The upcoming 10-day period will feature multiple storms of significance. With a neutral to negative PNA, the storm track should predominantly be on the warm side as the eastern ridge continues to flex its muscle.
“Transitional” cold will follow behind storm systems, but any sort of sustained cold will be mighty hard to come by over the aforementioned period.
A widespread chunk of the country can expect above normal precipitation in this fast paced, overall warm pattern.
Storm dates of interest include 1/16, 1/19, and 1/22-1/23.
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Month to date, IND is running slightly behind average in the precipitation department. As we look ahead at this week, and beyond, it seems like we’re poised to make up for lost time in that regard.
A hyper active Pacific jet will hand multiple storms off to the east in the coming week to 10 days. The first of which will arrive the middle of this week as low pressure moves from the central Plains into the eastern Great Lakes.
Rain will overspread the region Wednesday and we still need to monitor the possibility of a transition to wet snow Thursday.
Additional storm systems of note are dialed up Sunday night and Monday and again the middle of next week.
For some perspective on just how warm this January pattern is, the average high this time of year (in Indianapolis) is 36°. The average LOW to open up Jan ‘23 has been 42°. IND is currently running an amazing 19.2° above normal on the month.
Despite the MJO moving into the classic phases for eastern cold, the positive (and at times strongly so) EPO is looking to continue flooding the country with unseasonably mild air over the next couple weeks at a minimum. While 60° may be tough to come by, multiple 50°+ days are on tap in this pattern during the Week 2 time period as the EPO strengthens its positive hold.
The next (10) days overall will also feature drier than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.
The axis of the upper ridge will retrograde west over the upcoming week, putting our region on the outer periphery of the hot dome anchored in the Plains. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected along the West Coast and Northeast during the upcoming 10 days as a whole. Serious heat will bake the Front Range and Plains. To no surprise, an axis of above normal rain is anticipated to take up residence from the northern Rockies, southeast into the Ohio Valley and Deep South through the coming 10 day period. We expect widespread rainfall between 1”-2” over the upcoming 10 day period, but there will be localized significantly heavier totals.
Forecast Period: 07.03.22 through 07.13.22
After a quiet holiday weekend, a much more active pattern will take hold as we navigate the 1st half of July. It won’t rain everyday, but chances of benefitting from soaking rain in more widespread fashion will be on the rise as we move into the middle and latter part of this week into the following week.
Serious heat will bake the Plains while a cooler pattern dominates the Northeast region. In between, here on the home front, we’ll note heat trying to expand northeast into the Ohio Valley (and there will be several 90°+ days thrown in the 10-day period), but each time it may look like the heat is here to stay for more than a few days, we’ll likely get cooling relief from cold fronts moving southeast around the periphery of the ridge.
We’ll have to pay close attention to some of the more “mature” storm complexes including a heightened threat of damaging straight line winds give the overall pattern. It’s impossible to pin down which complexes may include a better threat of severe weather from this distance, but this threat may include a closer look as we move into the middle and latter part of the week.
