April 2020 archive

May 2020 Outlook: From One Extreme To The Other?

While a good chunk of the 1st half of the month likely features below normal temperatures, is there potential for a “sudden summer” flip in the pattern for the 2nd half of the month? Let’s discuss!

First and foremost, averages in May for Indianapolis feature lows rising from the upper 40s to the upper 50s by month’s end, highs increasing from the upper 60s to the upper 70s, and 5.05″ of rain. Of note, on average, May is the wettest month out of the year in Indianapolis.

Teleconnections are aligned in a manner to drive rather widespread and persistent cooler than normal anomalies across the eastern portion of the country through the better part of the 1st half of May. Note the positive PNA and negative EPO and associated upper air pattern.

A persistent eastern trough will deliver an extended period of below normal temperatures through the first couple weeks of the month.

As chilly Canadian high pressure builds south behind departing cold fronts, we’ll have to remain on guard for the threat of late season frost/ freeze conditions lingering into the middle of the month.

To no surprise, the cool Canadian air will be much drier than a “typical” May pattern that can occasionally tap into the Gulf of Mexico. Accordingly, the pattern should run drier than normal through the 1st half of the month.

While we’re confident on the cool, dry (relative to average) theme carrying the day through the 1st half, there will likely be a snap back in the pattern that will promote at least the threat of a “sudden summer” regime during the latter part of the month. Timing this adjustment will be a bit challenging, but we believe that’s on the table at some point late week 3 or week 4. Accordingly, we’re building our May Outlook to feature this warmer (to hotter) potential late month or else it would be even cooler across the East- overall.

We’ll, obviously, also have to keep close tabs on the MJO throughout the middle and latter part of the month for influences on the pattern.

Without further ado, here’s our May 2020 Outlook…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/30/may-2020-outlook-from-one-extreme-to-the-other/

VIDEO: Unsettled Weather Gives Way To A Gorgeous Open To The Weekend; Cool 1st Half Of May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/29/video-unsettled-weather-gives-way-to-a-gorgeous-open-to-the-weekend-cool-1st-half-of-may/

VIDEO: Damp Midweek; Late Season Frost/ Freeze Threat Alive And Kicking Into Mid-May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/28/video-damp-midweek-late-season-frost-freeze-threat-alive-and-kicking-into-mid-may/

VIDEO: Tuesday Night Storms; Chilly Air Reinforces Itself After Briefly Milder Period…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/video-tuesday-night-storms-chilly-air-reinforces-itself-after-briefly-milder-period/

Week-Ahead Outlook; Additional Early-May Chatter…

We may only have a few days left in April, but widespread frost is being reported across north-central into east-central Indiana (yet again) with most across the region in the lower to middle 30s this morning.

Sunshine will dominate to start our Monday before mid and high level clouds increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Eventually these clouds will produce scattered showers by evening (targeting a 6p-7p arrival into central Indiana).

Initially these showers should be very light and scattered in nature, but heavier rain and embedded thunder will develop during the overnight hours.

Showers and embedded thunder will exit Tuesday morning and most of the day will be rain-free, including a return of sunshine. This will help boost high temperatures into the lower 70s Tuesday! Unfortunately, an approaching cold front will lead to a return of storms Tuesday evening and much cooler air by midweek. A few of the storms could reach strong to severe status Tuesday night with the primary concern being damaging wind and large hail.

Showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday night. A few of these may be strong to severe.

The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday followed by a cut off upper low “wobbling” around the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to windy, showery, and much cooler conditions for midweek. In fact, temperatures Thursday will likely fall into the 40s during the daytime.

By the time all is said and done, we think most central Indiana communities can expect between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain, but there will be some locally heavier amounts in excess of 2″.

Major improvements are ahead as we get set to close the work week. High pressure will briefly build into the area, supplying plentiful sunshine and warmer conditions Friday.

The warmth will persist into the weekend and this morning’s video update dives into the longer range.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/week-ahead-outlook-additional-early-may-chatter/

VIDEO: Busy Week Ahead; Discussing The Drivers Behind What Should Be An Overall Chilly 1st Half Of May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/26/video-busy-week-ahead-discussing-the-drivers-behind-what-should-be-an-overall-chilly-1st-half-of-may/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Potent area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River, spreading rain across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, including higher elevation wet snow.

II. A surface low and associated cold front will sweep into Plains Tuesday and to the eastern seaboard by Thursday. This system will have to be monitored for not only the potentially of locally heavy rain, but the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms on the journey southeast.

Wettest anomalies will extend from the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast over the upcoming 7-days. Widespread dry conditions can be expected across the central Plains into the Rockies.
Immediate central-Indiana can expect 2″ to 2.5″ of rain between now and next Saturday morning, with locally heavier amounts.
Summer-like heat will bake the West while the eastern 1/3 of the country remains cooler than normal.
We will have to keep close tabs on the midweek cold front as it may ignite strong to severe storms from the Plains to the East Coast in the Tuesday-Thursday time period. The SPC is already highlighting a Day 4 (Tuesday) risk.

Forecast Period: 04.25.20 through 05.02.20

Central Indiana and the Ohio Valley, as a whole, will have to deal with both storm systems highlighted above. While we still believe dry conditions will prevail through a good portion of our Saturday, rain will become more widespread this evening into Sunday morning in response to a surface low moving northeast along the Ohio River. A couple heavier bands of rain may develop across the region tonight into Sunday morning and by the time all is said and done, the southern half of the state (along and south of the I-70 corridor) can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain by Sunday afternoon. Further north, amounts between 0.25″ and 0.50″ will be more common. Drier air will build in late Sunday afternoon, along with a cooler northeasterly and northerly flow behind our departing storm system.

Monday morning will open dry, but a weak weather maker will scoot through the state during the afternoon, resulting in scattered showers making a return Monday PM. These will be quick-moving showers and rainfall totals are expected to remain light for those that do see rain.

A much more organized storm system will push southeast Tuesday evening and Wednesday leading to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. Stronger storms and locally heavy rain will be a good bet with this particular system. Drier, cooler air returns behind this system as we get set to wrap up the work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-4/

Evening Video Update: Timing Out Weekend Rain And Looking Ahead To A Chilly Open To May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/24/evening-video-update-timing-out-weekend-rain-and-looking-ahead-to-a-chilly-open-to-may/

Looking Ahead Into May: Extended Cooler Than Normal Regime; What About Precipitation?

The 2 big teleconnections (at least that we lean heavily on this time of year) both favor our cooler than normal regime lasting into the early to middle part of May. That’s not to say, there won’t be periods of warmth getting into the region ahead of cold fronts, just that in the overall sense, temperatures should continue to run below normal into the 1st half of May.

We can thank the positive PNA and negative NAO.

After data aligned in handling the MJO movement into early May, disagreement has returned, and we’ll need to keep a close eye on this. Hopefully, by the time we release our official May Outlook (next week), agreement will return.

If, indeed, we do get things into Phase 4 (such as the GEFS shows), a warmer pattern should emerge towards the end of the 1st week of the month. Again, we’ll monitor these trends closely.

The latest European Weeklies remain cool into mid-May.

Apr 23-30
May 1-7
May 8-14

After the recent dry stretch through the majority of the month, the pattern should transition towards a more active/ wetter than normal time of things over the next 2-3 weeks.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/24/looking-ahead-into-may-extended-cooler-than-normal-regime-what-about-precipitation/

Detailing 2 Late-Week Systems; Looking Into Early-May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/23/detailing-2-late-week-systems-looking-into-early-may/

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