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Category: 10-day
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/07/video-election-day-weather-and-looking-ahead/
Oct 13
VIDEO: An Active Autumn Pattern Is Here…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/13/video-an-active-autumn-pattern-is-here/
Oct 10
Mid Week Showers Followed By A Pop Of Cool Air…
Mid and high level clouds are streaming overhead this evening and will help set up a brilliant sunset across central IN.
Tuesday will remain rain-free across the region, along with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels (mid 70s after a low in the lower 50s).
Moisture will continue to be transported northward Wednesday, courtesy of a gusty SW breeze at times. As the approaching cold front interacts with the moisture return, scattered showers will “blossom” across the area Wednesday night into the wee morning hours Thursday.
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive; generally 0.10″-0.25″ during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time frame.
The cool air flowing in behind the front is impressive though. In fact, highs both Thursday and Friday will likely only reach the lower 60s (if that).
Despite the chilly air that will be with us to wrap up the work week, ensemble data is in excellent agreement on a significant warmer than average regime developing under a big eastern ridge in the 6-10 day. This will likely promote highs into the lower 80s next week for a few days. Impressive, no doubt, considering we’ll be rumbling through the second half of October by that point.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/10/mid-week-showers-followed-by-a-pop-of-cool-air/
Oct 06
Thursday Evening Rambles…
1.) Matthew is rumbling towards the east coast of FL this evening and data continues to suggest a landfall near West Palm Beach late tonight or during the predawn hours Friday. Regardless, an extended period of hurricane conditions, beach erosion, surge, and heavy rain await the FL peninsula.
For the Space Coast region, this very well could be the most significant hurricane the area has seen. Our thoughts and prayers continue for our family and friends in Matthew’s path.
Radar around 8p Thursday.
Forecast radar 1a Friday.
Most model data likes the “loop de loop” idea and potentially brings Matthew back in for a second FL landfall early next week (in a much weaker state, thankfully, due to upwelling and shear).
2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week. While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning. A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible. We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day. Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.
A chilly start is anticipated Saturday morning.
The weekend into early next week will remain pleasant, with chilly, clear nights and lots of sunshine during the day, along with cool afternoon highs.
3.) The longer term pattern through at least the middle of October is one that features anomalous warmth and dry conditions. In fact, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility for afternoon highs to reach close to 80 once again towards Day 10…. We shall see.
We warm back up above average in the 6-10 Day period
A mainly dry pattern continues
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/06/thursday-evening-rambles-3/
Sep 13
VIDEO: Two Cold Fronts This Week And Late Sept. Talk…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/13/video-two-cold-fronts-this-week-and-late-sept-talk/
Sep 06
Tuesday Evening Weather Notebook…
It’s been a cool and dry start to the month of September. Through the first few days, IND is running 0.70° below normal and 0.44″ below average precipitation.
The upper ridge currently in place will deliver more late summer heat through the end of the work week. It’ll remain mostly dry, as well.
Much better rain and storm chances will have to be built into our forecast Friday into Saturday, courtesy of a cold front moving into the region.
A much cooler regime will settle into the region over the weekend. Highs behind the front in the 70s with lows in the 50s will be common- after rain potential of 1″-1.5″ for most.
A reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive the middle of the following week. Early indications suggest the second shot of fall-like air will be even cooler than this weekends’ and could feature widespread 40s at night.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/06/tuesday-evening-weather-notebook/
Sep 03
Warmth Next Week Gives Way To A Cool Mid Month…
The refreshingly cool couple days we’ve recently enjoyed will begin to give way to moderating temperatures today. Humidity levels will remain pleasant and it’ll be a great Labor Day weekend to spend time outdoors. Highs will top out around 80 today and into the middle 80s Sunday. Labor Day will feature the mercury climbing closer to the 90 degree mark. – Fitting, I suppose, for the unofficial end to summer.
Humidity levels will be on the uptick come Monday evening and Tuesday as Gulf moisture is transported northward.
It’ll be a downright hot week, as well. Temperatures will top out around 90 through the end of the short work week.
As we rumble into next weekend and the following week indications continue to point towards wetter and cooler times.
After a dry week ahead, rain and storms will come with that increased humidity next weekend.
Early numbers off the press suggest 1″-2″ rains possible next weekend.
The increased rain and storm chances signal another shift in the pattern towards a cooler one just beyond the Day 10 period. From experience, I would look for this trough around mid month to trend deeper (more significant) as time draws closer.
It’s possible the first push of widespread 40s loom around the middle of the month. Time will tell…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/03/warmth-next-week-gives-way-to-a-cool-mid-month/
Aug 04
Storms For Some; More Winter Chatter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/04/storms-for-some-more-winter-chatter/
Jul 26
Stormy For Some This Morning; Transient Pattern Into August…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/26/stormy-for-some-this-morning-transient-pattern-into-august/
Jul 21
Thursday Evening Rambles…
1.) A big ole ridge will supply oppressive heat and humidity across the Mid West this weekend. Unseasonably hot temperatures will combine with downright “soupy” air to create heat indices between 105-110 degrees across central IN this weekend. Take it easy and implement frequent breaks if your plans take you outdoors.
2.) Similar to what we’re seeing on radar this evening, thunderstorms will also make an appearance from time to time for some. With an atmosphere loaded with moisture, any storm that develops will be plenty capable of producing “frog straggler” type rainfall rates. Perhaps there will be a couple periods of more concentrated storm activity, focused on late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and again late Saturday night-Sunday morning. We’ll keep an eye on things.
3.) The pattern is one (as has been the case all summer) that’s transient and the situation that develops to wrap up July and open August is an all-too-familiar look around these parts: NW flow aloft that offers storm potential, along with seasonal to slightly warmer than average. It’s a wet look, overall.
10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com
This is what the upper air pattern should look like as we close July- 10 days from now (hard to believe)!
4.) Looking further ahead, the latest JMA Weeklies continue to suggest the most sustained hot pattern should remain across the west as we rumble deeper into August. That’s not to say we won’t deal with periods of hot weather here at times, but sustained heat will be hard to come by with such a pattern…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/21/thursday-evening-rambles-2/