Feb 03
Updated 02.03.24 @ 10:12a The calm weather pattern that we’ll enjoy this weekend is giving us time to look ahead to a significant pattern transition to La Nina and the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/03/video-all-is-quiet-for-now-initial-spring-and-summer-ideas-as-we-head-to-la-nina/
Feb 02
Updated 02.02.24 @ 7:37a
We don’t see any reason to deviate from the longstanding ideas on the overall pattern evolution ahead. February will continue to provide an unseasonably mild and quiet stretch through the first 1/3 of the month ahead of a pattern transition back to colder around or just after 2/10.
2/2 – 2/8
2/9 – 2/16
Note the ridge begins to break down across the East during the Week 2 period above. This is the transition to colder times, locally, as heights begin to build across western Canada and the northeastern Pacific. By mid-month, we’re talking about an entirely different pattern as a trough continues to deepen across the East along with unseasonably cold air become more entrenched.
In the shorter term period, not only are we talking about unseasonably warm temperatures (it’ll push 60°+ here late next week) but also incredibly quiet weather. In fact, we aren’t looking at another opportunity for measurable precipitation until next Thursday.
A warm front and trailing cold front will return a round of unsettled weather (rain and even thunderstorm potential) here as we get set to close the work week next week. More on expected rain coverage and amounts as we get into the weekend and next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/02/friday-morning-notes-on-the-pattern-ahead/
Feb 01
Updated 02.01.24 @ 7:45a Aside from a dry back door cold front overnight, all is quiet in the weather world, locally, but changes are on the horizon around the 10th…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/01/welcome-to-february/
Jan 31
Updated 01.31.24 @7:06a
In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.
Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.
To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.
Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/31/unseasonably-dry-and-calm-open-to-february-winters-return/
Jan 30
Updated 01.30.24 @ 7:16a A weak clipper will deliver mixed showers this morning and a round of light snow showers this evening. Totals with both rounds of precipitation will be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/30/video-weak-clipper-today-unusually-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/
Jan 29
Updated 01.29.24 @ 5:42p
Let’s get to the headline right out of the gate: Winter is far, far from over. While we don’t have any significant changes to our ongoing long range pattern ideas, I did want to touch on the overall regime for February into March during this evening’s discussion.
Subsequently, we’re also continuing to lean into the milder than normal pattern that will be with us as we close January and navigate the first 1/3 of February. Today’s medium range model data backs this up well.
Day 1-5
Days 5-10
Days 10-15
Overall, the next couple of weeks should also result in a drier than normal pattern, locally.
It should come as no surprise given the teleconnection suite (all in warm phases, with the exception of the PNA which will result in cooler anomalies at times across the Southeast region). We note these same teleconnections shifting towards the colder phases around, or just before the 10th of February. The Madden-Julian Oscillation also is in the notorious warm phases.
Before 2/10, any cold will be fleeting and nothing significant given the time of year. Overall, an unseasonably mild pattern will dominate.
Post 2/10, we’re going to see a shift towards colder times. A lot of this has to do with the alignment amongst the teleconnections. Throw in the MJO heading into the frigid (for this time of year) Phase 8 and you have the potential to eventually see the pattern deliver the magnitude of cold we just saw come late February. (In case you missed it, we already set the bar on the type of cold we envision developing late February).
Given the NAO heading into the tank by this point, there’s fear this particular round of cold would likely have more staying power than it’s January predecessor. “Phase 8 MJO WITH a strongly negative NAO?” Look out below…
Interestingly, the NEW European Weeklies are going right to this set-up and perhaps the most bullish I’ve seen over a 30-day period from this distance. Winter is far, far from over, indeed.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/29/steady-as-she-goes-no-need-to-change-ongoing-ideas-of-milder-than-normal-open-to-february-followed-by-cold-wintry-pattern-thereafter/
Jan 29
Updated 01.29.24 @ 5:59a We’ll close January and open February with an extended stretch of unseasonably quiet (and mild) conditions. The only exception? A weak clipper that will offer up…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/29/video-tuesday-clipper-followed-by-an-extended-stretch-of-quiet-conditions/
Jan 28
Updated 01.28.24 @ 7:07a
The narrow but more organized band of locally moderate-heavy precipitation failed to materialize overnight. The result is a busted snowfall forecast. Sure some are dealing with wet snow this morning, but the type of precipitation rates weren’t achieved to cool the entire column of air enough to allow the accumulating snow axis of 1”-2” to materialize.
Regardless of what type of precipitation you’re seeing this morning, this will all pull out of the state around lunchtime. Western portions of Indiana will dry out much sooner.
We’ll be left with blustery conditions today, including north, northwest winds that will reach speeds north of 30 MPH at times.
With all of this said, the great news is that the balance of the upcoming week (into next weekend) will be significantly quieter around these parts when compared to this past week. We’ll watch a clipper system that will likely deliver a cold rain and/ or a wintry mix Tuesday morning into the afternoon but this shouldn’t be a big deal across central Indiana.
That’s all she wrote on the precipitation front heading into next weekend. Heights will build over Hudson Bay (Hudson Bay block) this week and force a more active pattern to our south late week. While we’ll have to continue monitoring the potential of interesting times to our south (lower Ohio Valley, TN Valley and Deep South) going into Friday and the weekend, this upper air pattern should keep our immediate weather much quieter, aside from a “back door” cold front that will pass through here dry. We will certainly notice a much colder time of things developing during this period, along with gusty winds at times.
Looking Ahead: The overall pattern should feature a milder than normal regime (as a whole), along with drier than average conditions to close January and open February.
Week 1
Jan 28-Feb 3
Week 2
Feb 4-10
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/28/a-quieter-pattern-to-close-january-open-february/
Jan 27
Updated 01.27.24 @ 1:46p
An area of low pressure continues to organize in northeastern MS this afternoon and will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley before transferring energy off to a secondary (and eventually “primary”) low that will take control Sunday off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.
Rain will lift north into central Indiana through the late afternoon and evening, falling moderately at times tonight. As just enough cold air pours into the backside of the low, rain will transition to a wet snow after midnight. We note high resolution guidance is also becoming more “excited” about the potential of a narrow deformation band of precipitation that may setup shop across portions of central Indiana into northeastern parts of the state Sunday morning. If this does, indeed, take place, a wet “thump” of snow to the tune of 1″ to 2″ can be expected by 9a Sunday. That said, even hours away from this event, “bust potential” is still much higher than normal. Should we not realize the narrow band of heavier precipitation rates, it’ll be difficult if not impossible to get the column to cool enough to generate a band of accumulating snow.
All in all, still a far cry from anything significant, but this could surprise a few folks Sunday morning all the same. Most, if not all of this wet snow will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, but there could also be a few slick spots early Sunday morning during periods of heavier snowfall rates.
Speaking of Sunday, we turn quite blustery with northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30+ MPH and highs in the middle 30s. Dry conditions will return after the early morning snow departs.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/27/stripe-of-accumulating-wet-snow-falls-tonight-blustery-sunday-to-follow/
Jan 27
Updated 01.27.24 @ 8:25a
We’ve noticed a north and western trend with respect to our storm system tonight and early Sunday morning. Before we get there, it’s another gloomy start to the day (becoming the norm, huh?!). Rain will build north into the region this evening and fall at a moderate clip at times. We still anticipate a wet snow band to develop on the northwestern periphery of this rain shield overnight and Sunday morning and the video dives in further around current thinking.
Down the road, a Hudson Bay Block will present additional challenges and the potential of another “interesting” setup late next week. This blocking pattern will help “string out” a stronger storm threat late week and force just enough cold air south where the potential of a winter storm threat will be on the increase across portions of the lower Ohio Valley region and Appalachians. More on this threat as we progress through the week ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/27/video-changeable-weather-tonight-into-sunday-hudson-bay-block-forces-interesting-setup-late-next-week/