August 2021 archive

Aug 31

Winds Of Change On The Doorstep…

Updated 08.31.21 @ 8:11a

We have one more day of humid conditions, but a wholesale pattern change will have things feeling much different around these parts beginning tomorrow, and continuing for the foreseeable future.

Note the drier air beginning to invade northern portions of IL, IN, and OH this morning. While dew points are still stuck in the mid-upper 60s, locally, that less humid air is heading south.

Note how the trough really amplifies next week across the eastern portion of the country. This will pull down an extended stretch of cooler, less humid air as we move through the better part of the first half of September.

A reinforcing cold front will sweep through here Saturday (yes, we’re giving in to building rain and storm chances into our Saturday forecast) with unsettled conditions.

This is likely going to set the stage for an overall wetter, cooler stretch of weather next week. Additional rain chances will arrive Tuesday and Thursday of next week.

8 of the past 10 days featured highs at or above the 90° mark, and was easily the hottest stretch of the summer. Looking ahead, a “hint” of fall shows up on the medium range charts just in time for us to kick off meteorological fall (officially, tomorrow).

Much more later, including our September Outlook…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/31/winds-of-change-on-the-doorstep/

Aug 30

VIDEO: Tracking Heavy Storms Over The Next 24-36 Hours Before Much Drier, Cooler Air Invades To Close Out The Week…

Updated 08.30.21 @ 7:50a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/30/video-tracking-heavy-storms-over-the-next-24-36-hours-before-much-drier-cooler-air-invades-to-close-out-the-week/

Aug 29

VIDEO: Devastating Hurricane Ida Makes Landfall This Afternoon; Tracking BIG Changes Here By Midweek, Continuing Into Labor Day Weekend…

Updated 08.29.21 @ 11a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/29/video-devastating-hurricane-ida-makes-landfall-this-afternoon-tracking-big-changes-here-by-midweek-continuing-into-labor-day-weekend/

Aug 28

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 08.28.21 @ 6a

A persistent trough will remain in place across the northern Rockies while weak ridging takes up shop across the Great Lakes region.
Warmest anomalies through the forecast period can be expected across the Mid-Atlantic and central Plains, into the Southwest. The northern Rockies will remain cooler than normal. The cooler than normal conditions across the central Gulf Coast region is associated with the daytime highs being lower as Ida moves north early in the period.
The biggest focus through the middle of the week will have to do with the remnant moisture associated with Ida. Active times will return to the upper Midwest as well.
We forecast 7-day rainfall amounts to check-in between 1″ and 1.5″ for most of central Indiana.

Forecast Period: 08.28.21 through 09.04.21

The period will open with an active weather pattern. A cold front will slowly press south through early week. At the same time, Hurricane Ida is forecast to make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast (likely along the LA coastline) Sunday afternoon, and as a major hurricane at that. The remnant moisture of Ida will lift north before curling east. Eventually, we believe the remnant moisture of Ida will get tangled up with the aforementioned cold front. While we’ll need to keep a close eye on data to see if any adjustments are needed early week, as of now, we believe the heavy rain threat will lie just south of our immediate area (more so along and south of the OH River). We’ll keep a close eye on things. Regardless, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front sinks south. By midweek, the region will be in a much drier (and somewhat cooler) northeasterly airflow. Dry conditions are expected to continue into the holiday weekend ahead with slowly moderating temperatures.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/28/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-43/

Aug 27

VIDEO: Explaining How Ida And A Cold Front Can Work Together To Draw In MUCH Drier, Cooler Air Leading Up To The Labor Day Weekend…

Updated 08.27.21 @ 9:15a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/27/video-explaining-how-ida-and-a-cold-front-can-work-together-to-draw-in-much-drier-cooler-air-leading-up-to-the-labor-day-weekend/

Aug 26

Meteorological Fall Only 5 Days Away- Long Range Update Into Mid September…

Updated 08.26.21 @ 8:48a

Is there anything more polarizing than pumpkin spice products?! Count my house in favor of rolling these items out in late August. (I think my wife bought her first autumn candle of the year a few weeks ago and, rest assured, upon our return from the beautiful Gulf Coast, it will be lit almost immediately).

Despite the fact we’re in the hottest and most humid stretch of the summer (mind you, in a summer that really hasn’t been that bad from that from a heat perspective), we’re at a point where we’re shaving off nearly 2 and a half minutes of daylight per day.

As we look at the upcoming 3-4 weeks, the primary drivers still appear to be the EPO and MJO movement. Pardon us if you’re tired of hearing this word, but it’s still the best, in our opinion, when describing the upcoming several weeks: “transient.”

Consider the more amplified look to the MJO:

As well as the EPO:

Thinking here is that the EPO and MJO will work in tandem to drive a very transient regime over the next 3-4 weeks. Perhaps the past few days have been a hint of what’s to come with more appreciable precipitation into the “heart” of central Indiana- an area that, for the most part, missed out over the latter half of July and first half of August. Officially, Indianapolis is now only 0.89″ in the hole.

Let’s take a look at some of the more trusted medium-long range computer model guidance:

JMA Weeklies

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

CFSv2

Weeks 1-2

Weeks 3-4

European Weeklies

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

The largest takeaway between the drivers (MJO and EPO) and computer guidance above is that we will inject a wetter regime back into the mix over the upcoming 2-4 weeks (especially compared to the past 4 weeks). While we’ll likely cool somewhat in early September, the pattern, as a whole, looks warmer than normal over the upcoming 2 to 4 weeks, locally. The opposite can be said for the northern Rockies as early winter conditions will make their presence felt during this period. It’ll be particularly interesting to see if the JMA is correct in driving that strong western trough in the Weeks 3-4 time period. Should that come to fruition, it would likely pump unseasonably hot conditions across the East during that time frame, but, eventually, a piece of that trough may shift east late month and set up a cooler regime to end September.

Regardless, be sure to enjoy that PSL… 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/26/meteorological-fall-only-5-days-away-long-range-update-into-mid-september/

Aug 25

VIDEO: Heat And Humidity Lead To Dangerous Conditions To Be Outdoors; Watching the Gulf of Mexico Early Next Week And Prospects Of A Cooler Open To September…

Updated 08.25.21 @ 8:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/25/video-heat-and-humidity-lead-to-dangerous-conditions-to-be-outdoors-watching-the-gulf-of-mexico-early-next-week-and-prospects-of-a-cooler-open-to-september/

Aug 24

VIDEO: Eyeing A Potential Pattern Change As We Get Into September…

Updated 08.24.21 @ 10:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/24/video-eyeing-a-potential-pattern-change-as-we-get-into-september/

Aug 23

VIDEO: Heat, Humidity, And Tracking Storm Complexes In The Week Ahead…

Updated 08.23.21 @ 9a

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Aug 22

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook: Heat, Humidity Top Story, Locally; Henri Impacts New England…

Updated 08.22.21 @ 6:30a

An upper level ridge will expand across the Ohio Valley through the upcoming week. Meanwhile, a trough will continue to provide unseasonably chilly air for the northern Rockies and inner-mountain region.
Well above average temperatures will take up shop from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Unseasonably chilly conditions will prevail across the northern/ central Rockies.
Above normal precipitation is expected in association with Henri across New England. The northern Plains and upper Midwest can also expect above normal rainfall in the week ahead.
We forecast on average between 0.50″ and 1.00″ of rain across central Indiana in the upcoming 7-day period.

Forecast Period: 08.22.21 through 08.29.21

The overall weather pattern in the week ahead will feature an expanding ridge of high pressure into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. This will lead to oppressive heat and humidity expanding northeast (multiple days of highs into the lower 90s with high humidity values will make it feel closer to 100° through early and middle parts of the work week). Meanwhile, a persistent trough will continue to take up residence through the early part of the forecast period across the northern Rockies (additional early season snow will fly for the high peaks above 12k feet). The other big story during this forecast period? Henri, of course. Henri will deliver quite a blow to our friends in New England beginning later today, continuing a heavy interior rainfall threat through the early and middle part of the work week.

Back here on the home front, each and every day will feature isolated storm coverage. While “isolated” is the key word, if you find yourself under one of these storms, a quick 1″+ of rain is a good bet with the moisture content we’ll be dealing with. Somewhat better storm coverage is anticipated during the 2nd half of the work week (we’ll label it “widely scattered to scattered.” ;-)).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/22/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-heat-humidity-top-story-locally-henri-impacts-new-england/

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