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A Closer Look At Thursday

* A video update was posted late last night and talks about the rain, bitterly cold weekend ahead, and  looks at Thanksgiving.  Scroll below for that update.

Today will feature scattered light to moderate rain, but as noted last night, that rain will grow more widespread tonight.  The latest HRRR simulated radar shows that well.

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High temperatures today are forecast to reach the middle 50s, per the latest HRRR.

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We’re still tracking major league early season arctic air due in here this weekend.  Take a look at just how far below normal these temperatures are come Sunday (shown in degrees celsius).  Wow!  Our forecast high of 24 will be the coldest November day in 13 years and a whopping 25 degrees below normal!  Thanks, as always, to Weatherbell Analytics model suite for this data.

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No Comments Arctic Cold, Autumn, Rain

Wednesday Evening Video Update: Rain Moving In; Arctic Blast This Weekend

http:/ Tonight’s Video Highlights: We talk rain and amounts for Thursday and Friday. The coldest air of the season and coldest November day in some 13 years is ahead! A…

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, NAM Model, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Monday Forecast: A Calmer, Colder Week Ahead…

Updated 11.17.13 @ 8:46pm

Zionsville, IN Sunday was a violent day across central Indiana, including multiple tornado touchdowns (Lebanon and Kokomo, for example), heavy rain (widespread 1″+ totals), and damaging straight line winds (numerous trees and power lines down across the region, fueled by 70-80 MPH wind gusts).

Thankfully the new work week will dawn with a much calmer weather pattern in place, albeit much cooler.  High pressure will dominate our region, featuring dry and mostly sunny conditions both Monday and Tuesday.  Monday will still be a bit breezy and we’ll note a stronger push of cold air arriving Monday night, setting the stage for a seasonably chilly Tuesday and Wednesday.

Our next weather maker will arrive as we wrap up the work week. The culprit will be a cold front blowing through the Hoosier state and while model data differs significantly on precipitation totals in the Thursday-Friday time period, we’re confident in rain falling followed by a big blast of cold air for the weekend.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving week, the threat is there for some wintry “mischief” as southern branch low pressure attempts to attack the cold high to our north… We have plenty of time to watch this, but just make a mental note in the back of your mind for now as you prep for Thanksgiving holiday travel.

Monday: Mostly sunny; 40/ 51

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Tuesday: Mostly sunny; 29/ 48

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Wednesday: Increasing afternoon cloudiness; 30/ 51

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Thursday: Cloudy and raw with rain likely; 43/ 49

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Friday: Cloudy with rain likely; 44/ 49

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Saturday: Mostly cloudy and colder; 30/ 39

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Sunday:  Mostly sunny and cold; 19/ 30

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Extremely Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Ahead…

Good morning!  We’re waking up to sunshine this morning after a round of rain and thunderstorms overnight.  Over 1″ of rain fell for many during the overnight period (1.53″ to be exact here at IndyWx.com HQ).

Unfortunately, skies now are clearing and this is only going to aid in the severe weather potential today, including some dangerous long-lived and strong tornadoes.

ECWVThis is a very rare November high severe weather risk day and must be taken seriously by all.

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The thinking here hasn’t changed in that we feel discrete super cells develop during the late morning and early afternoon before morphing into a squall line capable of producing damaging straight line wind. With the dynamics and energy in play here, any of these super cells could spawn a tornado. Additionally, it’s possible that a few of these tornadoes could be long tracked and very strong tornadoes.  The latest high-resolution simulated radar data shows this well.

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We still target a cold front passing through the region around, or just after, sunset and with this frontal passage the severe weather will come to an abrupt end.  The latest HRRR data shows this well as dew points begin to crash behind the cold front, indicative a much drier, cooler, and more stable air mass arriving tonight.

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No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes