. Additionally, in the longer term, there are some goings on that would suggest we better hunker down for a colder than average January. While December will finished colder than average, a colder than average January can really hurt the pocket book as “average” temperatures are obviously even colder than December.
Today’s 12z ensembles are locking in on the pattern than can deliver one shot after the other of arctic air in the 8-10 day range.
As for the snow, we still think we need to watch the models around the New Year for the threat of some southern stream energy interacting with the available cold air. That said, even without the southern stream, one must remain abreast of the challenge that a northwest flow pattern can produce.
Forecast models have a difficult time handling clipper systems in these type of patterns until within 24-48 hours within an event. Many times what appears to be a rather “harmless” clipper 4-7 days out can suddenly turn much more robust once the model catches onto the track and ability to literally squeeze out any and all available moisture from a cold air mass. Furthermore, the “normal” 10:1 snow ratio, many like to use, doesn’t apply in the least to these type systems. In cold environments you can easily get what’s called the “fluff effect” and snow ratios are more in the 20-30:1 range. Needless to say, it’s a challenging pattern that will keep us on our toes over the coming couple of weeks.
To summarize, we’re extremely confident on a colder than average close to December and open to January. We’ll have to monitor fast moving clipper systems that modeling will struggle with until right up to the event. Finally, we’ll keep a close eye on the potential interaction of the southern stream and cold air around the New Year time period for the possibility of a storm of “more significance.” Stay tuned!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/23/impressive-cold-pattern-looming-beware-of-the-northwest-flow/
Dec 19
As always, your latest 7-Day Video Forecast can be found to the right in the video player. 1.) A milder southerly air flow allowed us to remain above freezing…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/19/thursday-morning-weather-rambles/