May 24, 2018 archive

Looking Over The New JMA Weeklies…

The JMA Weeklies update every Thursday morning and this gives us another tool to look at when developing the forecast over the upcoming 3-4 weeks.  Here are some highlights from the most recent update:

Week 1

The big story in Week 1 is the surge of tropical moisture with the area of disturbed weather in the GOM (Gulf of Mexico).  Unfortunately, it’s not until possibly Week 2 that remnant tropical moisture may interact with an approaching cold front to provide better rain chances here.  The big story for the balance of the upcoming Week 1 period, locally, will be the heat.  An unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the Memorial Day weekend and on into the middle of next week.

Week 2

The model shows a bit of a transition in the pattern with the core of the heat shifting west during the Week 2 period.  With this, there are some hints that the pattern will turn increasingly wet and stormy, locally, including a backing off of the extreme 90° heat.

Weeks 3-4

An intriguing “ring of fire” pattern develops in the Weeks 3-4 time frame.  If correct, this would result in a more active pattern across the Mid West with a busy northwest flow pattern emerging.  Storm complexes are notorious for tracking in a northwest to southeast fashion around the hot dome.  Sure enough, the model is going with a wetter than normal pattern here.  It’s hard to disagree with that given the look at 500mb.

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