Category: 10-day

Aug 28

About As Quiet As It Gets; Another Round Of Major League Heat On Deck As We Move Into Early September…

Updated 08.28.23 @ 12:25p

A secondary cold front will drop southeast across the state Tuesday. While we’re not anticipating any sort of widespread significant rain and storms with this frontal passage, it will be the best opportunity for rain over the next 10-14 days, overall. Best chances of precipitation will come after 5p from a weakening line of showers and storms to our northwest.

Best chances of measurable rain will be to the northwest of immediate central Indiana.

Reinforcing dry, cool air will filter into the region as we close the work week and get set to head into the Labor Day weekend. Here’s a bit of advice: please be sure to make time to get outside and enjoy this pleasant airmass as major changes await over the weekend and into next week. Until then, our late week stretch will feature overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The upper ridge will begin to build back northeast over the holiday weekend and with it will come another round of unseasonably hot, humid conditions. While it might not be quite as miserable as what we dealt with last week, chances are that we’ll have to contend with several days of 100°+ heat indices and “jungle-like” humidity with an extended period of rain-free days deep into the Week 2 timeframe. Buckle up.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/28/about-as-quiet-as-it-gets-another-round-of-major-league-heat-on-deck-as-we-move-into-early-september/

Aug 17

Cold Front Offers Up PM Storms & Reinforces Pleasant Weekend Airmass; Heat Is On Next Week…

Updated 08.17.23 @ 6:04a

A quiet start to the day will give way to a noisy lunchtime period as a line of thunderstorms drops in from the northwest.

Vivid lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours can be expected.

The Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a ‘marginal’ risk of severe today. Widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated with this frontal passage.

Our unseasonably cool, pleasant airmass we’ve enjoyed the past couple days will be reinforced with this frontal passage. Lows tomorrow and Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s in outlying areas. Dry and sunny conditions will compliment the early fall-like air. Soak it up as a period of unseasonably hot weather still awaits next week.

The byproduct of the sprawling ridge above? A week ahead with highs well into the 90s and an extended period of dry, sunny weather.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/17/cold-front-offers-up-pm-storms-heat-is-on-next-week/

Aug 15

Changes Are Brewing…

Updated 08.15.23 @ 8a

The short-term will continue to be highlighted by unseasonably cool and refreshing air.

However those that aren’t ready to be done with the summer heat are in luck. Significant warming will take place next week. Yes, we’ll replace those cool, crisp overnight lows in the 50s with lows only in the 70s and highs into the lower 90s for multiple days next week as an upper level ridge expands and builds overhead.

Next week will also feature significantly drier and calmer conditions compared to what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Hot and dry will rule the day, overall. As of now, most of, if not the entire week should be rain-free.

The next question becomes the staying power of the heat as we flip the page into meteorological fall. As a whole, I’m leaning towards at least the first half of fall running well above normal. That doesn’t mean the region isn’t at risk of an early frost threat this year (byproduct of the strengthening Nino event heading into fall and drivers behind what have powered the recent wet times. Speaking of wet, IND is now close to 1.5” above normal month-to-date).

As we push closer towards Labor Day weekend, the long range European data is “cooling” things closer towards seasonal levels after next week’s heat. Hard to disagree with that approach at least for a time before we begin to warm things back up, compared to normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/15/changes-are-brewing/

Jul 21

VIDEO: Breath Of Fresh Air To Open The Weekend; Heat Builds For A Time Next Week, Discussing Staying Power…

Updated 07.21.23 @ 7:26a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/21/video-breath-of-fresh-air-to-open-the-weekend-heat-builds-for-a-time-next-week-discussing-staying-power/

Jun 22

Digging Our Heels Into The Pattern Over The Next 2 Weeks…

Updated 06.22.23 @ 4:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/22/digging-our-heels-into-the-pattern-over-the-next-2-weeks/

Jan 15

Active Storm Track; Sustained Cold Tough To Find…

Updated 01.15.23 @ 8:44a

The upcoming 10-day period will feature multiple storms of significance. With a neutral to negative PNA, the storm track should predominantly be on the warm side as the eastern ridge continues to flex its muscle.

“Transitional” cold will follow behind storm systems, but any sort of sustained cold will be mighty hard to come by over the aforementioned period.

A widespread chunk of the country can expect above normal precipitation in this fast paced, overall warm pattern.

Storm dates of interest include 1/16, 1/19, and 1/22-1/23.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/15/active-storm-track-sustained-cold-tough-to-find/

Jan 13

VIDEO: Pacific Pattern Keeps Things Busy Into The Week Ahead…

Updated 01.13.23 @ 7:21a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/13/video-pacific-pattern-keeps-things-busy-into-the-week-ahead/

Jan 09

After A Quiet Open To January, Busy Times Return…

Updated 01.09.23 @ 6:56a

Month to date, IND is running slightly behind average in the precipitation department. As we look ahead at this week, and beyond, it seems like we’re poised to make up for lost time in that regard.

A hyper active Pacific jet will hand multiple storms off to the east in the coming week to 10 days. The first of which will arrive the middle of this week as low pressure moves from the central Plains into the eastern Great Lakes.

Rain will overspread the region Wednesday and we still need to monitor the possibility of a transition to wet snow Thursday.

Additional storm systems of note are dialed up Sunday night and Monday and again the middle of next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/09/after-a-quiet-open-to-january-busy-times-return/

Jan 06

“January Thaw” Is An Understatement…

Updated 01.06.23 @ 7a

For some perspective on just how warm this January pattern is, the average high this time of year (in Indianapolis) is 36°. The average LOW to open up Jan ‘23 has been 42°. IND is currently running an amazing 19.2° above normal on the month.

Despite the MJO moving into the classic phases for eastern cold, the positive (and at times strongly so) EPO is looking to continue flooding the country with unseasonably mild air over the next couple weeks at a minimum. While 60° may be tough to come by, multiple 50°+ days are on tap in this pattern during the Week 2 time period as the EPO strengthens its positive hold.

The next (10) days overall will also feature drier than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/06/january-thaw-is-an-understatement/

Jul 03

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.03.22 @ 6:40a

The axis of the upper ridge will retrograde west over the upcoming week, putting our region on the outer periphery of the hot dome anchored in the Plains.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected along the West Coast and Northeast during the upcoming 10 days as a whole. Serious heat will bake the Front Range and Plains.
To no surprise, an axis of above normal rain is anticipated to take up residence from the northern Rockies, southeast into the Ohio Valley and Deep South through the coming 10 day period.
We expect widespread rainfall between 1”-2” over the upcoming 10 day period, but there will be localized significantly heavier totals.

Forecast Period: 07.03.22 through 07.13.22

After a quiet holiday weekend, a much more active pattern will take hold as we navigate the 1st half of July. It won’t rain everyday, but chances of benefitting from soaking rain in more widespread fashion will be on the rise as we move into the middle and latter part of this week into the following week.

Serious heat will bake the Plains while a cooler pattern dominates the Northeast region. In between, here on the home front, we’ll note heat trying to expand northeast into the Ohio Valley (and there will be several 90°+ days thrown in the 10-day period), but each time it may look like the heat is here to stay for more than a few days, we’ll likely get cooling relief from cold fronts moving southeast around the periphery of the ridge.

We’ll have to pay close attention to some of the more “mature” storm complexes including a heightened threat of damaging straight line winds give the overall pattern. It’s impossible to pin down which complexes may include a better threat of severe weather from this distance, but this threat may include a closer look as we move into the middle and latter part of the week.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1”-2”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/03/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-44/

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