Dec 31
Updated 12.31.23 @ 4:13p
We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.
It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?
While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.
Details to follow in the week ahead!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/potential-is-mighty-but-can-it-turn-to-reality/
Dec 31
Updated 12.31.23 @ 8:40a
The MJO is rolling right into the notorious cold (for this time of year) phase 3 as we open up the new year.
The composite analog for phase 3 in January from an upper air and surface temperature anomaly standpoint:
Ensemble guidance shows the widespread colder than normal temperatures overspreading the country. Like clockwork, this is almost identical to the Phase 3 analog above.
After a quiet week, we’ll watch 2 storms in the 5-10 day period. The first comes along next weekend. While still far too early to get detailed, this one does have potential to serve up some wintry mischief to the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
The second storm follows and it’s behind this feature that more of a truly arctic air mass will get involved in our pattern.
The pattern will stay busy as the arctic air presses in. At the same time, note the Greenland block beginning to form. Winter weather enthusiasts have to be chomping at the bit by that 10-15 day look. Needless to say, we can expect a rapidly expanding snow pack across the Lower 48 over the next couple weeks.
Thereafter, all eyes will remain on the MJO. Do we roll into the “null phase,” such as what the European suggests or swing through the traditionally mild/ warm phases such as the American guidance portrays? Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/thoughts-on-the-first-couple-weeks-of-the-year-and-beyond/
Dec 30
Updated 12.30.23 @ 7:54a
Despite our New Year’s Eve clipper, we’re heading for an unusually quiet weather pattern to open up the new year. The upcoming 10 days are forecast to run well below average from a precipitation standpoint.
In fact, after tomorrow’s light snow, it may not be until late next weekend or closer towards January 10th that we’re talking about our next precipitation chances. Rare, indeed, for this time of year.
Back to this morning’s headline and our clipper. Sunday should dawn dry but light snow will begin to become more widespread across central Indiana by mid to late morning.
Light snow will continue to fall through the early afternoon before we get into a brief lull in the activity. During this time frame we can also expect 10-20 MPH winds which may limit visibility slightly as the light snow falls. Daytime accumulation, if any, should be no more than a dusting.
After the lull in the activity, a second round of light snow will develop towards 10p to 11p, or so.
Though still light in nature, temperatures will settle below the freezing mark as this secondary batch of light snow falls.
While certainly not a heavy event by any means, just enough light snow and temperatures falling below freezing will likely create some localized slick spots across central Indiana tomorrow evening.
(Snow removal Clients, salting is recommended tomorrow evening).
Those with NYE plans out and about should allow extra time traveling home tomorrow evening. Light snow will diminish during the overnight and drier conditions should return for New Year’s Day, itself.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/30/clipper-delivers-light-snow-for-nye/
Dec 29
Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:20a
First, if you didn’t have a chance to see our thoughts after the European Weeklies came in, you can check that out here.
After the snow across portions of western and southern Indiana the past couple days (thank you for all of the reports, by the way), the next feature we’re tracking has to do with a clipper system that will dive southeast across the upper Mid West and into the Ohio Valley New Year’s Eve. This will certainly be moisture-starved, but should have just enough to work with to generate snow flurries and scattered snow showers by late Sunday morning, continuing in off an on fashion into the afternoon and evening.
That’s really all there is to track, locally, over the upcoming 7-day period. The predominant storm track will shift off to the south during this time frame as an active, El Niño induced, southern jet takes hold. The one potential feature of interest is out towards the end of next week. We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, it looks like the phasing of energy will take place just a little too far east for anything of “excitement” here.
Temperatures will continue to cool closer to seasonal averages and perhaps a bit below normal over the upcoming 10-14 days. Greatest cool anomalies will be located across the western and southern tier during this timeframe.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/29/clipper-arrives-new-years-eve-pattern-to-open-24/
Dec 28
Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:09a
Updated with European Weekly thoughts 12/29/23 @ 7:09a
There’s no reason to change any of our thoughts concerning how things play out over the next 24 hours with our upper level low pressure system. That idea from yesterday is available here. In short, it still appears as if parts of west-central Indiana are still greatest at risk of seeing light wet snow accumulation (of course some of our friends in southwest Indiana are already enjoying waking up to snow on the ground this morning).
As we look ahead to the upcoming 3-4 weeks (will add to this post later tonight after having a chance to see the updated Euro Weekly teleconnections), it appears as if we’re heading right towards more of a predominant El Niño regime with an active southern storm track and most persistent cold, relative to average, taking up residence across the southern tier. The updated JMA Weekly model portrays this best over the course of the upcoming 28 days:
Modeling continues to struggle with the MJO evolution over the upcoming 2 week period. While this doesn’t impact the idea of colder times in the short-term period, it does have great implications beyond mid-January. The kind of amplitude shown off the American guidance (image 1 below) would threaten to deliver a much warmer than average period, locally, beyond mid-month. Meanwhile, the European (image 2 below) continues to suggest a collapse into the neutral phase.
The 2 primary other pattern drivers include the PNA and EPO through mid-January. Beyond this point, we’ll start to incorporate the likes of the NAO and AO into our forecast (hence another reason why we’re interested in seeing how the Euro Weeklies show this later today).
Simply based on how the PNA/ EPO combo is forecast, the first week would open with cooler temperatures transitioning into the region and then we would likely see moderation in the week 2 to early week 3 timeframe.
Week 1
Week 2
While we’re certainly transitioning to a cooler and more active pattern over the upcoming couple weeks, compared to where we’ve been to this point in meteorological winter, it’s not yet to a point where anything looks excessively cold or, for that matter, snowy.
That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a couple storms to track that could offer up some meaningful winter weather potential here, but I just don’t see a sustained cold, snowy pattern taking foot through mid-January. Beyond that point, we’ll have to monitor which more extreme solution plays out. Based on everything going on by that point, it’s still likely to be a situation where either more persistent (and significant) cold or warmth develops.
European Weekly update 12/29/23
The new European Weeklies show a warmer option for the 2nd half of January, but contradict their own teleconnections during this time frame. The model goes to a strong negative AO, positive PNA, negative NAO, and a neutral EPO. Of course we’ll have to see what the MJO ultimately ends up doing but that combo strongly argues for the colder option for the 2nd half of January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/28/snowy-at-times-for-some-updated-long-range-thoughts/
Dec 27
Updated 12.27.23 @ 6:55a
A big ole slow moving cut off upper level low pressure system will pinwheel out of the upper Midwest this morning into the TN Valley and Southeast by the weekend.
These features are always known for “surprises” and it’s up to forecasters, including yours truly, to eliminate those surprises over the next couple days. The challenging part with this particular setup is that colder air will be arriving into the region as the more organized bands of precipitation are pivoting south. Precipitation intensity will also be a big player in this event. The heavier, or more intense, precipitation rates will be able to cool the column of air perhaps a bit quicker than most short term model guidance may currently see.
So what does this all mean to me? Today is quiet. After patchy fog burns off, we’re looking at more in the way of sunshine building in. The initial band of precipitation will likely setup tonight across southwestern Indiana. While this will start out as a cold rain, precipitation should switch over to snow prior to sunrise and some localized wet accumulation of snow is likely across Southwest Indiana by daybreak Thursday.
Meanwhile, back up this way, after a dry start to the day, precipitation is expected to become more widespread by early to mid afternoon. As nightfall sets in, rain will likely turn to wet snow showers. Admittedly tricky trying to determine where the steadiest band of precipitation will prevail, the best idea at this point will be across west-central Indiana, including places like Frankfort, Lafayette, Crawfordsville, and Terre Haute. Here, light wet snow accumulation of 1” to 2” seems like a good bet by Friday morning.
Precipitation will diminish from north to south across western Indiana Friday morning. Dry conditions will return until a reinforcing jab of cold air arrives New Year’s Day with scattered snow showers.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/27/cut-off-upper-low-weathermans-woe/
Dec 26
Updated 12.26.23 @ 6:16a We begin to turn cooler through the day and this sets the tone for a more seasonable close to the year. We’ll continue to watch the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/26/video-turning-cooler-couple-chances-of-light-precipitation/
Dec 25
Updated 12.25.23 @ 6:58a
From our family to yours, we wish you warmest Christmas blessings and a joyous holiday season!
After a dry start to the day, rain will lift north and overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon. A few moderate showers are likely at times. Rainfall coverage and intensity will diminish significantly as we move through mid and late evening. Though there will be a few exceptions, generally 0.50” to 0.75” will fall south of the I-70 corridor with amounts of 0.25” to 0.50” north of I-70.
Strong southeasterly winds and unseasonably mild temperatures can also be expected today. Gusts will approach 40 MPH this afternoon across all of the region.
Our weather will dry out Tuesday and Wednesday but by this time all eyes will be poised to our west as we wait in the cold core upper level low to pivot across the region. While there won’t be a lot of cold air readily available for this system to tap into, we’ll have to see if it can manufacture its own cold air to create some potential localized winter weather “issues” for portions of the southern Ohio Valley and especially the Appalachians prior to the New Year’s weekend. For now, we’ll forecast a mix of rain and snow here Thursday- just know that we’ll likely have to firm that up once the details become clearer regarding the exact track of the upper low. As the ole saying goes, “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe.” Solutions range from a cold rain to a localized accumulating wet snow event…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/25/wishing-you-a-very-merry-christmas-and-a-blessed-holiday-season/
Dec 24
Updated 12.24.23 @ 6:50a Areas of fog and drizzle will dissipate as we progress through the day and we even expect some breaks in the clouds at times. An unseasonably…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/24/video-fog-lifts-and-gives-way-to-unseasonably-mild-conditions-christmas-rain-and-colder-transition-later-in-the-week/
Dec 23
Updated 12.23.23 @ 3:04p
The stage has been set for some time concerning late December and the first week to 10 days of January. There are no changes on our ideas concerning that timeframe. In short, a colder (certainly from where we’ve been as of late, and slightly below the average), and stormy evolution sums up that period.
The timeframe now in question has to do with mid and late January, after what sure looks to be a 5-7 day period of moderation. Unlike what we’ve outlined for late December and early January, the second half of January is likely to feature more in the way of a case of “extreme and nothing in between” type pattern. As outlined in Thursday’s long range post, up to this point, modeling has a couple of different takes on the aforementioned period. The American guidance suggests a repeat of well above normal temperatures and a general lack of winter weather looms with an MJO look poised for the classic warm phases.
You likely don’t need us to remind you of January and February last year. Indianapolis ran a whopping 8.1° above normal through the first couple months of the year.
The reason? An amplified MJO rolling slowly through the Phases 3, 4, and 5 before getting into the colder phases late February and into March.
Back to present day, the American guidance, though slowly backing off from the aggressive idea from a couple days ago, suggests this is once again on the table. Should that come to fruition, mid January would feature well above normal temperatures yet again.
As the great Lee Corso famously coined, “not so fast, my friend.” The European guidance collapses the MJO into the null, or neural phase, before getting into the warm phases. While a period of moderation still will likely follow the chilly open to January, should the Euro idea be correct (and we suspect it is- more on that below), an eventual recycling through the cold phases would likely ensue late January into early February.
By this point, guidance is also beginning to align on other important pattern drivers. Remember, by mid January, we really start to lean in on what the NAO and AO are doing. That’s certainly not to say we don’t pay attention to the PNA and EPO- just that the AO/ NAO can have greater influence on the regime into early spring. Of course, the MJO remains king.
What’s interesting is that each respective “driver” positions itself in a manner that argues cold should rule during the late January and early February period.
Should that MJO circle back into the traditional cold phases, look out. The window will open for a period of true arctic air getting involved with the pattern given the other pattern drivers above. – Target period would be late January (after Jan. 15th) and into early February.
Given what’s out there for the taking, it’s certainly not a pattern for the faint of heart. Buckle up!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/23/a-tale-of-2-potential-extremes-for-late-january-and-an-early-lean/