January 2022 archive

Updated 01.01.22 @ 8:06a

From our family to yours, here’s wishing you a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2022!

As we embark on a new year, a new weather pattern will take hold. Consider the drastic difference of going from a regime that’s been much more October or November-like (December ‘21 temperatures ran a stunning 8.8° above average on the month) to one that will feature a series of reinforcing blasts of cold air- at what’s traditionally the coldest time of the year.

The reasons behind the shift in the pattern start with the MJO moving into Phase 8.

Can we amplify things into Phase 1 towards mid month? The American modeling suggests that’s on the playing field. Meanwhile, the Euro wants to take things towards the neutral phase. If we can swing into Phase 1, the ante would be upped for “locking” the cold in for the 2nd half of the month.

As it is, the majority of teleconnections are being “forced” (byproduct, in my opinion, of the MJO) into more favorable phases for cold. Remember, only a couple days ago this wasn’t being shown, but as the data is understanding the driving force (MJO movement), the EPO is joining the PNA and WPO colder camp. I would expect the AO trend to follow suit in the week ahead.

More on all of this in the AM, including the opportunities for snow and wintry precipitation (more than the novelty level stuff we’ll deal with early Sunday AM) in the weeks ahead…