Jan 19
Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/long-range-update-pattern-evolution-through-the-remainder-of-winter-open-to-meteorological-spring/
Jan 18
Updated 01.18.24 @ 7:22a We continue to eye an accumulating snow event to close out the work week and this will precede arctic reinforcements that once again will take us…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/18/video-snowy-windy-and-turning-colder-yet-again-big-warmup-on-deck-next-week-but-comes-with-unsettled-weather/
Jan 17
Updated 01.17.24 @ 5:22p
While we’ll still contend with a couple of rounds of accumulating snow to close out the work week, latest model guidance is trending drier with both systems- at least across most of central Indiana. The Thursday morning snow band will lead to a couple inches of powder across north-central and northern IN tomorrow morning, but the majority of this band should fall apart before reaching Indianapolis. We’ll continue to keep close eyes on overnight trends, but travel impacts aren’t likely until once north of Kokomo as of now tomorrow morning.
The next round of snow will arrive Thursday night- now likely well after the evening rush hour. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event (2″-3″ north of Indianapolis, including northern ‘burbs and 1″ to 2″ from Indy and points south), the cold surface will allow this light snow event to create slick road conditions overnight and into our Friday. Snow removal clients, we still recommend planning to activate salting and plowing overnight and through Friday.
We also continue to closely monitor a localized, but heavier snow band that will likely oscillate through a portion of central Indiana through the afternoon Friday. Localized heavier snow accumulations and gusty winds will be associated within this snow band and we’ll have to treat this more as a “nowcast” situation once that LES band gets organized.
Even outside of this LES band, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially on west-east roadways and in the open country. Drifting and blowing snow will continue through Saturday in these areas.
After another bitterly cold weekend, a significant warming trend will get underway next week. That’s not before we likely have to deal with a round of freezing rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Many times, forecast guidance can be too aggressive in dislodging true arctic air and I’m afraid that will be the case in this instance. Today’s trends have likely started to pick up on this icy threat to open the work week and while we likely aren’t talking about a true ice storm, travel impacts should be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning before we transition to a plain ole rain event.
Thereafter it’s “game, set, match” for much milder, but wet times through the rest of the week and on into next weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/17/evening-update-snow-wind-trends-icy-setup-early-next-week-and-more-on-the-pattern-flip-ahead/
Jan 17
Updated 01.17.24 @ 6:58a A band of snow will drop south into north-central IN Thursday morning, likely making it as far south as the Indianapolis-area proper before falling apart. This…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/17/video-snowy-close-to-the-week-finally-arctic-hammer-drops-this-weekend-before-significant-pattern-change/
Jan 16
Updated 01.16.24 @ 12:34p
Today and most, if not all, of Wednesday will be plain ole cold but at least precipitation free. We’ll have to watch short term guidance closely for a band of snow that will develop across northern Indiana overnight and into Thursday morning. We think this snow band will sink south into at least north-central Indiana after sunrise Thursday before falling apart likely around Indianapolis. A quick 1”-2” of snow is likely across northern and north-central Indiana Thursday morning.
Our next opportunity of snow (area wide) will move in Thursday night and Friday morning. This will be a much higher ratio type snow (think 20:1) than typical with the cold, arctic airmass in place. We should easily be able to accumulate 2”-4” with this event, with the potential of a couple 4”+ reports. (Snow removal clients, plowing and salting will be activated by Thursday evening).
A fresh round of bitter, arctic air flows in as we kick off the weekend. With a fresh snowpack, another round of subzero lows should be expected. Look for highs in the 10s Saturday and 20s Sunday. Wind chill values will dip to around -20° as we kick off the weekend.
Though a moderating trend will kick in in full force next week, we’ll have to watch for the potential of a freezing rain and/ or sleet event Monday night into Tuesday (arctic air is always slower to erode than usually modeled) and a true shift to a wet pattern for the middle and latter part of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/16/snow-event-and-arctic-reinforcements-to-close-the-week-active-storm-track-ahead/
Jan 15
Updated 01.15.24 @ 6:29a
Officially, IND dipped to 4° below zero Sunday morning with a high of only 12°. We’re even colder this morning across the area, including double digit below zero readings north and 6° to 9° below zero for most central IN neighborhoods.
Another round of light snow will scoot through central IN tonight, accumulating anywhere from 0.50” to just under an inch.
The next chances of snow come late week, in advance of arctic reinforcements for the weekend (we think we go back below zero over the weekend). We’re tracking Wednesday night into Thursday morning and Thursday night into early Friday for the next rounds of snow- both of which should be light events but will add up to a couple if not several inches when all is said and done (2”-4” for most is a reasonable call from this distance).
That fresh snowpack will lay the ground for a renewed batch of arctic air for the weekend, including lows back to below zero and highs in the 10s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/15/bitter-week-ahead-talking-snow-chances-and-arctic-reinforcements-for-the-weekend/
Jan 14
Updated 01.14.24 @ 7:13a
Hoosiers are waking up to subzero temperatures this morning. We note double digit below zero readings now penetrating into northwest parts of the state. Wind chill values are dangerously cold.
Highs today will barely sneak into the single digits as the true arctic air mass continues to have a tight grip on the region.
Some light snow may scoot through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning. This won’t amount to much even if it does materialize. (Dusting to half inch of snow if that).
The next opportunity for potentially more meaningful snow arrives late week – in the Thursday PM through Friday timeframe, preceding another intrusion of bitter arctic air to open next weekend.
For folks longing for milder times, hang in there. A pattern change still seems afoot come late month. This January thaw may even take highs back into the 40s and 50s ahead of a reloading of cold times as we flip the page to February.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/14/sunday-morning-rambles-from-the-deep-freeze/
Jan 13
Updated 01.13.24 @ 6:57a
We’re waking up to light snow this morning in the wake of our departing strong storm. As a new (albeit much, much weaker) disturbance moves across the Ohio Valley tonight, snow will increase in coverage and intensity this evening, continuing into early Sunday morning. At times, snow may fall at moderate intensity. This is all a byproduct of maximizing every bit of available moisture as the true bitter arctic air rolls into town. We’ll also need to be prepared for blowing and drifting issues.
A fresh 0.5” to 1.5” (may see a couple local reports of 2”) of snow can be expected with this system.
By tomorrow morning, dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 25° below zero can be expected.
“Cold” is the word in the week ahead but we’ll also monitor a couple of quick moving opportunities of additional snow. While it still doesn’t appear that anything overly heavy is on the table, it won’t take much for these systems to overachieve in the bitter arctic air (“fluff factor” will be present in the upcoming week). With the cold, even light snow events will make a mess of area roadways, so be sure to allow extra time to safely reach your destination.
It continues to appear that the system Monday into Tuesday will take a more suppressed route. We don’t expect much, if anything, here across central Indiana from a snow standpoint. Our eyes continue to focus in on Thursday/ Friday. The jet may buckle just enough to allow energy to slow down and organize a bit more to generate a more widespread snow event across our neck of the woods, but even this is admittedly tricky from this distance- just something we’ll continue to closely monitor in the week ahead.
One thing is for sure, whatever snow does fall in this pattern won’t be going anywhere as frigid as we’re going to be. Stay safe (and warm), friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/13/bitter-cold-settles-in-looking-at-snow-chances-in-the-week-ahead/
Jan 12
Updated 01.12.24 @ 12:18p
The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.
But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.
After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.
The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!
We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/12/prolonged-period-of-bitterness-but-a-change-is-on-the-horizon/
Jan 12
Updated 01.12.24 @ 6:22a A potent storm system will deal out a multitude of weather conditions over the next 12 to 18 hours, including strong winds, heavy rain, and light…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/12/video-conditions-go-down-hill-through-the-day-bitterly-cold-pattern-on-tap/