Nov 03
Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p
Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect! While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58
The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours. It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures. Enjoy!
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61
We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60
A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark). While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.
Thursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″); 38/ 55 (falling)
The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.
Friday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48
A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55
Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend. We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday. Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/03/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/
Nov 01
Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions. We’ll enjoy a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/01/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/
Oct 29
Updated 10.29.13 @ 9:37a
Zionsville, IN It’s another calm, cold, quiet start to the day, but changes are brewing. These changes include warmer, more muggy air by tonight and Wednesday, widespread rain and storms for mid week, and another temperature plunge for the weekend.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy; scattered nighttime showers; 0.10″; 37/ 62
After a calm, cold start to the day, clouds will increase and showers will develop tonight. We currently note widespread rain and embedded thunder across MO, but this will weaken as it encounters our dry air mass tonight. Light rain will likely overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we move through the nighttime hours.
Wednesday: Scattered showers; 0.10″; 55/ 67
The big story on Wednesday won’t be the rain, but instead the briefly warmer surge of air out ahead of our cold front. In fact, most of Wednesday should remain rain-free. Latest high resolution short term model data points to showers and a rumble of thunder exiting stage right Wednesday morning and while we can’t rule out an additional shower or thundershower through the day, most of the time will be rain-free Wednesday. South winds will begin to increase during the afternoon, gusting over 20 MPH.
Halloween: Showers and thunderstorms; 1.10″; 59/ 66
A strong cold front will plow into the state Thursday night. Out ahead of this boundary, abundant moisture will surge north into the area. We’re not looking at all day rains Thursday, but target the afternoon-nighttime hours when rain and thunderstorms will be the most widespread. Additionally, we continue to monitor the severe threat with this system. Widespread and significant severe thunderstorms will be likely across southern IN and points south to include the western TN Valley. That said, severe weather reports will likely extend north to include central Indiana, as well. As of now, the primary severe threat appears to be from a damaging straight line wind perspective across our neck of the woods. Heavy rainfall will also be common as widespread 1″+ rains are likely. Needless to say, you’ll certainly want to keep those weather radios tuned in Thursday.
Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 45/ 59
The cold front will be to our east Friday, allowing the sunshine to return. It’ll be a breezy day, but the true cold air advection will hold off until Saturday, so temperatures will be very near seasonal levels Friday with a gusty northwest breeze.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy; PM scattered showers (wet snow flake mixed in); 0.05″; 37/ 47
Fresh cold air will pour into the state Saturday and be accompanied by some upper level energy to create the threat of afternoon scattered showers. Precipitation may mix with a wet snow flake Saturday evening. We think the day shapes up as a cold, raw day that will certainly require that jackets and sweaters.
Sunday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55
We’ll wrap up the weekend with sunshine returning. Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to where we should be for this time of year, after a cold and frosty start.
Monday: Partly cloudy; 37/ 63
As high pressure moves to our east, it’ll allow a warmer return flow out of the southwest to help take over the region for the start of another work week. We’ll monitor a storm system to our west, but forecast dry skies for now next Monday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/29/tuesday-forecast-changes-brewing/
Oct 28
Updated 10.28.13 @ 9:01a
Zionsville, IN We’re opening the work week with cold and frosty conditions, but changes are brewing that will provide significant rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms by Halloween. The details are below!
Monday: Mostly sunny; 29/ 59
We remain under the influence of high pressure today and this will supply the region with plenty of vitamin D before “cloudier, stormier” times await later this week. After a frosty start to the day, temperatures will moderate very near the 60 degree mark!
Tuesday: Increasing clouds; Nighttime showers; 0.25″; 37/ 58
A warm front will lift through central Indiana Tuesday afternoon. As the warmer, more moist air runs over the top of the chilly, drier air at the surface clouds will develop and we think scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder begin to roll into the state Tuesday evening/ night.
Wednesday: Scattered showers; 0.25″; 52/ 67
We’ll remain in an unsettled weather pattern for the middle of the week. While most of Wednesday looks dry as of now, we can’t rule out a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Wednesday will be a warmer and windy day as south winds blow ahead of our approaching cold front. In fact, temperatures will approach the 70 degree mark for many Wednesday.
Halloween: Showers and thunderstorms; 1.25″; 55/ 65
Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread on your Halloween, particularly Thursday evening and night. Some stronger storms are possible with a severe report or two not out of the question. As of now, our thinking is the more widespread severe threat will remain to our south, and include portions of southwestern Kentucky and western Tennessee. Just make a mental note if your travel plans take you south Thursday.
Friday: Scattered showers; 0.20″; 43/ 59 (falling)
The cold front will push east of the state Friday morning and a cooler air mass will move in for the weekend. We’ll include the mention of left over light showers/ drizzle Friday, but the bigger story will be gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy; Scattered shower (wet snow flake?); 0.05; 36/ 47
A much colder, northwesterly flow will be in control Saturday. This will keep the region much cooler than normal. Some upper level energy will rotate southeast over the region and may be strong enough to generate some scattered showers (potentially mixed with a wet snow flake).
Sunday: Mostly sunny; 31/ 55
We’ll wrap up the weekend with sunshine returning and cool, crisp fall conditions in place!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/28/monday-forecast-halloween-storm-in-the-works/
Oct 21
Right on cue, the well advertised cold pattern is settling in and looks to remain entrenched over the region to close October and open November. Note the eastern trough and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/21/cold-close-to-october-watching-halloween-closely/
Oct 17
1.) Model data continues to point towards some impressively cold air for so early in the season as we move through October’s 2nd half. 2.) Latest raw ECMWF numbers suggest highs next week remain in the 40s for (4) consecutive days- beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday. This is extremely impressive for so early in the season. 3.) Northern hemisphere snow and ice cover is running well ahead of this time last year. There have been studies that suggest this helps promote blocking in the winter months ahead. (Latest image is posted below). Time will tell…. 4.) We’re not looking at particularly heavy precipitation amounts over the next week, or so, but there will be a few systems that will produce rain and/ or snow showers (yes, snow) between now and this time next week. Model precipitation amounts range from one tenth to one half inch over the next 7-10 days. 5.) There are some hints we may be looking at another surge of even colder air just in time (or around) Halloween. You may want to invest in a warm costume this year! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/17/afternoon-thoughts/
Oct 15
Updated 10.15.13 @ 4:42p
Zionsville, IN Rain showers will continue pushing east of the region tonight and we should be rain-free Wednesday. We discuss what’s sure to be a busy, chilly forecast below!
Wednesday: Partly cloudy; 50/ 61
Tuesday’s rain will be all, but a memory Wednesday with sunshine returning to your forecast. A north breeze will be in play, helping usher in cooler temperatures.
Thursday: Scattered showers; 0.10; 44/ 58
Some weak upper level energy will move across the state on Thursday and this could help spark a scattered shower. We’re not looking at all day rains or significant rainfall by any means. Besides the rain, the other big weather story Thursday will be the chilly air. We’ll be far below the middle 60s, which is considered the normal high for this time of year.
Friday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 63
We’ll wrap up the work week with very pleasant autumn weather. A secondary cold front and resurgent chilly air will be set to invade for the weekend, but we think the frontal passage holds off until Friday night. As of now, we forecast the front to come through dry.
Saturday: Partly cloudy; 40/ 54
Cool Canadian air will flow into the Hoosier state Saturday amidst chilly northerly breezes. Winds may gust upwards of 20 MPH or so during the daytime Saturday. You’ll certainly need that jacket or sweater as you head out to the fall festivals or the pumpkin patch!
Sunday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 57
Weather conditions will be very similar to that of Saturday on Sunday. Dry skies and chilly breezes will dominate our landscape. Temperatures will remain below average.
Monday: PM shower chance; 0.10; 39/ 64
Our winds will back around briefly to the southwest and allow just enough moisture northward to potentially lead to a broken band of showers to move through the region Monday evening/ early Tuesday ahead of our next cold front. Most of your daytime Monday will remain dry and rain-free. This front is packing a punch in the temperature department and will likely produce the coldest air so far this fall season by the middle of next week, including the chance of the first official freeze for IND.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy; 41/ 49
As of now, next Tuesday is shaping up to be a rather cloudy, raw day. Strong cold air advection will be ongoing. Gusty north winds will help usher in the coldest air so far this fall season. In fact, highs likely will remain below 50 degrees next Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and chilly north winds.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/wednesday-forecast-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year/
Oct 15
So far, October 2013 is running well above normal in the temperature department: As shown above, the lower lakes and Ohio valley region has been the target for the biggest…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/change-on-the-horizon/
Oct 13
Updated 10.13.13 @ 5:33p
Zionsville, IN After enjoying a pleasant Sunday, we’re getting set for a busy time in the good ole forecast office this week. This is just the beginning of a more active, colder, pattern that should carry us through the end of October…
Monday: Partly cloudy; 43/ 67
The new work week will dawn with pleasant skies and chilly conditions. Some outlying areas could even dip into the 30s tonight/ early Monday. We target the lower 40s officially for IND under fair skies. Dry conditions are on tap Monday with very pleasant temperatures.
Tuesday: Late Showers; 0.10; 52/ 72
Most of your Tuesday will remain rain-free, but we target our next cold front for a Tuesday night/ Wednesday arrival. As a result, we think a broken band of showers moves through the state Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. We’re not expecting heavy rain with this event and the bigger deal will be the drop in temperatures for mid and late week.
Wednesday: AM showers; 0.25; 48/ 61 (falling)
As mentioned above, our cold front will push east of the region Wednesday morning and usher in a wind shift to the northwest that’ll result in falling temperatures through the day. We think area thermometers are in the 50s by Wednesday afternoon along with a gusty northwest wind.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy; 43/ 54
Cool will be the word Thursday with highs not making it out of the middle 50s. As of now we think we remain dry Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies in place. We’ll monitor for the chance of an instability-driven light shower chance, but these will likely be few and far between.
Friday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 60; Saturday: Mostly cloudy; 39/ 52
Partly cloudy and cool conditions will be with us as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. A cold front will blow through the state Friday evening, but it looks like moisture will be limited with this frontal passage. Again, similar, to that of the early week front, the bigger deal will be the drop in temperatures.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing; 0.25; 43/ 54
Modeling is not in agreement with each other in regards to our next potential weather maker. As a result, we’ll have to fine tune our Sunday forecast as we move forward. If the next storm system is slower, then temperatures will be much cooler for overnight lows Saturday night and Sunday morning (into the 30s). As of now, we think clouds increase enough to prevent lows from falling much further than the lower 40s. Otherwise, Sunday looks like a day where clouds lower and thicken through the day with rain not far behind.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/13/monday-forecast-heading-into-a-colder-pattern/
Oct 13
This post is coming to you from the beautiful sandy shores of the Florida panhandle. As a result, posts will be a bit erratic over the next week, or so,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/13/sunday-thoughts-from-the-gulf/