Looking Over The New JMA Weeklies…

The JMA Weeklies update every Thursday morning and this gives us another tool to look at when developing the forecast over the upcoming 3-4 weeks.  Here are some highlights from the most recent update:

Week 1

The big story in Week 1 is the surge of tropical moisture with the area of disturbed weather in the GOM (Gulf of Mexico).  Unfortunately, it’s not until possibly Week 2 that remnant tropical moisture may interact with an approaching cold front to provide better rain chances here.  The big story for the balance of the upcoming Week 1 period, locally, will be the heat.  An unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the Memorial Day weekend and on into the middle of next week.

Week 2

The model shows a bit of a transition in the pattern with the core of the heat shifting west during the Week 2 period.  With this, there are some hints that the pattern will turn increasingly wet and stormy, locally, including a backing off of the extreme 90° heat.

Weeks 3-4

An intriguing “ring of fire” pattern develops in the Weeks 3-4 time frame.  If correct, this would result in a more active pattern across the Mid West with a busy northwest flow pattern emerging.  Storm complexes are notorious for tracking in a northwest to southeast fashion around the hot dome.  Sure enough, the model is going with a wetter than normal pattern here.  It’s hard to disagree with that given the look at 500mb.

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