Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

Showers Build In This Afternoon…

Screen Shot 2016-05-20 at 8.04.29 AMHighlights:

  • Showers arrive this afternoon
  • Better finish to the weekend
  • Wet pattern returns next week

Rain Gear Needed This Afternoon…The Friday-Saturday forecast has been a headache all week as models have been “waffling” back and forth between heavy rains and mostly dry weather.  As it is, we’re actually going to end up “splitting the difference.”  While it’ll rain at times this afternoon into Saturday, totals will be relatively light (0.10″-0.30″ for most).

A brighter second half of the weekend is coming as sunshine returns Sunday.  That dry period of weather will carry us into the new work week, but we caution that wet and stormy weather will return by the middle of next week.  Expect a much warmer and more humid time of things next week.

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, T-storms

Extended Period Of Dry And Warmer Weather…

Screen Shot 2016-05-18 at 8.01.27 AMHighlights:

  • Isolated afternoon shower possible
  • Extended period of sunny weather
  • Moderating temperatures

This Is More Like It…An isolated shower chance is there this afternoon into the early evening hours, particularly across western sections of the forecast area.  That said, most will remain rain-free today with increasing afternoon sunshine.  This is only the beginning of a rather extended period of dry, sunny weather across the Hoosier state.

Earlier thoughts brought rain back to the forecast to close the week, but latest model trends keep this next storm too far south and east for impacts, locally.  Instead, we’ll forecast a dry weekend with moderating temperatures.  A string of 80s is on tap next week.

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain

Monday Evening Update…

Through the first half of May, temperatures are running more than 2 degrees below average at IND.  We’re in the middle of a rather large area of below normal temperatures from the SW into the NE region.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomWe’ll remain below average through the upcoming week, but temperatures will begin to moderate over the weekend into next week.

KEYE_2016051612_nxa_384In general, we agree with the temperature anomalies above, courtesy of the GEFS.  As noted, the cool start to the period will moderate and turn warmer next week.  Unfortunately, that warmer trend won’t last and it’s likely we trend cooler around the Memorial Day weekend.

In the shorter range, light rain will spread into central IN late tonight into Tuesday.  Rainfall amounts won’t be significant, and should be generally around 0.25″, or less.

1Drier air is still expected for mid week, as high pressure builds into the region.  Needed sunshine and pleasant conditions can be expected.

2As we look forward to the weekend, modeling is still at odds with one another.  The European remains consistent on the idea of heavy rain while the GFS remains consistent on a drier solution (rain, but much lighter amounts).  That said, we note the consensus of the GFS ensemble members is more aggressive and reflects the idea of the European.  We’ll remain firm on the idea of potentially heavy rain building in Friday into Saturday.

gefs_qpf_ens_ky_23

7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Memorial Day weekend, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Rain Pushes In Tonight…

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 9.49.02 AM

Highlights:

  • Dry daytime before showers develop tonight
  • Cool times continue
  • Drier mid week
  • Late week storm system

Cool Times Remain…The work week is off to a chilly, but dry start.  While the cool times will remain, dry times, unfortunately, won’t.  Rain will arrive on the scene tonight and continue into the first half of Tuesday.  Heaviest rain totals will remain downstate, but on average we expect 0.25″-0.50″ across central IN.  Tuesday will be a chilly day with clouds lingering most of the day (keep in mind our average high now is into the lower 70s).

We’ll enjoy some much needed dry time for the mid week period, including lots of sunshine.  Temperatures will remain below average.

Our next storm system will push into the Ohio Valley late week.  Clouds will be on the increase Friday with rain building in during the PM.  Rain continues into early Saturday before we get back to drier conditions late in the day and into Sunday.  The potential is there for a period of heavy rain, but we caution forecast models aren’t in agreement on the axis of heaviest totals.  Stay tuned.

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Hello Sunshine; Remaining Cool…

Screen Shot 2016-05-15 at 10.31.48 AMHighlights:

  • Sunday sunshine
  • Early week showers
  • Bigger storm for the weekend?

Dry, But Cool…High pressure will supply dry and sunny conditions to wrap up the weekend, along with a cool, crisp feel.

Our next storm system will push into the state late Monday with showers that will likely continue into Tuesday morning, especially downstate.  Heaviest rain totals are expected across southern IN, with the potential of .25″-.50″ across central IN.  We’ll “sure up” those rain numbers in the next 24 hours, or so.

We’ll get back to dry time for mid week, but a potentially bigger storm system looms for the weekend.  Widespread rain looks to build into the Ohio Valley late Friday, continuing Saturday.

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather