An upper level low pressure system will track northeast today into tonight, and as it does, look for more numerous showers and embedded thunder to develop. Some localized heavier downpours are a good bet this evening across central Indiana.
Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.
While we’ll have to contend with a few showers Saturday, overall, the day should be drier compared to today and what lies ahead Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, we’re monitoring the potential of a couple of storms reaching strong to severe levels to close the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center includes central portions of the state in a “marginal” risk of severe with their update Friday morning. It wouldn’t surprise us if a portion of the marginal risk is upgraded to a “slight” risk in future updates. We’ll fine tune storm timing over the next 24 hours.
As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month. Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime. From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month. Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary. While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.
…and a year-to-date that looks like this:
…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers! Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.
This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).
As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.
Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans. An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon! Can you say “perfection?”
Temperatures will remain cooler than average, but that late-April sun will feel mighty nice, especially after a couple days of “showery” overcast and 50s.
High pressure will quickly build in thereafter and lead to the best weather weekend so far this spring. Saturday and Sunday should feature plentiful sunshine both days. Morning lows will be chilly (upper 30s to lower 40s for most), but daytime highs will zoom into the 60s both days.
As we look ahead, warmth will continue to build as we open May. Lower 80s seem to be a good bet as we move into next week, but before we get into sustained warmth, another “setback” or two seems to be a good bet. We note the EPS showing this nicely as cooler anomalies return by Week 2.
It remains a drier than overall pattern over the upcoming couple weeks. The next storm of any significance is slated for an arrival late next week (Thursday time frame).
After a chilly work week (relative to average), 60s will return this weekend and temperatures will zip into the lower and middle 70s early next week, before approaching 80° by the middle of next week.
Despite the showers that will impact central Indiana today, it’s mostly a dry pattern over the upcoming 10-day period. Additional rain chances will continue Tuesday (scattered, nuisance-level) and with a frontal passage Friday. With that said, 10-day rainfall will only run between one half and three quarters of an inch for most of the region.
II. We’ll turn cooler to close the week, but with an increasingly sunny time of things, we forecast a very pleasant open to the weekend. High pressure will remain in control of our weather into early next week. Really the only item of interest will be a gusty easterly breeze at times Sunday into Monday. We’ll watch a storm system get shunted south and stay dry here. Overnight lows will remain chilly through the weekend.
III. The next opportunity for meaningful precipitation should arrive the middle of next week (Tuesday-Wednesday) time frame, and even this doesn’t look like a big deal. From this distance, it seems like 0.10″ to 0.25″ will come from that system.
IV. As we look ahead, the relative cold looks to relax as we put a wrap on April and open May. Additionally, we also note the EPS painting much of the northern tier into the Ohio Valley with a drier than normal signal. Sure looks like conditions are finally improving for #Plant18 to get underway in earnest…
Model data continues to show this idea has merit and now we’ll have to handle the individual storms as they come. As we’d expect late in the winter, challenges abound, but this is a pattern that has potential. Can we turn potential into reality? That’s the question that will be answered over the next couple weeks.
The next item on the agenda will arrive Friday afternoon into Friday night. It, too, should spread snow across a portion of the Ohio Valley. With this being in the Day 6 time period, expect fine tuning as we move through the upcoming week.
Finally, a third system will impact the area about this time next week, and it’s this system that appears to be the most significant of the group. Far too early to get detailed, but it certainly warrants our attention.
The overall pattern we’ll “enjoy” over the next couple of weeks is one that’s been lacking for the better part of the past few winters. With blocking in place, storm systems trying to lift into the Great Lakes will be “forced” south and result in an active time of things around these parts- including the east coast, as well, over the better part of the upcoming 10-15 days.
II. We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.
While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.
Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots. Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.
However, big changes begin to take place this weekend and will remain intact for the majority of the next couple weeks. The mean trough position will back into the west while ridging takes hold across the east. This will feature temperatures that will push to above average values and lead to an active and moist southwesterly flow.
Over the upcoming (10) days, temperatures may reach 50°, or greater, on 3 to 4 of those days. Compared to how frigid we’ve been (already had 7 mornings this month with sub-zero lows), this will feel like a heat wave.