Feb 09
Updated 02.09.23 @ 8:53p
After a bitter Christmas period, the “snap back” came on with authority. The mild start to the year has carried into February. A look at the past (30) days:
Despite multiple attempts, the cold “jabs” haven’t had any staying power. In the short term (upcoming 10-14 days), an overall milder than normal regime will carry the day.
With that said, longer range teleconnections are providing clues that the pattern may, indeed, begin to resemble a more sustained colder than normal temperature regime by late February, continuing through the bulk of March:
Negative NAO:
Negative WPO:
Negative AO:
Negative EPO:
Then, perhaps most significant, the MJO is showing signs of cycling in Phase 8 to close February and open March.
Both periods feature a cold, to much colder than normal, pattern in Phase 8:
MJO Phase 8: Feb
MJO Phase 8: March
Perhaps the latest European Weeklies for late Feb through late March are onto the correct idea…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/09/mjo-and-other-drivers-aligning-for-cold-close-to-meteorological-winter-open-to-spring/
Feb 09
Updated 02.09.23 @ 5:45a
After a wet night, a line of storms will rumble through central Indiana over the next couple hours. These will likely precede some brief clearing as we move into the late morning hours.
While the storms will remain below severe levels, non thunderstorm wind gusts very well may approach, if not exceed, severe criteria late morning through the afternoon. Gusts approaching 60 MPH are a good bet in spots through the region. Unfortunately some power outages and tree damage is expected across the area through the evening.
After a mild start to the day, temperatures will fall around lunchtime through the 40s and into the 30s by the evening rush.
Much more later today in our updated video discussion, including a look at the longer range pattern to close February and into March, along with a first idea of the summer pattern!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/09/storms-rumble-in-this-morning-damaging-wind-threat-increases-late-morning-through-the-afternoon/
Feb 08
Updated 02.08.23 @ 7:20a
Our next storm system will take aim on the region tonight and Thursday. As low pressure tracks into the western Great Lakes, it’ll help pull 2 slugs of moisture north into the state.
A period of rain can be expected this evening (well after the evening rush).
Followed by another period of rain and embedded thunder Thursday morning. Heaviest rain totals (1”+ amounts) will favor western and northern Indiana with this system.
The bigger headline will actually be the strong winds Thursday morning. Sustained wind of 30 MPH with gusts to 50+ MPH will create the potential of downed trees, limbs, and increase the potential of power outages by mid and late morning.
Looking ahead to the “follower” system we’ve been discussing over the past week, modeling now has zeroed in on this being a southern and Mid Atlantic event Friday night through Super Bowl Sunday. While the ole saying goes “never trust a closed upper low,” it’s becoming increasingly likely a heavy, wet snow storm looms for the southern Appalachians and into the southern portion of the Mid Atlantic this weekend.
Meanwhile, an unseasonably mild pattern continues here next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/08/rain-returns-tonight-batten-down-the-hatches-thursday-morning/
Feb 07
Updated 02.07.23 @ 5:37a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/07/video-milder-air-arrives-late-week-model-trends/
Feb 06
Updated 02.06.23 @ 9:38p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/06/video-continuing-to-keep-an-eye-on-late-week-longer-range-rambles/
Feb 06
Updated 02.06.23 @ 5:35a
While the work week will open on a quiet note, busy times await this week as we track 3 storm systems. The first of which will push light showers across the state late tonight and Tuesday morning. “Light” is the key word to focus on with this initial system.
A more robust and organized Storm will rumble out of the southern Plains and into the upper Mid West midweek. As such, a much more organized shield of heavier rain and embedded thunder will make a mess of things here Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Widespread 1”+ can be expected area-wide with system number 2.
Finally, a 3rd piece of energy will follow on the heels of our midweek storm. While the cold air supply is marginal at best, there still looks to just be enough for more of a wintry theme with this late week system. Stay tuned. We’ll have a more detailed video discussion online this evening. Make it a great Monday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/06/little-something-for-everyone-this-week/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.23 @ 10:57a
We still need to watch the leader-follower setup mid and late week. While an overall warmer than normal pattern will carry the day through mid month, there can still be periodic opportunities for wintry “mischief” despite the mild time of things as a whole. Perhaps more interesting though is what is happening behind the scenes now to potentially drive a more dramatic pattern reversal later this month.
We note the MJO is forecast to roll into Phase 8 just before the 20th.
This is not only a much colder phase, but also an active (stormy) phase, as well.
Note the high latitude blocking in place on the analog composite above. Also of note, forecast model trends are taking the EPO negative slowly but surely once past mid-February.
Call here is for a colder than normal pattern to return for the last week of the month and through at least the first week of March, but time will tell. In the meantime, we’ll pay close attention to the 12z guidance today on mid and late week and update again either late this evening or early Monday morning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/05/plot-continues-to-thicken-late-month-and-early-march/
Feb 04
Updated 02.04.23 @ 8a
All is quiet now, but that will change next week as an active weather pattern returns. A weak frontal boundary will scoot through the Ohio Valley Tuesday with a few showers before a bigger deal unfolds mid and late week. It’s a classic “leader-follower” type setup.
The lead storm system will lift northwest of the region Wednesday, bringing a slug of moisture northward into the region. Moderate to heavy rain is a good bet at times in an unseasonably mild pattern. Highs will zoom into the 50s to near 60° and we’re even talking about some embedded thunder to boot. A solid 1” to 2” of rain seems like a good call with this system, most of which will fall Wednesday.
As this storm exists, it’ll drag a cold front and more seasonally cool air back into the region for late week. That’s when additional energy will track east out of the Plains and towards the East Coast.
While confidence is high on this setup, exactly where the energy phases with the late week system will determine whether we’re talking about an Ohio Valley winter storm threat or more of an East Coast threat. Stay tuned. At the very least, despite the mild pattern, next week sure won’t be boring…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/04/classic-leader-follower-setup-next-week/
Feb 03
Updated 02.03.23 @ 7a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/03/lr-update-pattern-shake-up-to-close-feb-and-open-march/
Feb 02
Updated 02.02.23 @ 7:32a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/02/video-glancing-shot-of-arctic-air-to-close-the-week-warmer-and-turning-more-active-next-week/