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October 2018 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/31/happy-halloween-active-pattern-continues-as-we-move-into-november/
Oct 29
Unsettled Pattern Continues…
Wet weather will return Halloween, but we still believe the more concentrated rain will be “shoved” to our southeast as trick-or-treating begins in earnest across most central Indiana neighborhoods. Unfortunately,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/29/unsettled-pattern-continues/
Oct 28
Looking At The Week Ahead: Strong Winds This Afternoon And A Wet Pattern Is On Deck…
I. Showers followed by wind: A fast moving storm system will sweep through the Ohio Valley as we close the weekend. Showers will accompany the leading edge of this storm system (this morning), followed by strong and gusty winds (even stronger than this morning) this afternoon and evening. In some cases, winds will gust 45 to 50 MPH. Hunker down!
II. Wet Halloween: A cold front will approach the state Tuesday evening into our Halloween. Widespread rain is expected Wednesday, BUT the silver lining may be that the bulk of precipitation will be shoved to our southeast before most trick-or-treaters take to the streets.
III. Chilly Open To November: Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town behind the cold front and set the stage for an unseasonably chilly open to November. Generally, lows will fall into the middle 30s and highs will top out in the upper 40s for the first few days of the month.
IV. Raw Saturday: It’s a “rinse and repeat” scenario as next weekend opens raw and wet thanks to a new storm system moving through the region. Gusty showers and unseasonably cool temperatures can be expected Saturday. Note the possibility of wet snow to fall on the northern periphery of the storm system through IA, MN, and WI. (Signs of the times).
V. Wet Pattern: After a long stretch of dry weather through the balance of October, a big shift in the pattern is taking place now and will continue to promote well above normal rainfall as we move through the first couple weeks of November. In some cases, the upcoming (10) days alone may yield 3″ to 4″ of rain in some areas of the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/28/looking-at-the-week-ahead-strong-winds-this-afternoon-and-a-wet-pattern-is-on-deck/
Oct 27
Active Pattern Returns…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/27/active-pattern-returns/
Oct 26
Friday Evening Rambles: Wet Pattern Returns, But The Waters Are “Muddy” Concerning Temperatures…
It’s a new day, but unfortunately, there isn’t really any significant change with respect to the overall clarity of the first half of November- at least from a temperature perspective. On the other hand, we remain supremely confident on the return of a “busy” pattern from a precipitation stand point.
With the 12z update, the European ensemble data remains the colder solution when compared to its counterpart (GEFS) in the medium to long range period- or Days 10-15
With that said, data does agree on the more active and wetter than average pattern continuing (from now) through the period.
We’ll continue to look over the data this weekend to see if agreement can be reached on temperatures between the various modeling and update things accordingly. As things stand now, we still anticipate a “pull back” in the anomalous chill around the mid month time frame, but stay tuned. As the mean trough axis transitions into the central portion of the country, the more active storm track up through the Ohio Valley should continue.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/26/friday-evening-rambles-wet-pattern-returns-but-the-waters-are-muddy-concerning-temperatures/
Oct 24
Nice Autumn Day; Unsettled Weather Returns…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/24/nice-autumn-day-unsettled-weather-returns/
Oct 23
New Month; New Pattern (In Some Aspects) Around The Corner…
October got off to a warm start, but unseasonably chilly conditions have dominated over the past couple of weeks. In fact, we’re on a stretch of (12) consecutive days below average after the summer-like start. The other common theme? Dry, dry, dry. Officially, IND is running close to 1″ below average through the first few weeks of the month. Changes loom- at least to some extent.
We notice the ensemble data (both the European and GFS) is painting a more active, wetter regime as we move through early November. Given the upper air pattern, we would tend to agree.
European data, courtesy of Weathermodels.com, paints a much more active picture early November.
GFS data, courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com, shows the return of a wetter pattern for early November.
While confident on the return of wet conditions as we traverse the first week or two of November, data is struggling to get a handle on the PNA past the short-term. The PNA, or Pacific North American Pattern, teleconnection is one of our favorites this time of year to “key in” on the medium range pattern. While the NAO and AO get a lot of attention the deeper we get into the cold season, the PNA can be a tremendous tool during transition seasons. We note latest data is trending significantly more towards a positive PNA (compared to previous runs)- which is a colder signal.
To no surprise, data has trended chillier during today’s 12z update.
To close, bank on a return of the wet conditions as we move into the mighty month of November. From a temperature perspective, the forecast is much tougher for the first half of November. As things stand now, we continue to favor a relaxation of the anomalous chill overall, but can certainly see where “pops” of cold air can easily sweep in behind what should be an active storm track from the mid-south up into the Mid West and Ohio Valley. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/23/new-month-new-pattern-in-some-aspects-around-the-corner/
Oct 23
Better Rain Chances Return Over The Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/23/better-rain-chances-return-over-the-weekend/
Oct 21
Looking At The Week Ahead…
Quick video update from the road this evening on what the upcoming work week will deal central Indiana:
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/21/looking-at-the-week-ahead-3/
Oct 19
Chill Forecast To Dominate As We Close October & Open November…
When we look forward to the overall pattern as we wrap up October and open November, we see good general agreement between the GEFS and EPS in a “blocky” look, including an eastern trough. This is a stormy signal.
European ensemble: 500mb Days 10-15. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
GFS ensemble: 500mb Days 10-15. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com
There will be an attempt at a significant eastern storm around Halloween- give or take a few days. The specifics associated with this storm are difficult (at best) to pin point from this distance. When thinking ahead towards Halloween, keep the potential of wet conditions, strong winds, and chilly temperatures at the forefront. Stay tuned.
What’s much more clear is that the pattern will continue to promote a colder than average feel during the period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/19/chill-forecast-to-dominate-as-we-close-october-open-november/