A warm front is draped across the state this evening. At the same time, surface low pressure is spinning across north-central MO with a trailing cold front entering IL. This evening, a warm and moist airmass continues to advect into central Indiana.
As we type this update, widely scattered thunderstorms are impacting areas from Lafayette to the northeast side of Indianapolis. A more organized complex of thunderstorms is firing to our southwest- from south-central IL to southeastern MO and into AR. This is ahead of the cold front.
Looking at forecast radar products, the majority of data brings a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through central parts of the state around 9p to 10p, continuing into the overnight and predawn hours.
9p forecast radar
11p forecast radar
2a forecast radar
5a forecast radar
With high precipitable water values in place (approaching 2″ through tonight), locally heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms through the night. We expect widespread additional rainfall tonight of 0.50″ to 1″ with locally heavier amounts. A few embedded strong to severe storms are also possible tonight with the primary concern being damaging straight line winds and large hail, but an isolated quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out. We suggest ensuring your weather radio is set with the ‘alert mode’ on tonight.
As we flip the page, a few scattered showers will remain in our forecast Tuesday PM before a much cooler and drier air mass invades Tuesday evening- continuing into Friday morning. Several central Indiana neighborhoods will dip into the 40s Thursday and Friday mornings.
2a forecast temperatures Thursday.
Enjoy the cooler air while you’ve got it, as a developing heat wave will engulf much of the region as we close the month and open September. Needless to say, despite the unofficial end to summer just around the corner, there’s still plenty of summer left in the tank. This is the type pattern that can produce an extended stretch of lows around 70° and highs around 90°.
Scattered thunderstorms will return as early as Monday afternoon, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Tuesday. While not a textbook set-up for widespread severe weather by any means, enough ingredients are in place to at least raise an eyebrow for a few severe storms ahead of the cold frontal passage. Don’t be surprised if the ‘marginal’ risk is upgraded to a ‘slight’ risk for Tuesday in future updates from the Storm Prediction Center.
Once the cold front moves through, a rather abrupt wind shift will drive a much drier and cooler air mass southeast and it’ll feel like early autumn around these parts as we progress through the second half of the work week. Not only will the significant drop in humidity be nice, but some outlying areas away from the city will likely fall into the 40s for overnight lows Thursday and Friday mornings. Highs will only top out in the mid to upper 70s.
Looking longer term, summer isn’t finished just yet. Ridging will return for the Labor Day weekend and support building warmth as we put a wrap on August and open September.
The early “baseline” of our ideas focuses on the likelihood of El Nino returning for the upcoming winter season. As we’ve stated many times in the past, each Nino event is different from one another and other ingredients (highlighted above) can play a significant role in ultimately determining the eventual outcome.
That sea surface temperature configuration in the northern Pacific argues for western Canada ridging and downstream troughiness such as the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS would imply.
In the more immediate term, after a dry Tuesday, rain will arrive on the scenes Wednesday afternoon.
As mentioned above, a couple of other storm systems promise for continued unsettled times over the weekend and on into early next week. When we total things up by the middle of next week, both the GFS and European model agree on widespread 3″ to 5″ totals.
