The pattern remains in a transient state. An upper ridge will build over the region late week into the weekend. With this will come the hottest air of the season (multiple days of lower to middle 90s starting Friday, continuing into early next week). The hottest days appear slated for Friday and Saturday. Heat indices will approach 105 degrees.
However, just as fast as the ridge builds over the area, we see the “want” to position itself over the Rocky Mountain region.
Hot dome will provide a couple days of highs in the middle 90s Friday-Saturday. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits
Note the difference of the ridge position by Day 10. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits
While some oppressive heat and humidity will impact our local area to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend, this is a pattern where it’s incredibly difficult to deal with any sort of one particular weather pattern for any time of substance. Looking forward to August, we don’t see this changing. Remember that word we leaned on to begin summer? “Transient” remains the best way to describe the pattern moving forward, as well.
Additionally, this is a pattern that should result in a return of wet and active times as we put a wrap on July and welcome August. It’s impossible to nail down the precise details of any one particular neighborhood’s rainfall numbers from this distance, but understand the pattern is one that should yield more locally hefty rains in the weeks ahead.
To close, we’ll leave you with a look at the latest PNA pattern. This has been the primary driver of our weather this summer, and it also argues any sort of dry, hot weather doesn’t last. Note the positive PNA returning to close July. This also lines up well with our idea of unsettled times returning…
Ensemble data continues to suggest that the mean ridge position (hot dome) develops over the eastern portion of the country early next week before slowly retrograding northwest with time.
By the middle and latter portions of next week, the hot dome is set up in a position that will yield an extended stretch of hot temperatures across the state, including multiple mid-90 degree highs across central IN.
Given the current look of the ridge position, this would also be a rather dry pattern, as well, as the storm and rain track would shift north across the Canadian border into the northern Great Lakes states. (Follow that 588 line above for a good indicator of the storm track).
One always has to be careful in trying to predict the timing of the ridge breaking down/ overall placement this time of year (models can struggle), but for now it appears as if we really heat things up and dry things out as we move through next week- especially the middle and latter portions of the week.
The teleconnections aren’t much help in trying to generate longer term thoughts. They would favor more of a “normal” period temperature-wise, locally. (BTW, thanks to the fine folks at MAD US Weather and ESRL for the data below).
Looking at some of the model data, the general consensus is for a warm look to go through the back half of the month, but we caution that we can’t simply “broad brush” the forecast through the EOM as warm and relatively quiet (a note on that in a moment).
As mentioned above, despite an overall warm look on the models there will likely be periods of cooler “jabs” and it sure looks like a rather transient pattern to us across the Mid West and Ohio Valley, featuring more of the sustained heat across the Southwest region. Transient patterns usually also yield for potential wetness and we note the GFS Ensembles trending in that direction to wrap up the month.
In the shorter term, there will also be localized heavy downpours, but it’s a continued case of “haves and have nots.” There won’t be any particular rhyme or reason to the specific placement of heavy, gully-washer type showers and storms mid week.
