The past (10) days have been particularly pleasant across central Indiana, especially by late-July standards. 80% of the period has featured temperatures at, or below, normal, and the past couple of days have been impressively cool. Hat tip to Sean Ash (@SeanWTHR) for the most recent stat: “Just the 12th time in 147 years of back-to-back July days in Indianapolis with a high of 72° or below.” Rainfall has been plentiful across central Indiana, including widespread amounts of 1″ to 2″ with some reports of 3″ to 5″ over the past 48 hours.
After a warm open to the month, July has taken on a significantly cooler side as of late: Graphic courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center
As we rumble into August, you knew that summer feel had to return, right?! 🙂
Forecast models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will expand across the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period. This will deliver a return of warm-to-hot and muggy conditions to central Indiana- beginning this weekend into next week.
GEFS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
EPS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
While the next couple of days will continue the cooler than normal theme, temperatures will return to a “summery” feel over the weekend, continuing into next week. Along with the warmer air will also come increasing humidity. In short, we recommend incorporating a pool visit (or two) into your weekend schedule. Highs will return into the upper 80s to around 90° and overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70°. While warmer and certainly more humid than we’ve been, we still believe the hottest of the season is behind us (highs of 94° on July 4th and 14th).
Highs will top out a couple degrees either side of 90 this weekend. Graphic courtesy of weathermodels.com
While a more summer-like feel will replace the unseasonably cool close to the month and open to August, it sure looks like the hotter regime will be transitional. The general consensus from data points towards a return of seasonable to below average temperatures along with a continuation of active times as mid-month approaches…
Rain and embedded thunder will likely be rather widespread early Monday, especially across the southern half of the state.
Data continues to point towards the greatest coverage of rainfall arriving Monday night and Tuesday. We still expect a widespread 1″ to 2″ rain for central Indiana before things begin to wind down mid to late week. There will be locally heavier totals.
The model has support of a return to wetter times as noted from the latest JMA Weeklies, CFSv2, and European ensemble.
While the cool will relax as we rumble past the first couple days of the month (we’re in the “dog days” after all), I still think the worst of the heat is over for the summer and the headline for August will likely be a situation where we begin to make up for lost time in the precipitation department. That upper ridge centered to our west in the means will likely result in a continuation of rather active times from a precipitation perspective through the month and our idea is that we finish August with above normal precipitation across central Indiana for the first time since April…
Changes begin to take place as we move into the second half of the weekend as a storm system organizes to our west. I still think most of the day will be rain-free, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness and will mention the potential of a scattered, light shower.
This is only an “appetizer” to the main course which will arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday continues to look like a wash out across the region with the potential of locally heavy rain, as well. The culprit? A surface area of low pressure and associated front that will move through the state.
In addition to the expected Tuesday soaker, unseasonably cool temperatures will remain. In fact, most of the day on Tuesday should be spent in the 60s…