Forecast Updated 02.19.14 @ 7:58a

Severe Weather And Flooding Potential…Today we’re focused on two rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain.  The first wave of rain and thunder will “rumble” through the region Thursday morning.  We don’t anticipate severe weather with this initial wave, but thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours in spots as the warm front lifts north through the area.  After a chilly start, temperatures will suddenly zoom to close to 60 by the afternoon.

Our attention will then turn west as we watch a line of thunderstorms organize this afternoon.  Within this line of storms damaging straight line winds will be a possibility (in excess of 60 MPH) as it crosses the state.  We bracket 5PM to 9PM for the most likely period for severe weather here in central Indiana.  We think the greatest severe threat will lie within the squall line, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as some data today tries to develop a couple of stronger individual cells in advance of the squall line.  It’ll be important to stay tuned to local radars and your favorite media outlet.

Heavy rain and flooding will be the other concern, especially when combined with a presently frozen ground and hefty snow pack.  If you live in, or around, a flood prone area please monitor water levels tomorrow and prepare to move to higher ground.

Finally, strong and gusty northwest winds will blow tonight and may reach speeds close to 50 MPH as low pressure deepens heading north into the Great Lakes.  “Bombogenesis” and “fresh water fury” will be accurate terms to describe this low as it rapidly strengthens heading northeast into the Lakes region.  With a wet ground, additional wind damage is possible even behind the cold front with winds gusting in the 50 MPH range.

Drier, Chilly Close To The Week…The above mentioned gusty northwest winds will allow a cooler air mass to blow in to wrap up the work week.  We think dry skies return Friday and continue into Saturday.

Watching Fast Moving Disturbances; Bitter Cold Returns…We’ll continue to keep a close eye on disturbances moving east over the weekend.  Disagreement amongst forecast models continues Sunday and we’ll “split the difference” and forecast light snow potential Sunday for now.  Another disturbance may deliver light snow late Monday into Tuesday.

By the middle of next week, the arctic express will return and deliver a bitter feel to our air mass. Looking longer term, there continue to be indications that we have to deal with a bitterly cold close to February and open to March.  In fact, latest data carries this cold and wintry regime well into March…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

• 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.25″
• 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″

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Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon.               25/ 43 28/ 42 35/ 56 25/ 41 27/ 39 23/ 34 17/ 26  0.00” 0.00″…

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