Feb 25
Updated 02.25.24 @ 7:55a
Though a bit earlier than usual this year, it’s time to “dust off” our dedicated weekly post aimed solely at looking at the potential of severe weather in the week ahead. You can expect this to be posted each Sunday morning moving forward through the spring and summer before sunsetting for another year come late September.
Forecast period: 02.25.24 through 03.03.24
The “headliner” system in the forecast period is an area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday (02.27 and 02.28). This will drag a trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning into the afternoon (west to east).
The Storm Prediction Center includes most of the region in some sort of risk of severe weather Tuesday. The greatest risk of severe appears to include an area north and west of a rough line from Evansville northeast to Bloomington and Toledo, OH. While all modes of severe weather are in play, we remain most concerned for the threat of damaging straight line winds Tuesday PM.
Ingredients aren’t off the charts (rarely are this time of year), but parameters are sufficient enough to warrant the chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday into very early Wednesday morning before the cold front moves through the region and results in falling temperatures and a much more stable airmass engulfing the entire OHV through the day. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune specific timing of storms.
Beyond this point, an area of high pressure will settle overhead, resulting in a much more stable pattern to close the week and head through the weekend. Expect sunshine to return and another quick warm-up to get underway during this period. Highs will zoom back into the 60s next weekend.
Looking ahead, we’ll need to monitor the threat of another potential strong-severe storm window during the early to middle stages of next week. Far too early for specifics, but similar ingredients appear in play which isn’t shocking given the ‘mean’ upper air pattern shown to open this post. We also want to reiterate the above to well above average precipitation expected throughout meteorological spring. Image 3 above highlights the wet look over the upcoming couple weeks.
Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:
*10-day rainfall projection: 1.25″ – 2.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-45/
Feb 24
Updated 02.24.24 @ 8a Any lingering light snow showers will quickly come to an end this morning and we’ll welcome sunshine back into the picture later today. Sunday will feature…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/24/video-overall-strong-signal-for-unseasonable-warmth-remains-on-charts-into-early-march-watching-storms-early-next-week/
Feb 23
Updated 02.23.24 @ 7:34a
A fast moving clipper system will offer up a round of snow tonight across northern and central IN. Here’s our latest thinking with respect to accumulation numbers. Snow lovers, we recommend getting out to enjoy early Saturday as an increasingly powerful late February sun angle will have many asking “what snow?!” as early as the afternoon.
A quick warm-up is on deck for the 2nd half of the weekend and we’re eyeing the potential of a couple rounds of storms Tuesday. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging straight line winds the biggest concern from this distance with any of the severe activity that potentially develops.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/23/video-tracking-snow-tonight-followed-by-a-quick-warm-up-and-storms-next-week/
Feb 22
Updated 02.22.24 @ 7:20a
“Busy” is one way to describe the upcoming week to 10 days worth of weather as the pattern around these parts, and a large chunk of the East, takes on a spring look and feel. Everything from thunderstorms, rain, clipper snow, and an opportunity for strong to severe storms is included in the week ahead.
An area of low pressure will move through central and southern Indiana this afternoon, continuing to present scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. While north-central Indiana has been the focal zone for early morning activity, we anticipate more of central and southern Indiana will be impacted throughout the afternoon and early evening.
All of this precipitation and embedded thunder will push off to the south of the area around or just after dinnertime. A quiet night is on deck with cooler air flowing back into the state. This will lead to a calm close to the work week as temperatures “warm” back to around 50° Friday afternoon as sunshine returns.
As we open the weekend, a rapidly moving clipper system will drop southeast across the region, eventually leading to several inches of wet snow for the east TN and western NC mountains. Back here on the home front, a period of snow is expected to develop late Friday night and predawn Saturday. While this certainly won’t be anything like what we saw last Friday, a wet coating of snow is possible in spots as this upper air feature dives across the region. By daybreak Saturday, all of the snow will be out of the area and we’ll be talking about working in more in the way of sunshine into the mix as our day progresses. Gusty northerly winds Saturday morning will diminish as the day wears on.
A quick warm-up is on the way for the 2nd half of the weekend. In fact, highs will approach 60° Sunday afternoon (how’s that for weather whip-lash?!). These warmer times will allow a more potent round of storm to rumble across the region as we progress through the early stages of next week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region Monday with showers and then attention turns to the threat of strong to severe thunderstorm potential as we go through our Tuesday and Wednesday. More on the specific timing and severe threats (damaging straight line wind appears to be the biggest concern from this distance) with updates to come in the days ahead.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the region for the opportunity of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/22/just-a-little-busy-in-the-forecast-office/
Feb 21
Updated 02.21.24 @ 7:31a A gorgeous day is on tap with sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures into the middle 60s. Find a way to get out there and enjoy before…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/21/video-stunner-of-a-wednesday-gives-way-to-a-wet-stormy-thursday-spring-like-pattern-early-march/
Feb 20
Updated 02.20.24 @ 6:22p With the exception of a couple cooler (can’t even call it “cold” by late February/ early March standards) days, the pattern over the upcoming couple weeks…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/20/evening-video-mild-pattern-comes-with-heavy-rain-storm-risk-in-the-days-and-weeks-ahead/
Feb 20
Updated 02.20.24 @ 5:30a
Today and Wednesday (at least during the daytime) are about as quiet and pleasant as it can get for late-February. After another cold start, we’ll quickly warm into the 50s later this afternoon. We’ll do even better than that come Wednesday as highs flirt with the 60° mark. Patio, anyone?!
Moisture won’t make a return until overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. We note modeling is honing in on central and southern Indiana for the potential of heaviest rain during the period (most of which falls Thursday morning into the afternoon) and we may also see a couple of thunderstorms thrown into the mix, especially downstate. A solid 0.50″ to 1″ appears most reasonable for area rain gauges.
Behind this feature, a brief drop in temperatures can be expected for the weekend, but we won’t really even be able to call this air mass “cold” by late February standards. Nonetheless, trailing upper level energy and just enough cooler air will be enough to ignite a few snow showers Saturday.
We want to reiterate that this upcoming weekend’s snow potential is nothing compared to last weekend and we’ll be right back into the 50s and 60s by Sunday!
That brings us to early next week. While still a bit too far out to get specific, the potential of a more potent storm system is there and we’ll have to keep close tabs on the threat of a more widespread rain and embedded strong storm threat as we get closer. More on this feature in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/20/on-cruise-control-but-there-are-a-few-bumps-on-the-road/
Feb 19
Updated 02.19.24 @ 8:37a An upper level ridge will expand across the eastern portion of the country as we close February and open March. The result will be an increasingly…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/19/video-spring-like-pattern-to-close-february-and-open-march/
Feb 18
Updated 02.18.24 @ 10:59a
Though we dealt with a bitter start to the day, those strong and gusty southwest winds signal a regime change through the 1st half of the work week. Highs will pop into the 60s even by midweek- a far cry from this morning’s sub-zero “feels like” over the heart of the fresh snowpack.
The upcoming 10-day period will feature an expanding ridge across the East and the ‘mean’ trough position settling into the West.
After another brief shot of cold air this weekend, a significant unseasonably mild pattern will arrive next week. Cold settles into the West.
The developing upper air pattern will lead to a more active storm track to close February and open March. See the anticipated above normal precipitation pattern taking hold. This is likely a sign of what the balance of meteorological spring will feature.
In the week ahead, we continue to track a rain maker Wednesday night into Thursday and a brief “jolt” of cold for the weekend.
Looking ahead to next week, a more widespread and stronger storm should take aim on our area. Though still a ways off, the signal is one that looks like this feature will be able to tap into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for a more widespread, potentially, heavier rain event and also the chance of storms.
Note precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast nearly 300% of the norm.
As we get closer, we’ll have to keep tabs on instability levels and available energy for the prospects of storms. More on this Day 8-10 feature in the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/18/taste-of-spring-to-close-february-and-open-march-monitoring-storm-potential/
Feb 17
Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a
Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).
I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.
Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.
Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.
After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.
Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/17/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/