May 11
Updated 05.11.22 @ 6a
I. Even in “boring” patterns as a whole, there’s excitement to be found. That isn’t more evident than what we’ll notice today as a “back door” front will blow into the state. Before the front arrives from the east (hence, back door), dew points in the low to middle 70s (jungle-like feel) will combine with temperatures in the mid-80s to push heat indices into the 90° range. By mid-afternoon, we’ll note a wind shift taking hold from the east and a much more comfortable airmass oozing into the state from Ohio. This transition in air masses could spark an afternoon shower or thunderstorm- especially around Indy and points east.
II. After Wednesday’s “excitement,” generally quiet weather will be with us to close out the work week. That will begin to change as we rumble into the weekend. A series of fronts will sweep through the area Saturday (image 1 below) and again Monday (image 2 below). Each of these will deliver a smattering of showers and storms (splash and dash variety), focusing in on Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening into Monday morning for greatest overall coverage. On average, area rain gauges likely accumulate between 0.40” and 0.60” between the (2) systems.
III. The MJO will, undoubtedly, have big impacts on our late May pattern. After remaining in the null phase for the better part of the past few weeks, things are getting quite amplified. What’s most interesting though is the difference between the way the GEFS and European handle things post 5/18. Do we circle back into Phase 7 (would extend the threat of cooler than normal temperatures, locally) or roll into Phase 8 (a warmer pattern for the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley)? Stay tuned. We continue to believe the more transitional regime is most likely as we push into Memorial Day…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/11/wednesday-morning-rambles-back-door-front-excitement-and-insight-into-the-late-may-pattern/
May 10
Updated 05.10.22 @ 6:30a
There’s a reason we labeled the midweek pattern as a “taste” of summer. Thankfully, (speaking for most, I believe) we’re not ready to “lock and load” the summer like heat and humidity. In fact, we’ll get some relief from humidity by the latter stages of the work week. By early next week, highs will drop back into the lower 70s and overnight lows will fall into the 40s.
Despite the roller coaster ride the next couple of weeks will likely deliver from a temperature perspective (remember, we have the MJO to deal with again now, too), the pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal over the upcoming 10-14 days.
While the pattern is likely one to continue featuring wild swings in temperatures to wrap up the month, most of the frontal systems seem like they won’t deliver excessive rainfall amounts from this distance. It should be noted the European data above has plenty of support from its American and Canadian counterparts.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/10/transitional-is-the-theme-for-our-temperature-pattern-upcoming-10-14-days-precipitation-pattern-not-so-much/
May 09
Updated 05.09.22 @ 7:10a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/09/video-pleasant-open-to-the-work-week-turns-more-humid-more-organized-rain-storm-chances-return-by-the-weekend/
May 08
Updated 05.08.22 @ 12:30p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/08/video-warming-up-and-turning-quite-humid-overall-quiet-until-next-weekend/
May 07
Updated 05.07.22 @ 8:46a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/07/video-here-comes-the-sun-extended-stretch-of-quieter-weather/
May 06
Updated 05.06.22 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/06/video-rain-becomes-more-widespread-by-evening-vast-weekend-improvements-and-looking-ahead-to-a-taste-of-summer-next-week/
May 05
Updated 05.05.22 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/05/video-same-upper-low-were-tracking-this-morning-remains-on-the-playing-field-into-late-next-week-heat-builds-in-the-week-ahead/
May 04
Updated 05.04.22 @ 7:54a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/04/video-wet-close-to-the-work-week-before-a-vastly-improved-weekend-summer-like-pattern-next-week/
May 03
Updated 05.03.22 @ 7:37a
Rain and embedded thunder is widespread across the state this morning.
Most of the morning round of rain and storms will end from southwest to northeast (may linger through a good chunk of the day across northern parts of the state) by late morning. Should we work any sort of sunshine into the mix, that will only further aid in destabilizing the local atmosphere for what will likely be a 2nd round of storms this afternoon into the early evening hours.
High resolution guidance shows this 2nd round of storms firing up around 2 to the 3 o’clock. A few of these could become strong to severe, especially from Indianapolis and points east.
Thankfully, things will quieten down quickly come evening. Most, if not all, of the storms should be to our east by 8p. That will then set the stage for a much more pleasant day Wednesday, complete with sunshine.
Enjoy it as our next storm system will arrive quickly Thursday. After a bit of sun to start our day, clouds will quickly increase and showers and thunderstorms will follow by afternoon. As low pressure traverses the Ohio Valley, unsettled weather will persist Friday.
A drier and cooler air mass will work in here for the weekend. By that time, additional rainfall amounts in excess of 2″ can be expected across many central IN communities.
Saturday will feature dry conditions and improving skies as we progress through the day, complete with a northeast breeze. Dry conditions should also remain in place for Mother’s Day.
Longing for a quieter, more pleasant pattern? You may be in luck as we rumble into mid-May. An upper level ridge is expected to expand across the region which will go a long way in helping provide a stretch of drier and significantly warmer weather. In fact, we should see a “taste” of summer towards the early and middle parts of next week. Hang in there, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/03/going-back-to-back-still-looking-to-dry-things-out-this-weekend-pattern-change-on-deck-mid-month/
May 02
Updated 05.02.22 @ 6:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/02/video-busy-few-days-before-a-calmer-pleasant-weekend/