Updated 04.13.21 @ 7:40a
This afternoon’s Client video discussion will handle the short-term update, including “nuisance variety” rain chances and opportunity of patchy frost late week.
As we look to late month and early May, there’s reason to think the mid-April cool down loses some traction (and perhaps flips to a significantly warmer regime).
We currently have multiple players aligned to support the cool stretch:
MJO in Phase 7
Deeply negative east Pacific oscillation (EPO)
Negative north Atlantic oscillation (NAO)
To no surprise, given the above, we’re looking at an extended period (7-10 days worth) of below to well below normal temperatures.
However, the questions begin to mount by late month as we lose the influence of the negative EPO and the MJO rumbles into Phase 8. This should put pressure on the pattern to at least moderate closer to normal. The one item that’s keeping us a bit shy on buying into a full blown “warm” pattern is the influence of what still looks to be a negative NAO late April and early May. This is still a cool signal, and worth keeping an eye on as we progress deeper into May, itself.
Early thinking here for May (with a lingering negative NAO) is for slightly cooler and drier than normal conditions, locally. We’ll keep an eye on things and update accordingly as we move forward.
In the meantime, enjoy the sunshine that’ll return this afternoon. Full video discussion will be online a bit later today!