It’s been a very busy day and I apologize for the late post. Storms this evening reached severe limits north of the city. In particular, Boone County was hard hit,…
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Highlights:
Forecast radar (above), courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows showers and thunderstorms pressing into the state early Monday morning. This is all part of a frontal boundary that will slip into northern IN Monday before stalling through the mid week stretch. Most widespread coverage of showers and storms will be confined to northern portions of the state, but we’ll also include a mention of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for central IN Monday. Traveling north this week? Plan on better rain chances as compared to that we’ll see.
The majority of the upcoming work week will feature dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. A prolonged southerly and southwesterly air flow will provide an increasingly muggy feel to the air this week.
Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will roll in over the weekend thanks to an approaching storm system.
The majority of our mid to long range forecast data suggests the warm pattern we’ve enjoyed to kick off May will continue deep into the month. Ensemble guidance (above) shows a snap shot of temperature anomalies through the 19th of May. As you can see, temperatures will be significantly above normal through the first ten days, or so, of the month.
The past couple weeks have been unseasonably cool across our region- particularly the last week: That said, the overall weather pattern is in the process of transitioning to…
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Highlights:
A vigorous upper level low will pivot through the Ohio Valley Thursday. This will provide the threat of a shower really at any point through the day. Unseasonably cool air and a gusty wind will also be in place. This will be a brief set back from what, otherwise, is a full-blown burst into spring/ early summer type weather over the weekend into next week.
We’ll keep a very close eye on the placement of a ridge to our southeast early next week as this will mean the difference between a mostly dry and warmer pattern and one that could, potentially, be periodically stormy. As things stand now, models are trending drier, with the so-called “ring of fire” pattern placed just north of central Indiana. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Simulated radar (above) shows scattered showers dotting the region Thursday, thanks to a potent upper low moving through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably chilly air (forecast highs in the mid/ upper 50s shown below) and gusty winds will also accompany this system. Rainfall amounts will be light for most and generally under one tenth of an inch.
Our weather early next week will largely depend on the strength and placement of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast region. Models today have trended drier for our immediate region and, as such, we’ll follow suit with our forecast above. That said, we note models can struggle with the precise details of these patterns in the mid range and things could trend back towards the direction of stormier times. Stay tuned.
Regardless of storm chances next week, temperatures will be drastically warmer than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple weeks. Ensembles (below) show the warmer than average pattern engulfing the region and a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Highlights:
Wednesday will get off to a chilly start, but we’ll be several degrees warmer than recent mornings. We should see enough sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower to middle 60s before clouds increase and thicken by evening. This is in association with an upper level low that will track over the region Thursday. This UL will serve up scattered showers Thursday (0.10″ – 0.25″ rain potential in spots) and it’ll be another unseasonably cool day.
Brighter days are ahead as we progress into the weekend with increasing sunshine Friday and continuing Saturday.
Moisture will increase Sunday into Monday as our wind flow backs around to the southwest. This will pull increasing moisture into the Ohio Valley and we’ll watch for a couple of disturbances to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The big story next week will be a much warmer pattern.
After a dry Wednesday, forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows showers building into central IN Wednesday night and Thursday morning. It won’t rain the entire day Thursday, but scattered showers will dot the landscape at times. As mentioned above, rainfall totals will be light. It’ll be a cool day (mid to upper 50s for highs as shown below) with showers, clouds, and a gusty north wind in play.
Our air flow will back to the southwest and help transport a more humid brand of air into the region early next week. This warmer, moist air mass will likely be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.
