March 2019 archive

Morning Video Update On The Damaging Wind Threat; Severe Potential Thursday…

Thursday is shaping up to be a significant weather day across the state. Multi-threat severe potential and damaging wind event both on the table…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/13/morning-video-update-on-the-damaging-wind-threat-severe-potential-thursday/

VIDEO: Concern Is Increasing For The Potential Of Severe Weather Thursday; Strong Wind Event On Deck…

Concern is growing for the potential of severe weather Thursday. A strong and potentially damaging wind event is still on the table Wednesday night through Thursday, as well…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/12/video-concern-is-increasing-for-the-potential-of-severe-weather-thursday-strong-wind-event-on-deck/

VIDEO: Closer Look At The Strong Wind (And Storm) Potential; More On The Late March-April Pattern…

Strong winds and the potential of strong storms loom Thursday. We look in more detail at these threats and ahead to the pattern for late March and into April…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/12/video-closer-look-at-the-strong-wind-and-storm-potential-more-on-the-late-march-april-pattern/

Long Range Update And Summer Preview…

One more unseasonably chilly spell awaits late-March (behind our mid-March spring “tease”), but we continue to believe an unseasonably warm stretch of weather gets going by the last few days of the month- continuing into April. Furthermore, meteorological spring overall continues to look warm, relative to average, for central Indiana. In the event you missed our Spring Outlook earlier, it can be found here.

However, what follows the late-March set-back is a more significant and sustained push of unseasonably warm conditions.

Note the positive PNA that will help drive the chilly pattern next week returns to neutral as we put a wrap on the month:

To no surprise, modeling is painting a vastly different look as we close March and open April.

We turn cooler next week with the positive PNA in control, but this won’t last…

Note the significant change aloft (and at the surface) as we close the month and get set to head into April…

Longer term, modeling continues to give us an actual spring this year. We continue to expect average to slightly above average temperatures in April, complete with slightly above normal precipitation (with a “ramp up” in severe chances, locally).

Modeling is following suit with that idea:

It should also be noted that while not shown, the new European Weeklies in this evening also support the warmer than normal April idea.

As we look forward, we continue to research and build our summer outlook. Early indications would suggest that we transition out of an overall warmer than average spring towards a seasonal, to slightly below average, time of things this summer, complete with above normal precipitation. We, obviously, still have some time to go before the final product is ready to be published, but stay tuned. We are planning to launch our official summer outlook in early May.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/11/long-range-update-and-summer-preview/

VIDEO: High Winds And Storms Arrive Thursday; Thoughts Turn To April…

High winds and storms arrive Thursday. We also look ahead towards late-March and April…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/11/video-high-winds-and-storms-arrive-thursday-thoughts-turn-to-april/

Potential Damaging Wind Event On The Table Thursday…

After a cold open to March, a taste of spring will develop this week as temperatures go into the 50s Tuesday, 60s Wednesday, and 70s (not a typo) for the first time this year on Thursday. Unfortunately, this spring preview will be joined by a strong and potentially damaging wind event Thursday.

A combination of ingredients has us particularly concerned in advance of this event:

  • A well mixed airmass
  • Lapse rates exceeding 8 deg or higher C/Km- enabling easier access to the high winds aloft (you can read more about this here if curious)
  • Dry slot after Wednesday showers and Thursday evening rain

Accordingly, the potential of 60 MPH + gusts are possible Thursday and we’d expect the National Weather Service to eventually have to issue high wind products as we get closer. These are the type gusts that will lead to downed trees and scattered power outages.

Already, modeling is producing ominous signals for very high and potentially damaging gusts out of the southwest Thursday. Stay tuned, friends.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/11/potential-damaging-wind-event-on-the-table-thursday/

VIDEO: Weekly Outlook; More Around The Late March Pattern…

Looking at the week ahead and the pattern as we move through the latter portion of March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/10/video-weekly-outlook-more-around-the-late-march-pattern/

Rain And Embedded Thunder Increases This Afternoon; Strong Wind Event Tonight…

Our quiet Saturday will transition to a rather “bumpy” time of things by the afternoon into tonight as a storm system moves through. Showers and embedded thunder off to our southwest this morning will rumble across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.

Radar update at 11:15a

Forecast radar products show widespread showers and embedded thunder through the afternoon hours into the evening. Coverage of rain will be greatest between 2p and 6p. Some locally heavy downpours are possible. While severe weather isn’t expected across central Indiana, a few strong to severe storms, capable of damaging straight line winds, will be possible across southern parts of the state. Storm total rainfall amounts of 0.75″ to 1.25″ will be common across the region.

Attention will then shift to strong and gusty winds this evening into tonight. Gusts of 50-55 MPH will be common across central Indiana during this timeframe. Unfortunately, downed trees and potential for power outages will be on the increase tonight.

Winds will remain gusty into Sunday morning, but begin to diminish through the day.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/09/rain-and-embedded-thunder-increases-this-afternoon-strong-wind-event-tonight/

VIDEO: Storms Rumble In This Afternoon; Looking Ahead To The Remainder Of March…

A wet and stormy time of things will develop this afternoon, followed by increasingly gusty winds tonight and early Sunday. Winds will gust in excess of 50 MPH at times…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/09/video-storms-rumble-in-this-afternoon-looking-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-march/

Friday Morning Video Update: Unsettled And Windy Weekend On Deck…

The weekend will feature showers and thunderstorms along with strong and gusty winds (in excess of 50 MPH at times Saturday evening-night)…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/08/friday-morning-video-update-unsettled-and-windy-weekend-on-deck/

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