The 2 big teleconnections (at least that we lean heavily on this time of year) both favor our cooler than normal regime lasting into the early to middle part of May. That’s not to say, there won’t be periods of warmth getting into the region ahead of cold fronts, just that in the overall sense, temperatures should continue to run below normal into the 1st half of May.
We can thank the positive PNA and negative NAO.
After data aligned in handling the MJO movement into early May, disagreement has returned, and we’ll need to keep a close eye on this. Hopefully, by the time we release our official May Outlook (next week), agreement will return.
If, indeed, we do get things into Phase 4 (such as the GEFS shows), a warmer pattern should emerge towards the end of the 1st week of the month. Again, we’ll monitor these trends closely.
The latest European Weeklies remain cool into mid-May.
After the recent dry stretch through the majority of the month, the pattern should transition towards a more active/ wetter than normal time of things over the next 2-3 weeks.
