January 2018 archive

Jan 11

Ice Transitions To A Double Shot Of Snow; Frigid Times Return…

Highlights:

  • Bye-bye thaw
  • Ice to snow Friday
  • Second snow maker Sunday night

Active Forecast Period…A breezy southerly flow will dominate our weather today ahead of an approaching cold front.  Showers and unseasonably mild conditions can be expected today.  (Despite the snow lover in me, I will admit that it’s been mighty nice being able to jog outside without worrying about slipping on ice or snow the past couple days).

Things begin to change in rather dramatic fashion tonight as the cold front presses through the state and allows much colder air to “ooze” back into central Indiana.  At the same time, a wave of energy will track northeast along the cold front and help spread more widespread moisture into the colder air at the surface.  We expect rain to begin mixing with and changing to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain after midnight across western and central portions of the state, and closer to 5a-6a across eastern Indiana.  Eventually, as the entire column of air cools, icy precipitation will transition to snow.  If the sleet to snow transition occurs faster, snowfall totals will be at the higher end of the first call numbers outlined below.  Should sleet hold on for a longer period of time, snowfall amounts will be on the lower end of forecast totals.  We think snow will end around noon west of the city, but steady snow will hang on much longer across eastern sections of the viewing area- well into the evening hours.

Here’s our first call snowfall forecast for Friday.  While this doesn’t include freezing rain amounts, we think a glaze up to 0.10″ is a good bet – especially on elevated and exposed surfaces.

Dry conditions will return Saturday along with a much colder feel.  Quiet times won’t last long as another snow system will quickly begin to impact the state Sunday evening into Monday.  Widespread steady snow is expected to develop and will actually be a more uniform, bigger, event for most of the viewing area.  We’ll add in wind and arctic air which will lead to blowing and drifting issues as the day progresses Monday into Tuesday.  Here’s our first call for additional snow amounts Sunday evening-Monday.

The forecast period will wrap up dry and bitterly cold.  With a fresh snowpack down, it’s safe to say we’ll add at least another night to the sub-zero “club!”

Stay tuned, friends!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ to 0.75″

*Please note the 7-day precipitation forecast outlined above is for Indianapolis proper.  

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/11/ice-transitions-to-a-double-shot-of-snow-frigid-times-return/

Jan 10

VIDEO: Brief Thaw Gives Way To A Wintry Close To The Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/10/video-brief-thaw-gives-way-to-a-wintry-close-to-the-week/

Jan 09

Brief Thaw; Severe Winter Event Looms For A Portion Of The Region…

Highlights:

  • Fog and drizzle
  • Major winter storm looms
  • Frigid air returns

Brief Thaw; Major Winter Storm On Deck…The short-term will be dominated by low clouds and areas of fog, along with patchy drizzle.  Areas of freezing fog and drizzle are possible early Wednesday morning before conditions “warm” in earnest through the afternoon and evening.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday with showers and gusty southerly winds.  This southerly air flow will deliver a briefly milder time of things during the day Thursday before the cold front settles south Thursday night.  As this transpires, surface low pressure will organize along the southern end of the boundary before tracking northeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.

We continue to favor a track up west of the spine of the Appalachians and note some of the more progressive data is beginning to correct west to align closer with the other guidance that’s been spitting out big snow numbers over the past few days.  Before we discuss snow, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will fall across the region late Thursday night into early Friday.  We expect precipitation to transition to all snow Friday afternoon, continuing into Saturday.  At times, heavy snow is likely.

While we aren’t ready to lay out an accumulation map just yet, the heaviest snow axis will likely include 8″ to 12″+ amounts somewhere through central portions of the state.  We’ll aim to provide a first call snowfall map this time tomorrow.  Furthermore, there will also be a wind component to this storm.  What’ll initially be a wet, heavy snow will turn more “powdery” in nature as arctic air gets pulled into the storm.  That powder will get blown and drifted about Friday night and Saturday and travel will be significantly impacted.

Frigid conditions will return over the weekend before another accumulating snow pushes into town Monday.  Behind this snow maker, a brutal push of sub-zero air is likely next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 6″+
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/09/brief-thaw-severe-winter-event-looms-for-a-portion-of-the-region/

Jan 09

Gloomy Stretch; Ohio Valley Winter Storm Brewing…

Highlights:

  • Foggy days
  • Late week winter storm
  • Much colder air returns

Low Beam Weather…Widespread low clouds, fog, and areas of drizzle will impact the region as we progress through the next couple days.  If venturing out early this morning, be extra careful as sub-freezing temperatures combined with the moisture has created slick spots- particularly on side streets and sidewalks.

A southerly flow will take control briefly Wednesday evening into Thursday and help lead to a quick “thaw,” along with more widespread rain showers Thursday.  This is in association with a cold front that will sink south through the state Thursday night into Friday morning.  As this is taking place, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the tail end of the cold front and track northeast.  That low will spread moisture back into what will be an airmass turning much colder Friday into Saturday.  The end result will be a potentially significant event of an icy mix (sleet and freezing rain) transitioning to snow Friday into Saturday.  Much colder air will pour in here over the weekend and additional upper energy will result in widespread snow early next week.

If you have travel plans Friday into Saturday, please keep abreast of the latest forecast.  A significant event looms, but we’re still a couple of days from being able to put the heaviest snow zone in “concrete.”

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/09/gloomy-stretch-ohio-valley-winter-storm-brewing/

Jan 08

Confidence Growing In Potential Major Winter Storm…

Confidence continues to grow in the prospects of a major winter storm impacting the Mid West and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.  A cold front will slip through central Indiana Thursday night, allowing colder air to push back into the state.  At the same time, surface low pressure should begin to organize along the tail end of the frontal boundary across the Ark-la-tex region.  As we progress through the day Friday, cold air will continue to penetrate south into the Ohio Valley while the surface low lifts northeast into the region.  While we can argue about the specific track (this is still a few days out, after all), the pattern supports a central Ohio Valley track as we progress through the day Friday into Saturday.

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Friday

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Saturday

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Sunday

We caution not to get too worked up over individual operational output (including those “spectacular” runs) as run-to-run variance is likely over the next few days.  That said, when we have support from overall pattern techniques that have supported a significant interior event for late this week since last week, along with ensemble agreement, it does lead to greater than normal confidence.  If you have travel plans late this week/ weekend, we suggest keeping a very close eye on the forecast.  This will be a high impact event for portions of the Ohio Valley.

While it’s impossible to say precisely where the heaviest swath of snow is laid down in this situation from a few days out, this is a storm that should carry a swath of 6″ to 12″+ snow just to the northwest of the track.  Additionally, an initial period of an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is also possible.  Finally, as the storm wraps up over the Ohio Valley Saturday, a strengthening wind will lead to potential severe blowing and drifting issues.  Fresh arctic air will flow into the region Saturday night into Sunday that will return sub-zero wind chills to the area.

Bottom line, stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/08/confidence-growing-in-potential-major-winter-storm/

Jan 08

Brief Thaw; Late Week Winter Storm Brewing?

Highlights:

  • Brief midweek thaw
  • Late week winter storm threat
  • Much colder air returns

Take It Slow This Morning…An overnight mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow has created a few slick spots, but widespread travel issues haven’t been reported this morning.  Thankfully, even a 1° to 2° difference (milder) in surface temperatures overnight helped us out in that regard.  The wintry mix is heading out and we should even see a little sunshine later today.

As temperatures settle back below freezing tonight, concern is present for the possibility of freezing fog and freezing drizzle in spots into Tuesday morning.  A warm front will then lift north through the state Wednesday helping our brief midweek “thaw” get underway in earnest.  Showers will accompany the milder conditions into Thursday.

A cold front will settle south through the state Thursday night and colder air will press southeast.  At the same time, a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the tail end of the front and lift northeast into the Ohio Valley Friday evening into early Saturday.  While this has the sure sign to be a significant, impactful winter storm, we’re obviously still a couple days away from being able to nail down precise track and strength.  Stay tuned and keep close tabs on that Friday-Saturday forecast.  We’ll turn much colder once again over the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ to 4″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/08/brief-thaw-late-week-winter-storm-brewing/

Jan 07

VIDEO: Icy, Snowy Night Ahead; Late Week Winter Storm?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/07/video-icy-snow-night-ahead-late-week-winter-storm/

Jan 07

Busy, Busy, Busy…

Highlights:

  • Messy wintry mix arrives tonight
  • Briefly milder midweek
  • Potential storm brewing Friday

Snow And Ice Arrive Tonight…Clouds will lower and thicken across the state as we progress through the day.  We’ll also note a stiff easterly breeze as an approaching storm system inches ever so much closer.  This storm system will spread a wintry mix through the state tonight into early Monday morning.  Initially, we think most of central Indiana will deal with snow before a transition to freezing rain during the overnight, continuing into Monday morning.  Before the transition, 1″ to 2″ of snow seems to be the best idea before an icy glaze develops atop the freshly fallen snow.  Based on the expected transition to freezing rain, there’s an opportunity for up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain.  That said, we’ll have to keep a very close eye on temperature profiles this evening as even the difference of a couple of degrees aloft can make all the difference in a faster or slower transition to freezing rain.  Expect the Monday morning commute to be heavily impacted.

Colder air will push back in here Monday evening into Tuesday with considerable cloudiness remaining.  A milder southerly flow will overtake the region Wednesday into Thursday.  Low clouds and fog along with drizzle will develop Wednesday and we may have to deal with a touch of freezing drizzle early in the day before temperatures rise.  A spike in temperatures will take place Thursday, briefly sending central Indiana into the 50s before a cold front slides through the state Thursday evening.

An area of low pressure will develop along the southern end of the frontal boundary and lift northeast into the TN Valley and eastern Ohio Valley Friday.  As colder air presses into the region, precipitation will change from a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain to all snow through the day Friday.  It’s far too early to get specifics around accumulation ideas, but this storm has potential to be significant.  Much colder air will whip in here next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ – 4″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/07/busy-busy-busy/

Jan 06

Frigid Saturday Gives Way To A Messy Sunday Evening…

Highlights:

  • Bitter cold eases
  • Mix of snow and ice
  • Milder midweek

Bitter Today; Wintry Mix By Sunday Evening…Most central Indiana reporting sites are checking in this morning between 6° and 10° below zero, but we note a couple of spots are even colder.  Arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather today, leading to sunny and bitter conditions.

An approaching storm system Sunday will help increase our cloud cover through the morning and we expect snow to develop by evening.  As warmer air aloft works into the region, a transition to freezing rain is expected during the overnight into early Monday morning.  The morning commute looks very messy Monday.

Moderating temperatures will develop by midweek and as the milder air moves over the cold surface, thick fog and areas of drizzle and light rain will develop Wednesday.  A cold front will sweep through the state Thursday with showers and we’re keeping close tabs on a secondary piece of energy that will lead to a wintry close to the work week for portions of the Ohio Valley.  In fact, a significant winter event should develop out of this pattern Friday into Saturday.  The early call for now is that this is east of our region, but stay tuned.  Snow showers will fly in the colder air to close the week regardless.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/06/frigid-saturday-gives-way-to-a-messy-sunday-evening/

Jan 05

VIDEO: Wintry Mess By Sunday Night; Don’t Put Us In The Winter’s Over Camp…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/05/video-wintry-mess-by-sunday-night-dont-put-us-in-the-winters-over-camp/

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