Gorgeous Open To The Week…

screen-shot-2016-09-11-at-10-24-00-am Highlights:

Sun-filled days
Crisp air
Midweek showers
Saturday rain

Fall Feel…Sprawling high pressure will supply a dry open to the week, complete with plentiful sunshine and dry air. Conditions will be beautiful to spend time outdoors- very much like early fall.

Our next weather maker will scoot through the region Wednesday with scattered showers. Once the front blows through, reinforcing cool air will press into the state Wednesday evening. A few reports of upper 40s will be likely away from the city Thursday and Friday morning.

While timing is still a bit up in the air at this distance, Saturday is looking unsettled as another cold front blows through. (Get the idea we’re in an active period)?

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 0.00″
Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Bill McMillan September 11, 2016 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Drier, Cooler Air On Our Doorstep…

screen-shot-2016-09-10-at-9-20-41-am Highlights:

Greatest storm coverage and intensity this morning
Turning much drier and cooler
Reinforcing mid week cool air

Turning Much Drier This Evening…It’s been a wet and stormy time of things as of late. Locally heavy rain will continue to accompany stronger storms this morning, but we note greatest storm coverage should begin to shift ENE as the morning progresses into afternoon. Renewed showers will likely develop this afternoon as the cold front moves through the state. We’ll then enjoy a marked NW wind shift this evening and that will help push much drier and cooler air in to help create a true fall feel tonight. The second half of the weekend look beautiful- sunny and crisp!

Much needed dry time will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week. We note a reinforcing push of cool air mid week that could spark a shower, but rainfall amounts don’t look impressive (the air will be much drier than the “soupy” feel we’ve been dealing with for the past week). A more significant rain-maker should arrive next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 0.00″
Rainfall: 1″-2″

Bill McMillan September 10, 2016 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms

Periods Of Heavy Rain Then Much Cooler…

A “wavy” frontal boundary will be located over our region through the next 36-48 hours before getting a “shove” south from a cold front Saturday.

The combination of the stationary front along with a tropical-rich air mass in place will be enough in and of itself to produce periods of heavy rain today into Saturday morning. Add in a couple of disturbances moving along the boundary and the heavy rain prospects grow even higher. A strong to severe storm also can’t be ruled out-primarily this afternoon and again Friday afternoon.

Already this morning (6:30a) we note widespread showers and embedded thunder impacting IL and northern IN.

As mentioned, the air mass is plenty “juicy” to fuel locally heavy rain through the period. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will surge north of 2″ for all of central IN later today.

While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of heavy rain will remain in our forecast today through Saturday morning. Widespread 1″-2″ totals will be common, with locally heavier totals.

High pressure will build overhead Sunday and lead to quite the change. A much cooler and drier air mass will return along with brighter skies to wrap up the weekend.

Lows in the middle 50s will be common for the city, itself, Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Upper 40s to lower 50s are a good bet away from the metro.

Bill McMillan September 8, 2016 Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms

Tuesday Evening Weather Notebook…

It’s been a cool and dry start to the month of September. Through the first few days, IND is running 0.70° below normal and 0.44″ below average precipitation.

The upper ridge currently in place will deliver more late summer heat through the end of the work week. It’ll remain mostly dry, as well.

Much better rain and storm chances will have to be built into our forecast Friday into Saturday, courtesy of a cold front moving into the region.

A much cooler regime will settle into the region over the weekend. Highs behind the front in the 70s with lows in the 50s will be common- after rain potential of 1″-1.5″ for most.

A reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive the middle of the following week. Early indications suggest the second shot of fall-like air will be even cooler than this weekends’ and could feature widespread 40s at night.

Bill McMillan September 6, 2016 10-day, Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

New SST CA Model Weighs In On Winter…

The updated Sea Surface Temperature Constructed Analog model is in for the winter. In short, it suggests a slow start to winter gains momentum and turns much colder as mid and late winter arrive. It’s also a stormy look, locally, and would imply big-hitter potential in the Ohio Valley.

500mb pattern

*Note how the trough becomes more established over the central and east during the January through March period.

Temperature anomalies

The consistency is remarkable on the bullish cold signal for the central and east for the January-March time frame. We note high agreement, month-over-month, on the J-M time frame being significantly cold.