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January 2019 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/25/cold-and-snowy-weekend-dangerously-cold-by-early-next-week/
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Jan 24
Long Range: Cold Pattern Isn’t Going Anywhere Fast…
We’ll save our short-term discussions for the severe and high-impact arctic outbreak on deck and focus our attention in this post to the upcoming several weeks. In short, we don’t expect the cold pattern to break anytime soon. Could there be a day or two of “relaxation?” Yes, but from an overall perspective, confidence is higher than normal on the colder than average pattern continuing through the month of February.
Let’s dig in to the teleconnections:
EPO
AO
NAO
PNA
Given the teleconnections in agreement pointing towards a cold pattern, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the majority of data is also on the cold train as we flip the page into February:
CFSv2 Weeklies
Weeks 1 & 2
Weeks 3 & 4
JMA Weekly
GEFS
While we aren’t licensed to show the European Weeklies, the new update runs with a cold pattern into early March. This falls in line with the overall consensus of longer range data, backed up by teleconnections.
Though not nearly at the amplitude of a few weeks ago, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move through Phases 5 and 6 in the coming weeks before going back into the “null” phase.
Phases 5 and 6 this time of year would suggest colder anomalies are more likely around our neck of the woods:
Given the above, we continue to think a colder than average “2nd half” of winter looms for the region. We lean heavily on the NAO, EPO, and AO state(s) this time of year and all would point towards a cold time of things moving forward, overall. The latest European Weeklies are interesting from a couple of fronts- initially very cold and then progressively stormy. The idea here is that we remain quite wintry through February and into early March before this pattern breaks. While we may not see a “repeat” visit of the Vortex, it wouldn’t surprise us to see another major arctic outbreak again this winter (after next week), but that likely comes later, and towards the end of the game before we snap into spring.
Buckle up; we think we have a long way to go this winter…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/24/long-range-cold-pattern-isnt-going-anywhere-fast/
Jan 24
Active Pattern; Severe Cold Looms Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/24/active-pattern-severe-cold-looms-next-week/
Jan 23
Multiple Snow Makers; Pattern Threatens Severe Cold Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/23/multiple-snow-makers-pattern-threatens-severe-cold-next-week/
Jan 23
6-10 Day Outlook: Significant Winter Event Looms…
The 6-10 day period will likely be dominated by an air mass of arctic origin, and the potential is present for the period to begin with a rather significant winter event. Models have occasionally “teased” the idea of dropping the PV (Polar Vortex) over the Great Lakes during this period, and that’s not something that’s off the table given the pattern here. Suffice it to say, we expect this period to run much colder than average.
While there will be some specifics we’ll have to sort through as time gets closer, this is remarkable model agreement when looking at the GFS and European ensemble sets in the medium term.
We’ve been discussing the opportunity where we see the flow slow enough to allow one or two of these clipper systems in the medium to longer range to deepen into a stronger storm system. That may be the case late weekend into early parts of next week and it’s something we’re keeping a close eye on. In addition to measurable snow, the potential is on the table for notable cold in the 6-10 day period, including multiple days below zero. In the extreme, this is the type pattern that could lead to double digit below zero cold across central Indiana- not including the wind chill.
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/23/6-10-day-outlook-significant-winter-event-looms/
Jan 22
Cold Pattern With Multiple Opportunities For Snow On The Horizon…
It may be briefly milder now, but we’re locked into an overall cold pattern for the foreseeable future. There are multiple opportunities for snow to go along with the cold,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/22/cold-pattern-with-multiple-opportunities-for-snow-on-the-horizon/
Jan 22
Briefly Milder Ahead Of Next Cold Stretch; Late Week Snow Makers…
After a cold stretch (8 of the past 12 days have been below average here across central Indiana), we’ll be on the milder side of a storm for a change tonight into Wednesday.
This will not only lead to a briefly milder period (and by brief, we mean BRIEF) late tonight into early Wednesday, but will also deliver a round of rain. While we’ll rise into the 30s later this evening, temperatures will continue to rise during the overnight- potentially into the lower 40s ahead of the cold front. Drizzle (perhaps freezing drizzle at the onset) will move in later this evening, but the heavier rain will hold off until after midnight. Periods of moderate rain can be expected between 2a and 8a Wednesday.
Widespread 0.50″ to 0.75″ can be expected across central Indiana.
The cold front will sweep through the state during the day Wednesday and temperatures will begin to fall once again Wednesday afternoon. A brief period of light snow is possible as the precipitation shield departs Wednesday afternoon, but this isn’t expected to be a big deal. We should be back below freezing around 5p to 6p Wednesday.
From there, the pattern will remain active and quite wintry. We’re tracking (3) individual pieces of upper level energy that will likely be enough to generate at least light snow into the weekend. The initial disturbance is associated with an arctic front that will blow through town Thursday evening. These are notorious for igniting snow showers and heavier “bursts.” You’ll certainly notice an increasingly bitter feel Thursday PM.
A couple additional disturbances are likely ahead of a reinforcing plunge of arctic air early next week. The system Saturday evening into early Sunday looks strongest at this time and will be capable of depositing a more widespread light accumulating snow across the region.
Yet another arctic intrusion is set to invade before we put a wrap on January. This will likely also be accompanied by additional opportunities of accumulating snow early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/22/briefly-milder-ahead-of-next-cold-stretch-late-week-snow-makers/
Jan 21
Bitter Cold Today Gives Way To Rain Tuesday Evening; Wintry Close To The Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/21/bitter-cold-today-gives-way-to-rain-tuesday-evening-wintry-close-to-the-week/
Jan 20
Thank You And Looking Ahead To Another Busy Week Of Winter Weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/20/thank-you-and-looking-ahead-to-another-busy-week-of-winter-weather/