Updated 12.06.21 @ 7:30a
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December 2021 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/06/video-colder-to-open-the-work-week-discussing-the-reasons-why-its-important-to-stay-on-guard-for-potential-big-changes-to-the-pattern-late-month/
Dec 05
VIDEO: Showers Build In Later Today; Light Snow Event Tuesday…
Updated 12.05.21 @ 11a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/05/video-showers-build-in-later-today-light-snow-event-tuesday/
Dec 04
Saturday Morning Long Range Musings And A Note On The Shorter Term Pattern…
Updated 12.04.21 @ 7:50a
With a current combo of the PNA, EPO, and Phase 6 of the MJO, there will be absolutely no denying a period of significant warmth (for the time of year) over the coming couple of weeks- especially during the Week 2 timeframe.
What we now look ahead towards is if, indeed, we can get the MJO into Phase 7 and, if so, with staying power. If so, do we continue to rumble into Phase 8 or try and sneak back into Phase 6? Those are questions that will be answered in the coming weeks and be a big reason in either pulling in a rather significant pattern shift towards cold, or keep things on the milder side. The hunch here is that we will get into 7 and 8, but the duration is in question. In any event, these are the temperature composites in Phase 7 (December) and Phase 8 (January).
In any event, one can see the potential on the table…
In the shorter term, the pattern in the week to 10 days ahead will take a turn towards the more active. Sunday will feature the first of (3) storm systems we’re tracking in the upcoming week, including the opportunity of wintry weather (more on that later this wknd) Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/04/saturday-morning-long-range-musings-and-a-note-on-the-shorter-term-pattern/
Dec 03
VIDEO: Topsy-Turvy Regime Over The Upcoming 10 Days…
Updated 12.03.21 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/03/video-topsy-turvy-regime-over-the-upcoming-10-days/
Dec 02
VIDEO: Unseasonably Mild And Quiet For Now, But Are Changes Lurking?
Updated 12.02.21 @ 6:40p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/02/video-unseasonably-mild-and-quiet-for-now-but-are-changes-lurking/
Dec 01
VIDEO: Wintry “Mischief” Next Week?
Updated 12.02.21 @ 6:45a Just a quick note this morning to let you know I don’t have any changes to the ideas presented here last night. We’ll review the latest…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/01/video-wintry-mischief-next-week/
Dec 01
Welcome To December: Things Begin To Grow More Interesting With Each Passing Day…
Updated 12.01.21 @ 7:40a
In the short-term, we have to deal with a fast moving system that will deliver rain to central parts of the state through the 1st half of the day. Most of the measurable rain will be off to our southeast after lunchtime.
A breezy warm-up will take place Thursday, helping boost temperature all the way into the lower 60s for several central Indiana neighborhoods- not bad at all for December 2nd, huh?!
Mostly dry weather will prevail across immediate central Indiana into the 1st half of the weekend. Similar to last week, we’ll note systems flying by to our north, but most, if not all, of these features will remain just to our north.
Moisture will return by Sunday as a rather widespread rain builds into the state ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, a punch of colder air will flow into the Ohio Valley as we open the work week.
That will then potentially set us up for more interesting times from a wintry perspective for the next system (targeting next Tuesday). We note, to no surprise, 6 days out, differences with the model guidance. Things range from a healthy winter storm (GFS solution) to an all rain event (European solution). We will keep close eyes. Timing will have to be perfect for the system to take advantage of the colder airmass flowing into the region early next week behind the front, especially without a favorable position from the high to our north (that would be able to continue funneling in colder air as the low pressure system moves through the region). Stay tuned.
If that wasn’t enough to keep us busy over the coming several days, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is once again trying to show some life. Note how the amplitude carries things into Phase 6 and 7 towards mid-month. While Phase 6 is a very warm phase (compared to normal), major changes take place with Phase 7 as more widespread and meaningful cold air takes hold.
There’s no denying the warmth associated with Phase 6 and unfavorable teleconnections in the short-term (shown below), but it’ll be mighty interesting to see if data starts trending colder towards mid-month if we can get things into Phase 7.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/01/welcome-to-december-things-begin-to-grow-more-interesting-with-each-passing-day/