January 2018 archive

VIDEO: Cold, Snowy Pattern Evolving…

Just a quick video update this evening on what will be a much colder close to the week and a developing snowy pattern this weekend into next week… Much more…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/31/video-cold-snowy-pattern-evolving/

Bet On The Cold…

During wholesale pattern transitions, operational data will struggle at times, including some wild run-to-run swings.  Earlier this week, the European wanted to put early next week in the lower 50s.  At the same time, the GFS suggested lower single digits.  Precisely, it was a difference of 46° between the two models for a high?!  🙂

We note the teleconnections (in particular, the EPO) are aligning in a manner conducive for widespread cold.

The GEFS might be a bit quick on dropping the arctic hammer, but the consistency of the model is impressive.  Meanwhile, the European (even it’s ensemble data) has been much less consistent and has really been struggling the past couple of winters, overall, as a whole.

While we can argue as to just how cold it’ll get through the early part of February, the overwhelming message is that a prolonged colder than normal pattern will develop during this time period.

Let’s also keep in mind that the initial cold onslaught is coming in the face of the MJO still rumbling through the warm phases.  We note the European is consistently having to correct towards a more “amped up” MJO- swinging into the cold phases as we approach mid-month.  And it’s mid-February that continues to have us concerned for the potential of truly nasty, severe cold.

As for snow, it’ll come in this pattern.  Again, don’t get caught up in the operational output, but understand that the pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days favors numerous fast-moving snow systems.  While most of these will be light, we’ll have to keep a close eye on things as the potential exists for one of these waves to spin up a moderate event.

As we look ahead to Week 2, the potential is there for a more widespread significant phased interior threat prior to the dumping of the bitterly cold air for mid-month.

As it is, both the GEFS and EPS “mean” paint a bullish signal for piling snow up over the next couple weeks…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/30/bet-on-the-cold/

VIDEO: See Ya’ Later January Thaw…

Here’s an update on the next couple of weeks. PS: Bo (bottom left in the video towards the beginning ;-)) is our 3rd and youngest Goldendoodle; he was (obviously) trying…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/29/video-see-ya-later-january-thaw/

Colder Times Return; Fast-Moving Pattern…

Upper level energy along with a bit of lake effect enhancement will lead to scattered snow showers late morning through the afternoon and into the early evening. We also note high resolution data picking up on a thin lake effect snow band rotating into the northern ‘burbs after the evening rush.

Cold high pressure will settle overhead Tuesday and Wednesday and supply a return of dry times, complete with sunshine.  We’ll turn breezy in advance of our next storm system Wednesday.

That next system will come in the form of a cold front that will settle south across the state Thursday.  Light rain will overspread the region early in the day before mixing with and ending as light snow.  This still doesn’t appear to be a significant event for our region at this time.

What may be a bigger deal is the event that looms this weekend.  Clouds will increase during the day Saturday and a light mix of rain and snow should develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning before colder air wins out changing all precipitation over to snow.

We’re getting into a pattern where the northern stream of the jet will dominate over the next 7-10 days (at least). Models will likely struggle handling individual systems and we’ll have to remain on our toes for the potential of last minute shifts with systems in such a pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/29/colder-times-return-fast-moving-pattern/

Transition Begins Back To A Prolonged, Sustained Wintry Pattern…

The January “thaw” has taken hold the past 7-10 days.

Despite the milder air over the past week, January, as a whole, is still running 4° below average at Indianapolis- a byproduct of just how frigid the first half of the month was.

While the January thaw has been nice, times are changing and winter sure seems to be reloading for a very active second half.

Initially, we think it’s the storminess that will be most impressive as a “fight” develops between resistance from southern ridging and a new mean trough pushing southeast.  The end result should be multiple snow and ice makers from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and northeast over the upcoming couple of weeks.

Once we get a snowpack laid down, arctic highs oozing southeast will likely lead to bitterly cold air.  Recall our expectation for this pattern to yield at least (1) night of double-digit below zero lows, but it’s more towards mid-month that we think the severe cold takes hold.

Teleconnections are lining up and in overall agreement of cold, wintry times returning.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to rotate into the colder phase 8 as we rumble from early to mid February.  Given the amplitude of the MJO, it should continue to rumble right through the cold phases of 1,2, and 3.

All of these moving pieces that lead up to extended periods of cold, wintry conditions are part of a bigger outcome low solar, easterly QBO winters deal up.  What we should experience with this setup is a 6-7 week period of wintry conditions, including times of severe cold.  It appears to be a snowier version of what we went through late-December through mid-January.  Hang in there, spring will come…eventually.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/28/transition-begins-back-to-a-prolonged-sustained-wintry-pattern/

VIDEO: Wet Times End This Afternoon; Snow Chances Return Monday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/27/video-wet-times-end-this-afternoon-snow-chances-return-monday/

Potential On The Table For A Spectacular Period Of Winter Weather…

Right out of the gate, our expectation is that the period Feb. 1st through March 6th will provide a memorable period of winter weather across central Indiana.  Included in our thinking is that between 15″-20″ of snow falls at IND during the period and at least (1) night features lows between 10° and 15° below zero.

Before we get into a new period of wintry conditions, the region will enjoy an unseasonably pleasant stretch of weather, overall, over the upcoming week.  Temperatures will run much milder than average most days and precipitation events will remain relatively light and insignificant until we get to late next week.

While we’ll deal with light rain Saturday morning, light snow Monday with upper energy and a transient shot of cold air, the primary message through next Wednesday is that our weather pattern will be rather benign considering we’re in the “heart” of winter.  In fact, our current 7-day reflects (3) days of highs of 50°, or greater.  That’s impressive for late January, and you have our full permission to enjoy every minute of it!  🙂

As we transition into February, the ball begins rolling towards a new period of significant winter weather.  Initially, this will likely come in a “step down” fashion.  We forecast the initial jab of cold to arrive late next week and this will likely be accompanied by a period of rain switching over to a period of snow Thursday (accumulating snow is on the table with this event).  We note the GEFS sees the transition to cold as we enter the second month of the year.


A combination of ingredients will come together to initially lead to a very active/ stormy period for the first half of February.  Within this initial couple weeks of the month, we expect an expanding snowpack to encompass the Mid West and Ohio Valley region.  While we can’t get specific on any one particular storm more than two weeks out, confidence is higher than normal on the pattern putting down greater than average amounts of the white stuff.  Snow enthusiasts, locally, have to be “salivating” over the resistance put up from the eastern ridge and the resurgent cold pressing into the Plains and Midwest.  A busy interior storm track seems like a good bet.

It’s as we get into mid-February where we think significant, bitter cold will take the headline.  It’s a “feedback” of sorts between getting the snowpack laid down first and then having the MJO swing through the phases that favor late-winter arctic intrusions into the eastern portion of the country.  Unlike the past couple of winters, plenty of cold is building- and waiting at the gate to be unleashed southeast over the next several weeks.

Finally, we also note the new European Weeklies remain bullish on a prolonged colder than average stretch of weather, accompanied by above normal precipitation, February into mid-March.  This is significant as run-to-run consistency has been noted and is backed up by long-term pattern techniques.

We’ll revisit our call of 15″-20″ Feb. 1 through March 6th, including at least one night of lows between 10°-15° below, on March 7th…  In the meantime, we’ll be here with blog updates and videos through the active upcoming several weeks ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/25/potential-on-the-table-for-a-spectacular-period-of-winter-weather/

VIDEO: Pleasant Close To The Work Week; Wintry Changes Loom Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/25/video-pleasant-close-to-the-work-week-wintry-changes-loom-next-week/

VIDEO: Milder Close To The Work Week; New Bitterly Cold Pattern Emerges As We Open February…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/24/video-milder-close-to-the-work-week-new-bitterly-cold-pattern-emerges-as-we-open-february/

Slow Going This Morning…

Freezing drizzle and areas of light snow will continue into the early afternoon hours before we finally begin to dry things out.

Temperatures are in the upper 20s for most central Indiana communities this morning and it’s not until we get into the early to mid afternoon hours when we anticipate temperatures to climb to around freezing.  As a result, slick conditions (especially side streets and back roads) can be expected into the afternoon and evening hours.

Overnight lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 20s so re-freezing and slick spots on area roadways can be expected into Thursday morning.

Thankfully, a southwesterly air flow and new warming trend will develop through the day Thursday, along with a return of sunshine!

Much more later today on the developing new cold pattern…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/24/slow-going-this-morning/

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