High pressure will dominate our early week weather. With the exception of an isolated shower or thunderstorm across eastern portions of central Indiana this afternoon, most should remain rain-free through the daytime hours Tuesday.
A couple of showers may impact e-central parts of the state later this afternoon. Most will remain rain-free. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
High pressure will keep the majority of the region quiet to open the new week.
The pattern will begin to turn busy once again as we move into midweek. An approaching storm system will increase shower and thunderstorm chances late Tuesday night through Thursday. While it won’t rain the entire time, locally heavy downpours are expected at times during the midweek stretch.
Most of central Indiana can expect to pick up 0.75″ to 1.25″ of rain during the aforementioned period, but there will be locally heavier totals.
Looking towards next weekend, forecast models generally agree on active times continuing, but disagree on the important specifics. We’ll go with a “blend” right now and increase rain chances again Saturday and Sunday- after a briefly drier Friday. The ranges are anywhere from a flood threat, such as the European currently suggests, to typical scattered showers and thunderstorms, per the latest GFS. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune through the upcoming week.
This is all part of a continued active weather pattern that will likely produce above normal precipitation as we close out the month and look towards September…
Some of the storms across the northern third of the state may “pulse” to severe levels this evening, including the potential of large hail and damaging winds. (This complex will weaken as it surges south later tonight).
Eventually, drier times will return by mid-week. Beforehand, most central Indiana rain gauges should receive somewhere between 0.50″ to 1″ of rain. With a rich, tropical airmass in place, there will be some locally heavier totals.
That storm system will settle south and begin to impact central Indiana early next week with storm chances increasing Monday into Tuesday. With rich tropical moisture in place, locally heavy rain will be likely as the front moves in.
Models are in overall agreement of additional significant rainfall early next week (widespread 1″ to 2″).
