Category: 10-day

Jun 14

Weekly Severe And #AGwx Outlook…

Updated 06.14.22 @ 7:33a

After getting beaten down this weekend, the upper ridge will flex it’s muscle yet again next week, significantly influencing our pattern.
Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected given the 500mb pattern above from the Plains into the Southeast and up into the Great Lakes.
Widespread drier than normal conditions are anticipated from the Plains, Southeast, and up into the Ohio Valley as the ridge dominates.

Forecast Period: 06.14.22 through 06.24.22

A cold front will slide through the area Thursday with the potential of a widely scattered shower or storm. The bigger story will be a significant reduction of heat and humidity as we close out the work week and head through the weekend. After dealing with heat indices in the 105º+ range today and Wednesday, lows that drop back into the 50s this weekend sure will feel nice. After Thursday, dry conditions should dominate through the weekend.

The upper ridge will then expand northeast once again as we head into the new work week. You know what this means, oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Like this week, the most oppressive conditions come in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame before another cold front returns us to cooler, more seasonal temperatures next weekend. Get the idea that we’re locked into a “transitional” pattern for the foreseeable future?

From a rainfall perspective, we’re in that time of year where it’s all but impossible to predict rainfall amounts down to a specific backyard (case in point yesterday where many north and eastern Indianapolis ‘burbs clocked in a quick 2″+, while others on the south and west side didn’t see a drop of rain). From an overall perspective, rainfall amounts will run well below normal over the next 7-10 days. We will keep an eye on storm clusters that may round the periphery of the upper ridge early next week, and these could influence our weather Monday into Tuesday (similar to what we dealt with yesterday).

As we look beyond the 10 day period, the ‘mean’ upper pattern should feature the ridge pulling back west and placing our immediate region into a northwesterly flow aloft to close the month of June. This should translate to relatively wetter, cooler times.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ to 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/06/14/weekly-severe-and-agwx-outlook-2/

May 30

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook: Tracking 2 Cold Fronts This Week…

Updated 05.30.22 @ 8a

With the official “unofficial” 🙂 start to summer upon us, it’s time we start to once again produce our weekly #AGwx reports. Each week, these updates will focus on the overall temperature and precipitation pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days, along with bigger severe weather or tropical items of note when needed.

The upcoming 10 days will continue to feature a very transient pattern, locally.
Overall, temperatures will average close to seasonal norms when all totaled up over the upcoming 10 days, but the way in which we get to this point will feature plenty of “ups and downs,” relative to average.
Precipitation will run very close or just slightly below normal values during the time period.

Forecast Period: 05.30.22 through 06.09.22

Our weather pattern will start off very quiet as high pressure continues to dominate. We’ll notice a bump in humidity values daily leading up to a frontal passage Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This front will deliver scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Mid West and Ohio Valley Wednesday. While there could be a couple of stronger storms, the severe aspect of this system is expected to be greatly diminished when compared to what our neighbors in the northern Plains and upper Mid West will see over the next couple of days.

The frontal system will pass through rather quickly and we’ll get back to a much less humid, cooler airmass Thursday, continuing into the first half of the weekend. That’s when we’ll begin to track system #2 with eyes on our immediate area Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected for the 2nd half of the weekend, but it won’t rain the entire time. This will likely set the stage for a more active period to close out the 10 day as a persistent southwesterly air flow dominates.

10-day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″ to 2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/30/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-tracking-2-cold-fronts-this-week/

Oct 31

November Opens With A “Hint” Of What May Be Lurking, But Pattern Likely Not Ready To Lock-In Just Yet…

Updated 10.31.21 @ 3:06p

First and foremost, here’s wishing you and your family a very happy, safe, and fun Halloween. Late October can sure deliver “tricks” in the weather department around these parts, but thankfully we’re going to be treated to very pleasant conditions this year as the kiddos hit the streets this evening.

As we look ahead to November, unseasonably chilly air will settle into the East through the week ahead. The MJO is not a factor presently and is forecast to remain in the “null phase” through the upcoming couple weeks (at least). As such, we’ll lean heavier on the EPO/ PNA tandem to drive the pattern. For a moment, these teleconnections will help power widespread unseasonably chilly air as they are aligned in such a manner (- EPO and +PNA), but as we head towards Week 2, note how both teleconnections head towards warmer phases.

Ensemble guidance sees the chilly short-term pattern moderating in the Week 2 time period and we agree.

Overall, the upcoming (10) days should also feature a much drier regime than what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Rainfall is forecast below normal through the first 1/3 of November.

While the growing season will come to an end in the week ahead and we continue to believe this chilly short-term pattern is a “hint” to what awaits towards the 2nd half of November, that PNA/ EPO combo suggests we’re not quite ready for the more sustained, and potentially dramatic, pattern change just yet…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/31/november-opens-with-a-hint-of-what-may-be-lurking-but-pattern-likely-not-ready-to-lock-in-just-yet/

Sep 23

VIDEO: Improving Conditions To Close The Work Week; Changeable Week Ahead…

Updated 09.23.21 @ 7:44a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/23/video-improving-conditions-to-close-the-work-week-changeable-week-ahead/

Mar 21

March To-Date And Looking Ahead…

March to-date is running warmer and wetter than average across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the central and eastern part of the country.

Officially, Indianapolis is running 5.3° above normal, month-to-date.

For comparative purposes, our March Temperature Outlook is above. It’ll be interesting to see how everything shakes out by month’s end.

We anticipated a wet month, as well, into the middle MS Valley into the Ohio Valley, and eastern Lakes/ Northeast.

Indianapolis is running a little more than 1″ above normal in the rainfall department, and this will grow larger as we progress through the next (10) days.

This upcoming week, alone, we expect storm systems to deliver rain Sunday PM, Tuesday PM, and again late Thursday into Friday. Widespread central Indiana rainfall totals are currently pegged between 1″ and 1.5″, but given the pattern, it wouldn’t surprise me to see those numbers increase as we go forward. Thankfully, there aren’t any storms on the immediate horizon that look to be big severe weather producers, locally.

The remainder of March looks wetter than normal from the TN Valley, into the Ohio Valley and Northeast.

Despite this weekend’s chill, the balance of what’s left in the month should run well above average across the eastern half of the country.

More on what we think April will provide a bit later…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/21/march-to-date-and-looking-ahead/

Dec 29

VIDEO: Wet Close To The Weekend; Wintry Threats Loom…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/29/video-wet-close-to-the-weekend-wintry-threats-loom/

Oct 21

VIDEO: Sifting Through The Noise As We Close October And Open November…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/21/video-sifting-through-the-noise-as-we-close-october-and-open-november/

Oct 03

As #Harvest19 Kicks Off, Timing Out Storms Into Mid-October…

Today is the day of a significant and more permanent transition from our “bonus” summer to a cooler journey ahead.

The ‘mean’ upper air pattern will feature a trough over the eastern portion of the country and associated temperature pattern more like we’d expect for early to mid October.

Days 3-8
Days 8-13

With the cooler air, we’ll also notice a more active pattern, as well. A model blend paints the potential of 0.50″ to 1.50″ of rain over the upcoming 10-day stretch. More specifically, we’re targeting dates for frontal passages on the following:

I. Thursday, 10.3

II. Sunday, 10.6

III. Friday, 10.11

The Sunday frontal passage and late Week 2 cold front will offer up better chances of more widespread precipitation.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/03/as-harvest19-kicks-off-timing-out-storms-into-mid-october/

Sep 12

Thursday Morning Rambles: Warmth Continues To Dominate Over The Next 10 Days…

A “cold front” will pass Friday evening. Despite the threat of a couple widely scattered storms this afternoon/ evening, a broken line of storms may accompany the front Friday afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread rain or storm activity with the passage of this front and some yards won’t see a drop of rain over the next couple of days.

A couple of storms may fire up ahead of the frontal boundary Friday afternoon, but widespread rain isn’t expected.
We’ll notice a wind shift from the southwest to west behind the frontal boundary Friday evening.

While somewhat drier air will briefly work into the region Saturday, temperatures will remain well above average. The humidity will return next week.

As we look ahead over next week, generally quiet conditions are anticipated. The big story in the weather department will be the continuation of summer-like heat and an active time of things in the tropics.

Let’s start with the tropics. Guidance overnight has trended further east with the disturbance that at one time appeared it was heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, our East Coast friends should take note of the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Some model guidance spins this up into a hurricane over the upcoming weekend as it at least “flirts” with the Southeast US coast (perhaps in an eerily similar fashion as Dorian). The item in the open Atlantic is another we’ll have to keep close eyes on for Week 2 for the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the upper pattern is a favorable one for the Southeast US coastline to experience a landfall over the next couple of weeks…

That same pattern through the next couple of weeks is also one that will continue to produce an “extended summer” across the East.

As we look ahead to next weekend, there’s the potential of a stronger cold front offering up more organized rain/ storm chances followed by a stronger cool shot. We’ll have more on this threat in our Weekly AG/ Severe Weather Outlook published this weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/12/thursday-morning-rambles-warmth-continues-to-dominate-over-the-next-10-days/

Sep 09

A Teleconnection Tale…

Before we display the mean upper level pattern ahead over the next couple weeks, let’s look at some of the various teleconnections to gain some insight behind what’s driving the overall pattern.

EPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

WPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

MJO- heading into Phase 6 with a look like it wants to rumble into Phase 7. This is a warm signal this time of year.

With the warm signals above, it should come as no surprise of the next couple weeks offering up a predominant eastern ridge.

Days 6-10

Days 10-14

While a couple of weak cold fronts may lead to somewhat cooler air briefly, the balance of the next couple of weeks looks to offer up much more in the way of summer-like heat and well above normal warmth. It should also be noted that the overall pattern looks like a dry one over the next 10-14 days, as well.

Don’t put away that swim suit just yet!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/09/a-teleconnection-tale/

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