Mar 04
Updated 03.04.24 @ 8a We couldn’t ask for better weather conditions to kick off the work week. Sunshine and unseasonably warm conditions will have several central Indiana neighborhoods flirting with…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/04/video-flirting-with-record-warmth-today-tracking-2-storms-this-week/
Mar 03
Updated 03.03.24 @ 8:19a
A gorgeous Sunday is on deck with highs rising into the 60s and near 70° west. Enjoy that sunshine while we’ve got it!
Dry conditions should prevail through the daytime hours Monday before showers and embedded thunder roll into town overnight and Tuesday morning. Unsettled conditions will hold through the day Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common by Tuesday night across the region.
The next low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact us Friday into Saturday. Look for a more widespread, heavier round of precipitation with this particular system as we close the work week.
Despite cooler shots of air flowing in briefly behind frontal passages, there’s no sustained below normal temperature regime on the horizon, and for good reason with this kind of MJO:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/03/sunday-morning-rambles-tracking-2-systems-this-week-and-more-unseasonably-warm-conditions-ahead/
Mar 02
Updated 03.02.24 @ 6:38a
An unseasonably mild week is on tap with a couple chances of rain and embedded thunder. Widespread, organized severe weather isn’t anticipated in the upcoming week.
Forecast Period: 03.02.24 – 03.09.24
After a quiet weekend (including a progressively brighter sky :-)), unsettled weather will come at us in 2 waves in the week ahead: Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Friday evening into Saturday. In both cases, we expect widespread precipitation. In the case of our early week system, embedded thunder (non-severe) can’t be ruled out. With our late week storm system, the early call now is for more of an organized general rain to fall. Colder air will return to the region by the latter part of next weekend, potentially including some snow showers by Sunday.
Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:
*10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.00” to 2.00”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/02/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-46/
Mar 01
Updated 03.01.24 @ 5:53a
Despite a rather gloomy and seasonally chilly Friday, the remainder of the upcoming 7-day period will feature nothing but unseasonably warm conditions. We’re set to open meteorological spring like we closed out meteorological winter: well above normal in the temperature department.
After a perfect weekend (at least by early-March standards), we’ll see periods of unsettled weather as an anomalous upper air pattern remains locked in. Note the deep western trough and expansive, strong eastern ridge.
We’ll push 60° Saturday, 70° Sunday, and zip well into the 70s Monday. (Monday’s record is 78°, set back in 1983, just in case you were wondering).
Dry conditions should remain until we get to Monday night and Tuesday morning.
It’s all the start of an unsettled pattern. An upper low will lift north into the OHV Wednesday with additional showers, followed by a new cold front and associated surface low set to impact our neck of the woods mid and late week.
By the time we get to next weekend, widespread 1”+ rain totals can be expected from a combination of the systems.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/01/another-spring-like-weekend-and-week-ahead/
Feb 29
Updated 02.29.24 @ 5:13a
Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.
This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.
Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.
The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:
What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.
It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.
As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/29/long-range-report-warm-open-to-meteorological-spring-mjo-and-nao-impacts-longer-term/
Feb 28
Updated 02.28.24 @ 7:44a Today will serve as a reminder we are still in winter, after all, but another quick warm-up will get underway as we head through the weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/28/video-sharply-colder-today-before-a-quick-warm-up-no-let-up-to-the-warm-pattern-down-the-road/
Feb 27
Updated 02.27.24 @ 6:42p
As we write this update, severe storms are firing across northern IL where a Tornado Watch has been issued until 11p (eastern). Meanwhile, all is quiet on the home front, thanks to strong “capping” in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that cap likely won’t hold and we still anticipate scattered strong to severe storms to impact central and southern Indiana during the overnight.
All modes of severe weather remain on the table, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Initiation of convection across central/ southern IN should come around or just after midnight and end by 3a to 4a (west to east).
Please make sure you have a means to receive the latest severe weather alerts prior to heading to bed tonight.
By the time most are waking up Wednesday, we’ll be talking about an entirely different array of conditions. Sharply colder air, light snow showers, and strong northwesterly winds will ensure to remind folks it’s late-February, after all.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/27/dinnertime-rambles-active-night-and-sharply-colder-wednesday/
Feb 27
Updated 02.27.24 @ 5:58a An unseasonably warm and quiet daytime will take a stormy turn tonight. All modes of severe weather are in play late evening and into the overnight,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/27/video-severe-weather-expected-this-evening-and-overnight-sharply-colder-wednesday/
Feb 26
Updated 02.26.24 @ 5:51p
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the ‘marginal’ risk area within their Day 1 Outlook. This is for the potential of isolated strong cells developing later this evening and through the overnight (large hail being the biggest concern from any stronger cell that pops), but this shouldn’t be a widespread severe weather event by any stretch of the imagination.
The Day 2 Outlook remains largely unchanged from this morning across our immediate area.
Concern remains that all modes of severe weather will be realized across northern IL and northern IN Tuesday evening into the overnight.
We want to reiterate that the majority of the daytime should be void of any sort of significant rain or storms across the state. It’s after 7p, and more so after 9p, that we expect discrete cells to initialize and roll across northern IN. These discrete cells will be capable of rotating (TOR potential remains), but also have the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The most widespread of evening convection should be focused north of the city, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on tonight’s and Tuesday morning’s data.
We continue to believe a more pronounced squall line will march east across the state, including central and southern Indiana, during the overnight and predawn hours and it’s with this line that an elevated damaging wind threat will be hoisted. Timing this threat out features the 2a to 5a Wednesday time block from west to east. We recommend reviewing your severe weather safety plan and have a means of receiving the latest warning information should they be issued.
Showers and embedded thunder will remain widespread through the early morning hours before pushing off to our east by mid morning. By this time, we’ll be trending sharply colder (temperatures will fall off the cliff Wednesday morning), drier, but very windy.
Predawn highs around 60° Wednesday will be shaved by 30° by late morning along with a biting northwesterly wind gusting 30-40 MPH.
High pressure will deliver a colder, but sunny Thursday before a weak system delivers a return of clouds and light (insignificant) showers to close the work week.
The weekend continues to look mighty nice, including a quick rebound in the mercury and another taste of spring ahead of our next approaching storm early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/monday-evening-thoughts-on-tonight-wednesday/
Feb 26
Updated 02.26.24 @ 7:30a We’ll go from “chamber of commerce” type weather to open the work week, including pushing for a record high later this afternoon, to rounds of storms…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/video-forecasting-record-warmth-today-timing-out-rounds-of-storms-late-tonight-wednesday-am/