Apr 10
Updated 04.10.24 @ 7:40a We’re only dealing with a few light showers out the door this morning, but a heavier and more widespread area of rain will develop through the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/10/video-heavy-rain-develops-later-today-into-thursday-keeping-an-eye-on-the-potential-of-strong-storms-early-next-week/
Apr 09
Updated 04.09.24 @ 7:20a
We’ll have a lot of clouds around today but the lions share of our Tuesday will be dry. That changes this evening as we target better chances of showers and storms to develop across southern and southeastern Indiana- primarily south and east of the city, itself.
This is the beginning of another unsettled and dreary stretch as a surface low lifts north and tracks through the Ohio Valley midweek.
Periods of heavy rain can be expected Wednesday evening into Thursday and we continue to monitor the potential of strong to severe storms in the “warm sector” across Ohio Thursday.
In general, most central IN rain gauges should accumulate 1.5” to 2.5” of rain but there will be locally heavier amounts.
Upper level energy will whip in behind the departing low keeping showers in play as we wrap the work week up on Friday.
The weekend still looks like it’ll open on a great note with increasingly sunny and mild conditions Saturday before another opportunity for scattered showers and embedded thunder Sunday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/09/dreary-stretch-before-a-pleasant-start-to-the-weekend/
Apr 08
Updated 04.08.24 @ 6:30p
We’re running a little more than 3° below normal to open the month, but changes are in the offing. The majority of the upcoming 7-day period should feature seasonal to above normal temperatures and that will likely only strengthen into the Week 2 timeframe.
Unfortunately, we have a big rain event set to unfold as we roll through the middle of the week. Rain (more “showery” in nature) will continue as we close out the work week before a gorgeous Saturday.
Our expected active spring will remain intact over the next couple weeks, including an overall above average look in the rainfall department.
In the short-term period, this is highlighted between what falls Wednesday-Friday.
Though severe weather won’t be a concern, heavy rain will during the aforementioned timeframe. We still think widespread 1.5”+ amounts are likely for many area rain gauges. As of now, severe weather isn’t expected, locally, based on the SLP track. Further east into Ohio, a few severe storms will be on the table. We’ll monitor for any last minute west adjustments leading into the system.
Widespread, soaking rains will turn more “showery” in nature Friday before dry air takes firm control and provides a pleasant Saturday.
Don’t get used to the dry weather. Despite the warmer trend, another round of rain and storms can be expected the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week.
Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.5” to 2.5”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/08/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-50/
Apr 08
Updated 04.08.24 @ 7:40a Despite a few mid and high level clouds, we’ll enjoy absolutely stellar conditions today. Enjoy, friends! Unfortunately, we’ll have to trade off the gorgeous weather today…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/08/video-gorgeous-weather-today-wind-whipped-rain-storm-on-deck-midweek-and-turning-much-warmer-next-week/
Apr 07
Updated 04.07.24 @ 10:12a Pleasant conditions this morning will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky throughout the afternoon and evening and scattered storms will follow. It continues to appear…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/07/video-evening-storms-pave-way-for-improving-skies-monday-heavy-rain-event-mid-late-week/
Apr 06
Updated 04.06.24 @ 11:06a We couldn’t ask for better weather today (after that cold start). You earned it, friends! Clouds quickly return Sunday and give way to late afternoon and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/06/video-saturday-stunner-gives-way-to-sunday-storms-perfect-timing-monday-ahead-of-more-heavy-rain/
Apr 05
The upcoming “immediate term” forecast package has a little something for everyone: Good, Bad, and UGLY.
Let’s start with the “good” first, we should finally see drier air win out and get us back into the sunshine department Saturday. The trade off? Unseasonably cold conditions taking hold under those clearing skies tonight and diminishing wind. Most areas should wake up to the upper 20s come Saturday morning, but under that strong April sun angle, temperatures will zoom into the middle 50s by afternoon. Enjoy the badly needed vitamin D as it won’t stick around terribly long.
Our next storm system will deliver a round of gusty storms in here by Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunshine to start the day will give way to increasing clouds and scattered to numerous storms later in the day. We’re monitoring for the potential of a few strong-to-severe storms during this time period.
We still have our fingers crossed for a brightening sky to take hold Monday, but this isn’t a slam dunk by any means. – More of a now cast type situation if you ask us as the region will be in between systems. We’ll continue to hope for the best.
Regardless, active weather quickly returns midweek as a surface low rides northeast into the Ohio Valley. This will mean widespread rain and embedded thunder will return, and heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely.
Heaviest rain likely arrives later Wednesday into Thursday followed by a gusty and briefly colder close to next week. By this point, early indications are that the region can expect another significant rain event, including widespread 2″+ totals (we’ll hone in on those amounts as we get closer).
There’s ensemble support to back up the heavy rain idea.
Additional details to come throughout the weekend (and beyond) around these items and more.
Happy Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/friday-afternoon-rambles-close-eyes-on-mondays-cloud-cover-and-gearing-up-for-another-active-week-of-hefty-rain-storms/
Apr 05
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/
Apr 04
Updated 04.04.24 @ 7:40a A big ole upper low will move only sluggishly over the next day or two, keeping clouds, light precipitation, and chilly temperatures around. The good news?…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/04/video-trending-in-the-right-direction-as-we-open-the-weekend-but-still-have-to-get-through-a-couple-damp-chilly-days/
Apr 03
Updated 04.03.24 @ 7:40a Clouds and showers (even embedded thunder by this afternoon) will transition to wet snow tonight into Thursday morning. The wet snow will fall heavily enough to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/03/video-weather-whiplash-indeed-another-active-stretch-on-deck-by-early-next-week/