With a little over a week left in April, thoughts continue to focus more and more on May. While our official monthly outlook will come out later next week, we did want to present our early thoughts on the first week of the month.
In short, a rather persistent upper trough is expected to dominate the eastern 1/3 of the country into the 1st week of the month. This should keep things cooler than normal, overall.
This also lines up perfectly with Phase 2 of the MJO in early May. (After a week of disagreement, model data now agrees that the MJO should “flirt” with Phase 3 before cycling back into Phase 2 early May). We note this favors cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country.
From a precipitation perspective, there aren’t particularly strong signals for wetter/ drier than average conditions with Phase 2 in May- at least for the Ohio Valley.
The positive PNA, however, can support a bit more of an active storm track through our region and that’s what model data is showing from this distance.
The positive PNA, of course, also supports cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country…