Highlights:
- Light showers later today
- Mostly quiet weather week awaits
- Much colder as Christmas nears
Sunday Showers…A weak weather system is approaching the state as we type this forecast update. That system will deliver light showers through the afternoon hours, but this won’t be a major weather event by any stretch of the imagination- more of a nuisance than anything.
Our next “event” will come Tuesday night in the form of a dry frontal passage. This will trend us cooler Wednesday, but still above seasonal norms. Quiet times will persist with sunshine through midweek, allowing last minute shoppers (no finger pointing here :-)) to at least not have any weather worries as they finish checking off the list!
A more significant cold front will approach as we close the work week. This will provide showers and gusty winds, followed by a colder feel late in the day.
Looking ahead towards Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, confidence continues to remain high on a much colder pattern taking hold. However, it’s purely speculative at this point whether we’ll be enjoying “white” for the big day. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″
As we’d expect, as these two fight it out, a battle will ensue across the central and eventually eastern portion of the country. The negative EPO is a widespread cold pattern, while a negative PNA favors south-central and southeastern ridging (a warmer pattern).
Eventually, we expect the deeply negative EPO to take control and overwhelm the pattern with cold. However, as this transition of power takes place, the negative PNA won’t go down without a fight and will likely play a role in the weather leading up to Christmas.
Highlights:
II. While the sticking snows will miss us this go around, scattered snow showers will impact central IN overnight into early Thursday morning. There’s also still the potential of a skinny lake effect snow band to impact a narrow portion of western and north-central IN early Thursday.
III. Reinforcing cold air will plunge south Thursday. Highs will remain below freezing along with wind chill values in the 10s most of the day.
IV: A milder southwesterly air flow will result in slightly “warmer” temperatures this weekend (mid 40s for highs Saturday) before showers arrive to close the weekend. Despite the slight relaxation of the cold, this will come with a gusty breeze over the weekend.
Highlights:
III. A period of brief moderation will come in this pattern early Christmas week, but all eyes continue to focus on the period between December 22nd through December 26th for the potential of impactful weather across our region. For model “worshipers” out there, we suggest paying more attention to overall trends, and a blend of ensemble data, as opposed to specifics associated with operational runs. It’s a “jailbreak” pattern of sorts as true arctic air will be pouring down the Plains while the southeastern ridge tries to fight for a time. The resistance from the southeastern ridge and associated tight thermal gradient should promote a very stormy regime for the interior (Ohio Valley into the interior northeast) as we head into the true holiday/ Christmas stretch. As of now, we favor the idea of multiple waves along the pressing arctic boundary, as opposed to one big storm. Looking back through the records shows some of the heaviest snows at IND have come from similar set-ups. Understanding each set-up is unique, the overall pattern does have to raise an eye brow for potential of wintry weather in, or around, our region as Christmas approaches…
Highlights:
This will keep highs in the middle 20s Tuesday with wind chill values in the single digits and teens most of the day.
This doesn’t last long as the pattern begins to reload as Christmas week approaches. As the evolution to a fresh cold pattern takes place, there’s a window of opportunity present for a more significant wintry system to potentially impact the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. Notice the relatively “flat” ridge across the southern tier and associated tight thermal gradient. This look suggests we need to be on guard for the chance of a storm system to ride the thermal gradient in a west-to-east fashion, and has wintry implications for our region. Far too early for specifics; just know the possibility looms of a wintry event, locally, as Christmas week nears.
Speaking of Christmas, it sure appears as if cold will overwhelm the pattern for Christmas, itself, and the overall cold regime doesn’t show signs of letting up (with the exception of potentially a day or two) into the new year.