Category: 10-day

Nov 05

Sunny Start To The New Week Takes A Gloomy Turn…

Updated 11.05.23 @ 1p

You sure would be hard pressed to find more pleasant weather conditions by early November standards. Plentiful sunshine can be expected today as high temperatures head into the 60s. While we’ll add clouds (and big wind gusts) Monday, highs will zoom into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southwest gusts will approach 40 MPH at times to open the work week. We’ll keep the warm theme going through midweek.

Gusty southwest breezes can be expected as we open the work week.

A cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening. Forecast models continue to differ on rainfall amounts with this frontal passage, but excessive rain isn’t expected.

In general, this looks like a 0.10” to 0.25” type event but note the wetter European and drier GFS solutions below. Expect more agreement in the coming day or 2. Regardless, this isn’t a “big deal” type of event by any means.

Expect a more seasonable brand of air to filter in as we close the work week and head into and through the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will also return. Highs will settle back into the lower 50s with overnight lows around freezing.

Speaking of dry, the theme over the next couple weeks as a whole continues to look drier and quieter than normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunny-start-to-the-new-week-takes-a-gloomy-turn/

Oct 11

Briefly Warmer; Blustery Close To The Week With Rain And A Few Storms…

Updated 10.11.23 @ 7:42a

A cold front and associated area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley as we close the week. Briefly warmer air will surge north into the region Thursday and Friday with temperatures flirting with 80° both days.

Moisture levels will also increase as dew points creep up closer towards 60°.

A weakening area of rain and embedded storms will rumble into the state late Friday and Friday night. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected but the Storm Prediction Center outlines the far western portion of the state in a marginal risk, primarily for a wind threat. We still bracket 0.25” to 0.75” rain potential.

Speaking of wind, non-thunderstorm gusts towards 30 MPH can be expected Friday and Saturday.

With the cold core upper low hanging around, additional spotty showers, mixed with graupel, can be expected over the weekend into early next week.

The theme over the next couple weeks is for cooler than normal conditions to dominate overall.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/briefly-warmer-blustery-close-to-the-week-with-rain-and-a-few-storms/

Sep 22

Long Range Outlook Into October: Reason To Be Suspicious Of The Warm Look…

Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a

The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.

Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.

As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.

Week 1

Week 2

While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.

Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-outlook-into-october-reason-to-be-suspicious-of-the-warm-look/

Sep 19

VIDEO: Generally A Quiet And Mild Pattern; Sunday Exception?

Updated 09.19.23 @ 5a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-generally-a-quiet-and-mild-pattern-sunday-exception/

Aug 29

Pleasant Start To Our Labor Day Weekend; Significant Heat Returns Next Week…

Updated 08.29.23 @ 7:15a

A weakening band of showers will push into north-central Indiana later this evening. A quick shower May move through the city but most should remain dry as the associated secondary cold front passes through the area. This frontal passage will serve up dry, cool air reinforcements that will carry us into the start of our Labor Day weekend. Overnight lows into the 40s can be expected.

A quick shower is possible this evening, primarily north of the city

Our “hint” of fall will quickly fade through the holiday weekend and into next week as the upper ridge builds northeast. This won’t only deliver unseasonably hot and humid conditions but will keep us much drier than normal. In fact, after today, I don’t see any meaningful chances of precipitation for at least the upcoming 10-day stretch.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-start-to-our-labor-day-weekend-significant-heat-returns-next-week/