October 2017 archive

Oct 14

Sunday Morning Showers; Crashing Temperatures…

A cold front is on the move this evening. After a summer-like Saturday (that likely featured the last 80° day until next spring), MUCH cooler air will invade Sunday.

This evening, showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been strong-to-severe, are ongoing to our west and northwest. As the cold front draws closer, showers will push into central Indiana Sunday morning (mid-to-late morning). These showers and embedded thunder will be much weaker than what’s currently impacting our western neighbors. Here’s an idea what the radar may look like around 10a.

The bigger story Sunday will be the falling temperatures. Early risers will be greeted by temperatures around 70°, but these mild readings will transition to downright chilly conditions before sunset: 50s by lunch and 40s shortly after dark. Lows Monday and Tuesday mornings will fall into the 30s for outlying communities.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/14/sunday-morning-showers-crashing-temperatures/

Oct 12

Weekend Warmup Ahead Of The Coolest Air Of The Season…

Highlights:

  • Weekend Warmup
  • Scattered showers Sunday morning
  • Gusty winds and falling temperatures

Weekend Changes…Before we discuss our weekend weather, we should finally see the “doom and gloom” depart later this afternoon as enough of a southwest breeze and drier air helps scour out the low clouds, drizzle, and fog.  Improvements will come slowly, but surely as we progress into the afternoon hours.

A delightful Saturday is dialed up, including what’s very likely to be our last 80° reading until next spring.  Northern portions of the state will get in on some shower activity Saturday, but we’ll remain dry and windy here on the home front.  As the cold front draws closer to the region, scattered showers and embedded thunder will blow into town Sunday morning.  This won’t be a significant rain event and the much bigger deal will be the falling afternoon temperatures and gusty northwest breeze.  You’ll need a jacket before the sun sets Sunday.

The cooler ending to the weekend is a harbinger of things to come as we open the new work week.  In fact, temperatures will fall low enough to warrant a patchy frost risk for outlying areas away from the metro Monday and Tuesday mornings.  Sun-filled skies and cool, crisp afternoons are on tap next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/12/weekend-warmup-ahead-of-the-coolest-air-of-the-season/

Oct 12

Colder Pattern Ahead To Close October; Open November?

October, month-to-date, has been nothing short of a blow torch.  Officially, IND is running +9° through the 11th.

In coffee shops and my travels around the great state of Indiana, I’ve overheard lots of talk centered on because October has been so warm, another lackluster snow season awaits.  Let us remind you that the infamous snow season of ’13-’14 featured a very warm first half of October.

The upcoming 7-10 days will feature more of a transitional period of weather that we’ve come to know and love around these parts.  Warmth will spread northeast this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front (around 80° Saturday) before falling temperatures Sunday afternoon behind the frontal passage.  The chilliest air so far this season will descend upon the region early next week. That said, the chill won’t hold and another surge of above normal warmth will spread northeast by the latter parts of next week.

A more significant pattern change appears dialed up prior to Halloween and this is one that seems suited to lead to more prolonged and significant cold to wrap up the month and head on into November.  Notice the evolution of things from October 21st to the 25th, courtesy of the GEFS off the fantastic tropicaltidbits.com.  Other model data is in general agreement, leading to a rather high confidence level for this time period.

It should also be noted that analog data and research also would lean heavily in the cold direction to wrap up October and these findings also favor a chilly November… More on that later!  Speaking of later, an updated 7-day will be posted this evening.  Make it a great day!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/12/colder-pattern-ahead-to-close-october-open-november/

Oct 10

Ups And Downs Of Autumn…

Highlights:

  • Early morning rain ends
  • Cooler air arrives
  • Warm Saturday
  • Much cooler close to the weekend

Buckle Up…Early morning showers and embedded thunder should press northeast of the region before the rush gets underway.  All the same, expect damp roads on the way in to work and school Wednesday morning.  Additionally, we’ll notice a much cooler feel to the day, including nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures.  After a seasonable high Thursday, dry conditions and moderating temperatures will be with us to wrap up the work week.

Our next storm system will take aim on the region this weekend.  Dry conditions will prevail Saturday, along with a gusty southwest wind that will help aid in boosting temperatures to around 80° (where’s that college football weather)?!  That southwest (warm) wind will be in advance of an approaching cold front that will deliver scattered showers Sunday.  Not everyone will get wet, but everyone will notice the much cooler close to the weekend.  Temperatures will fall Sunday evening with a gusty north breeze.

Early next week will open dry and cool.  – Just classic fall weather that most of us have come to know and love this time of year around these parts!

Looking ahead, there continue to be signs that point towards potentially a more significant shift in the weather pattern that would result in a rather dramatic cold transition to wrap up the month.  More on this later.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/10/ups-and-downs-of-autumn/

Oct 09

Active Week Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Warm open to the work week
  • T-storms return
  • Weekend cold front

Active Times This Week…With the exception of patchy morning fog, the work week will get off to an uneventful start.  Unseasonably warm conditions will continue with sunshine.

A storm system will move out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will help spread an initial round of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana Tuesday morning, followed by more widespread showers and embedded thunder Tuesday evening into the predawn hours Wednesday.  Drier and cooler air will return Wednesday afternoon and Thursday is shaping up to be the coolest day of the week (very close to our average high of 66° for the date).

The cool air won’t last long as a southerly air flow returns in advance of our next storm system.  Saturday will be dry and breezy before clouds increase Sunday and scattered thunderstorms arrive Sunday afternoon and evening.  A more significant shot of cool air will invade early next week behind the frontal passage.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/09/active-week-of-weather/

Oct 08

Sunday Morning Notebook; Active Pattern Remains…

For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective.  As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.

A look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days, courtesy of weatherbell.com.

Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.

It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.

An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week.  This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place.  Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground.  The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.

The southeast ridge will provide more bonus summer-like conditions next weekend across the eastern half of the country.

In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday.  In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures.  Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far.  No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.

A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend.  From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.

Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/08/sunday-morning-notebook-active-pattern-remains/

Oct 06

Warm Saturday; Storms Rumble In Late…

October has gotten off to a warm start (+ 8.4° at IND, to be exact) and that will continue this weekend as high temperatures top out between 80° – 85° Saturday.

October has gotten off to a warm start across the Mid West.

In addition to Saturday’s warmth, southwest winds will gust over 35 MPH at times- especially during the afternoon hours.

Most of Saturday will remain rain free, but we’ll need to keep an eye towards the western horizon Saturday afternoon as a frontal boundary helps kick up a line of thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes a large portion of Indiana under a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday.  While widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated, a couple of embedded gusty storms are a good bet Saturday afternoon and evening.

The biggest concern with stronger storms is gusty straight line winds.  While the line of storms should be relatively “skinny,” don’t be surprised if one or two of the storms requires a warning.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 9p Saturday.

We’ll turn less humid and slightly cooler for the second half of the weekend!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/06/warm-saturday-storms-rumble-in-late/

Oct 05

More Rain For Some; Watching Nate…

Highlights:

  • Wet close to the work week for some
  • Saturday storms
  • Watching Nate

Unsettled Close To The Work Week…Thursday’s weather was just what the doctor ordered!  Officially, here at IndyWx HQ, we recorded 0.73″.  Many neighborhoods throughout central IN accumulated more than 1″ of much needed rainfall!  Thankfully, additional rain chances are present as we wrap up the work week.  Most widespread showers and embedded thunder will impact the northern half of the state Friday, especially the northern third of the state.

As we flip the page over to the weekend, mostly dry conditions can be expected, with the exception of a skinny line of thunderstorms that will blow through the state Saturday evening.  These will come and go rather quickly and we’ll get into a slightly cooler and drier regime to wrap up the weekend.

Attention this weekend will be what comes of Nate.  Overall, ideas haven’t changed over the past 24 hours, including an eventual late weekend landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.  That said, precise all-important details concerning overall strength are still debatable.  Interests along the north-central Gulf Coast should monitor updates closely.  Here on the home front, we note subtle differences between the GFS and European in regards to inland impacts.  For now, we’ll go with a blend between the two, thinking most of the more significant, steady rains remain southeast of central Indiana.

Eventually a cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday night.  This will result in a NW wind shift and cooler air spilling in here later next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/05/more-rain-for-some-watching-nate/

Oct 04

VIDEO: Soaking Rains, Tropics, And A Much Cooler Feel Next Week…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/04/video-soaking-rains-tropics-and-a-much-cooler-feel-next-week/

Oct 03

Bonus Summertime…

Highlights:

  • Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
  • Warm pattern continues
  • Changes loom later next week

Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.  It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend.  At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend.  The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday.  Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.

As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast.  Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.  While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland.  It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

Back to the FROPA discussion:  The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week.  The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period.  In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/03/bonus-summertime/

IndyWx.com