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November 2020 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/15/video-big-wind-machine-slowly-diminishes-overnight-as-chilly-air-settles-in-looking-ahead-towards-thanksgiving/
Nov 14
VIDEO: Strong Fall Front Whips Across The State Tonight…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/14/video-strong-fall-front-whips-across-the-state-tonight/
Nov 13
Thanksgiving Nears: Now All We Can Do Is Watch Things Play Out…
We continue to watch substantial changes in the high latitudes and the modeling (on a daily basis) is being forced to correct towards more of a blocky look by Thanksgiving week. My suspicion is this has to do with Phase 2 of the MJO.
This morning, note the changes highlighted from now (image 1) to the 2 positives beginning to combine (image 2) to eventually form more of a high latitude ridge, or block (image 3).
By the time we get to Thanksgiving, note how there’s a totally different look and a pattern has ‘suddenly’ developed that can drive cold air (in more of a sustained manner) south into the Lower 48- particularly eastern portion of the country.
This doesn’t just happen overnight, but what we should begin to see on the modeling is more substantial cold shots for the last 10 days of November, including the threat of some sort of wintry “fun and games” from the Plains, stretching out to the Great Lakes and interior Northeast around Thanksgiving, itself. (Too soon to call for the OHV).
My suspicion is this is all thanks to the MJO. Note how the European continues to slow things in Phase 2 (a cold phase this time of year for our portion of the country).
The question then becomes “can we take things back into Phase(s) 7, 8, and 1 in December (all traditionally cold phases).
Or do we roll right into Phases 3, 4, 5, and 6 (all big time warm phases). That’s what our December forecast hinges on and we’ll keep a very close eye on things. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/13/thanksgiving-nears-now-all-we-can-do-is-watch-things-play-out/
Nov 12
Coming To A Fork In The Road: Long-Winded Discussion Where The Pattern Is Headed Late Nov and Dec…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/12/coming-to-a-fork-in-the-road-long-winded-discussion-where-the-pattern-is-headed-late-nov-and-dec/
Nov 11
VIDEO: A Lot On The Table Over The Next Couple Weeks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/11/video-a-lot-on-the-table-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Nov 10
VIDEO: Gusty Storms Arrive Into Central Indiana This Evening; Colder Trends Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/10/video-gusty-storms-arrive-into-central-indiana-this-evening-colder-trends-next-week/
Nov 10
All Hope’s Lost For Colder Weather Around Thanksgiving? Not So Fast, My Friend…
Our long standing November Outlook was for a chilly first couple days of the month followed by a prolonged period of transitional weather that eventually gave way to more cold around Thanksgiving. Admittedly, we didn’t think the stretch of warmth we’re now exiting would be as significant. While on the surface the longer range doesn’t appear to offer up much hope for significant chill, we continue to keep a close eye on the potential of a more sustained chilly pattern developing by late month.
First, let’s take a look at the latest teleconnections:
As has been the case of late, these are mostly aligned (all with the exception of the EPO briefly) in a manner that will make it tough to drive any sort of sustained chill through the next couple of weeks.
As such, the latest longer range data shows an overall seasonal to warmer than normal pattern continuing as Thanksgiving approaches, centered over the Plains.
This is a bit intriguing as the model is “trying” to see cooler anomalies along the eastern seaboard in the Week 2 timeframe. What’s even more interesting is the higher heights in Canada that develop in the Day 10-15 time frame. Note the dramatic difference between now and then.
That was the basis of our late November forecast (high latitude blocking and subsequent negative AO developing that would force the colder air south). While the teleconnections don’t support that as of yet, one of two things will happen in the coming couple weeks: 1.) the teleconnections will have to adjust or 2.) the model will be incorrect in showing the Canadian ridge developing.
That brings us to the MJO. Just after the 15th, guidance takes things into Phase 2. That phase in November favors colder than normal weather across the eastern 1/3 of the country, including right here on the home front.
Perhaps the longer range European ensemble is beginning to see this and will expand the chill in the coming 10 days, or so. One thing’s for sure, we’ll be here to keep a close eye on the developments and update accordingly. From this distance, I wouldn’t throw in the towel on the potential of a colder pattern developing late month. I know we’re not.
More later this evening, including the daily video update that will take a closer look at rain and embedded thunder tonight.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/10/all-hopes-lost-for-colder-weather-around-thanksgiving-not-so-fast-my-friend/
Nov 09
VIDEO: Tracking (2) Cold Fronts In The Week Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/09/video-tracking-2-cold-fronts-in-the-week-ahead/
Nov 07
Next Week Turns More Active…
Our quiet and unseasonably pleasant weather pattern will carry us straight through the weekend and to open the early part of the work week. Until Tuesday, expect a “rinse and repeat” pattern to the likes of what we’ve been enjoying the past several days. For those wrapping up final Harvest20 work or perhaps getting a jump on the exterior Christmas decorating, you couldn’t ask for better conditions.
Things will begin to change Tuesday as the first of (2) cold fronts moves through the region. Clouds will increase Monday evening and showers (perhaps even embedded thunder) will blow into town Tuesday PM into Wednesday morning.
Note “Eta” is also expected to be churning in the Gulf of Mexico at this point- at least in some shape or form. While we don’t expect impacts from what’s left of Eta up this way, our friends in the Southeast and potentially up the eastern seaboard should monitor the progress of Eta during the upcoming week.
Temperatures behind the frontal passage Wednesday will “cool” back to seasonal averages for this time of year.
As we look ahead to next weekend, another cold front will sweep through the region. Accordingly, we can expect another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. It then appears as if a “pop” of colder air (lows around freezing and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s) will flow into the region early parts of Week 2, at least briefly.
Models aren’t overly excited on rainfall numbers, locally. We’ll forecast between 0.50” and 1” falling between the two frontal passages which is in line with both the GFS and European ensemble data.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/07/next-week-turns-more-active/
Nov 06
The Beat Goes On (For Now)…
The unseasonable warmth won’t last, at least not to this magnitude, but an overall warmer than average pattern should persist over the upcoming couple of weeks.
The teleconnections (positive AO, positive EPO, negative PNA) are aligned in a manner that will drive the ‘mean’ ridge position across the eastern portion of the country.
Subsequently, the warmth, relative to normal, remains locked in over the East through mid month. Note how similar the GEFS and EPS are between Week 1 and Week 2.
Though we will cool off behind the passage of a cold front next week, we’re still running above normal into Week 2.
We’re not ready to throw in the towel on the idea we could be looking at a more wholesale pattern shift late month. The MJO supports that idea. Note Phase 2 this time of year favors the chill to settle into the East.
It’ll be an interesting test case in what otherwise looks to be a mild to much milder than normal (and quiet) pattern.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/06/the-beat-goes-on-for-now/