October 2016 archive

Oct 31

Weather Certainly More Of A Treat Than A Trick…

screen-shot-2016-10-31-at-7-26-50-amThe 2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available.

Highlights:

  • Great trick-or-treat weather in store this evening
  • Near record warmth Tuesday-Wednesday
  • Cooler to close the week

Pleasant Halloween Weather…Recent Halloweens have produced accumulating snow, heavy rain, and storms.  Thankfully, today will be much more pleasant and feature mostly cloudy skies and pleasant temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, they’ll get a big boost Tuesday and Wednesday (both days will feature near record highs).  A breezy SW wind will be in play and clouds will increase Wednesday, eventually giving way to showers Wednesday night.  Rain will continue Thursday morning as a cold front moves through the region.  Cooler, drier air will move in as we close the work week.

Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday will be dry and pleasant.  Sunday is a bit of a question mark.  The European model is suggesting a reinforcing push of cooler air will ooze into the area, while the GFS is less impressed.  We’ll lean our forecast more towards the European for now.  Regardless, Sunday will be a dry day.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/31/weather-certainly-more-of-a-treat-than-a-trick/

Oct 30

2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook…

Author: Bill McMillan- Founder and Owner of IndyWx.com

Date: Sunday, October 30th, 2016

2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook

We’re bullish on a colder and snowier than normal winter across central IN (and a widespread portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley, for that matter) for 2016-2017.  Furthermore, model data and analogs suggest the period Thanksgiving to Christmas could be quite wintry this year.  If you’re one of those that likes it cold with storms and rumors of storms through the holiday season, this could be your year.

The basis of the IndyWx.com 2016-2017 Winter Outlook

  • Weak La Nina
  • West-based QBO (read more about the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation here)
  • PDO- does the negative trend continue?

The PDO (read more about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation here) is a bit of a wildcard moving forward.  The past (2) years has featured a positive PDO, but latest data shows that we’ve slipped into a slightly negative state (-1.06 in Sept).  Negative phases favor warmth, locally.  Interestingly, most model data suggests a positive look this winter.

The image below shows the differences in what a warm (left) and cool (right) PDO looks like.

pdo_warm_cool(Image courtesy of JISAO)

Sea surface temperature model data centered on the upcoming winter

SST CA model

screen-shot-2016-10-30-at-10-11-58-amNMME model

nmme_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2JAMSTEC model

ssta-glob_-djf2017-1sep2016JMA model

screen-shot-2016-10-30-at-10-19-22-amWe’ve done an “about face” in the equatorial Pacific.  Last year at this time featured one of the strongest El Ninos on record.  (Remember that ridiculously warm December last year)?!  This year, a snap shot of the SST anomalies (from 10.27.16) shows a vastly different look and the weak La Nina underway. We think a weak La Nina dominates the majority of the upcoming meteorological winter.

screen-shot-2016-10-30-at-10-33-07-amThe International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) plume shows the weak La Nina continuing through winter before rebounding over the spring.

ensoplot_1016Analogs:

We’re keying in on the following years to get an idea of what the future may hold for meteorological winter (December-February), based on the ENSO state and QBO west.

  • 2013-2014 *snowiest winter on record (52.2″)
  • 2008-2009
  • 1995-1996 *6th snowiest winter on record (37.8″
  • 1971-1972
  • 1961-1962
  • 1959-1960

We expect a southeast ridge to be a big player through the balance of the upcoming winter.  While that will likely keep our friends in the southeast region milder and drier when compared to normal, it’ll also serve as enough resistance to keep us on our toes with an active storm track through the Ohio Valley.  We’ve alluded to this since late summer and early fall, but the idea of a “big hitter” winter is very much on the table and could include a couple significant winter storms through our part of the country.  Additionally, a second storm track from northwest-flow clippers will have to be monitored- particularly mid and late winter.

Despite a warm fall, we expect the evolution of the pattern to undergo a significant shift mid-November and again want to reiterate the holiday stretch could be quite “fun” this year- in stark contrast to the 2015 Christmas season.

IndyWx.com 2016-2017 Winter Forecast

  • Snowfall: 35″, including first flake this fall to last flake next spring (average snowfall at IND is 25.9″)
  • Temperatures: 1 degree below average for meteorological winter (December through February)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/30/2016-2017-indywx-com-winter-outlook/

Oct 29

Warmth Dominates…

screen-shot-2016-10-29-at-7-41-51-amHighlights:

  • Near record warmth
  • Windy conditions
  • Scattered showers to wrap up the weekend
  • “Ups and downs” next week

Hard To Believe This Is Late October…A strong southwest flow will help provide a windy, but incredibly warm Saturday.  Highs will approach record territory around 80.  (We’ll have to keep an eye on that 81 degree record set in 1922).  Southwest winds gusting around 30 MPH will be a good bet this afternoon, especially in the open country.

A weak disturbance will push southeast Sunday and help to increase our cloud cover, along with providing scattered showers- mainly in the afternoon and evening.  We’ll turn cooler, but still remain above normal for Halloween.  Trick-or-treat conditions look ideal, especially considering recent Halloweens have served up rain, storms, and snow across the region.

A warm front will lift north Monday night and offer up another opportunity to push for record warmth Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front slides through Thursday with showers.  Cooler air will settle into the Ohio Valley and Mid West to wrap up the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/29/warmth-dominates/

Oct 28

VIDEO: Unseasonably warm pattern to open November…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/28/video-unseasonably-warm-pattern-to-open-november/

Oct 27

Warm Close To October And Open To November…

screen-shot-2016-10-27-at-7-56-39-amHighlights:

  • Cooler and blustery today
  • Warmer times coming to close the month and open November
  • Scattered showers return next week

Chilly Today, But Warmer Times Loom…A cold front swept through central IN earlier this morning.  Since we’re on the NW side of the front now, a cooler air mass is filtering in as we type this.  Today will be blustery and chilly with considerable cloudiness.  That said, the chilly air will only hang around for 24 hours, as we begin to moderate Friday afternoon.  SW winds will blow Friday PM and help give a chilly start to the day a rather significant boost into the upper 60s for a high.  Saturday will out-do that as we zoom into the middle 70s.

A weak front will slip through here Sunday and cool us off a few degrees.  While a light shower is possible as the front moves through, we think most stay dry.

We quickly return to the warm regime early next week.  At this time, Halloween looks mild and dry for those trick-or-treaters out there.

Looking further down the road, significant changes loom by mid and late November.  Those changes include the following words: cold and wintry…

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″-0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/27/warm-close-to-october-and-open-to-november/

Oct 26

VIDEO: Briefly Cooler Thursday Before A Windy Warm-Up…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/26/video-briefly-cooler-thursday-before-a-windy-warm-up/

Oct 25

Tuesday Morning Briefing…

I’m on the road this morning so this will be quick (hoping to get a full 7-day out late tonight).

High pressure will supply a beautiful fall Tuesday. Patchy frost has been reported across central IN this morning (mid to upper 30s for some). Highs today will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s with partly cloudy skies. 

Our next storm system will serve to offer up showers by Wednesday evening (most around, or just after, the evening rush). It’ll be a windy day as well as SW winds gust over 30 MPH at times, especially during the afternoon. 


A rumble or two of thunder is possible across central IN Wednesday evening and rainfall amounts should fall in the 0.25″-0.50″ range for most neighborhoods. 

While we’ll turn briefly cooler behind the front to close the work week, the big news in an unseasonably warm close to October and open to November (several days with highs in the 70s develop this weekend into next week).


That said, MAJOR changes loom as mid November approaches. In fact, a rather dramatic shift towards a significantly colder and increasingly wintry feel looks likely as mid November approaches. This fits the pattern and analogs since summer. 


Much more later tonight! Make it a great Tuesday! 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/25/tuesday-morning-briefing/

Oct 23

Another Active Week…

screen-shot-2016-10-23-at-8-44-34-pmHighlights:

  • Cool open to the work week
  • Mid and late week fast-moving storm systems
  • Weekend timing questions

Fall Feel To Open The Week…A dry frontal boundary will pass through central IN late tonight.  Our winds will shift to the NW after midnight and help drive in a cooler air mass to open up the new work week.  Despite lots of sunshine, temperatures will be running below average to open the work week.

A fast-moving storm system will scoot through the lower Great Lakes region Wednesday.  This will help serve to strengthen our winds (SW direction) along with create a chance of scattered showers Wednesday evening.  Another pop of unseasonably cool air will blow into town Thursday.

Yet another storm system will press through the region as we get set to head into the weekend. Rainfall totals don’t look particularly impressive, but we’ll lean more towards the Friday night/ Saturday morning storm system as being the better rain-maker of the (2) systems this week.  Cooler air will flow in behind the storm system for the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/23/another-active-week/

Oct 21

VIDEO: Weekend Weather Talk And Looking Into Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/21/video-weekend-weather-talk-and-looking-into-next-week/

Oct 21

Increasing Sunshine; Unseasonably Cool Close To The Work Week…

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-8-33-11-amHighlights:

  • Cool close to the work week
  • Ideal autumn weekend
  • Turning breezy early next week
  • Scattered showers Wednesday PM

Grab The Jacket…After a significant rain event across central Indiana, the weekend will offer up a much-needed time to dry out!  Here’s an illustration of where heaviest rains fell over the past 24-36 hours, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.  Please note these aren’t official rainfall storm totals. Many ground-truth reports into the office include amounts of 1.5″-3″.  Thanks to each of you for your reports!

nws_precip_indy_2High pressure will build in over the weekend and create an increasingly sunny sky.  The only caveat to that will be today where mixed clouds and sun across central IN become a little thicker and may yield lake effect rain showers across northern portions of the state later this afternoon.

We’ll turn briefly milder Sunday (upper 60s to around 70), but it’ll be a breezy day as a dry cold front sets it’s eyes on the region for a Sunday evening sweep!  Reinforcing cool air will blow in to open the work week, but this should be a rain-free frontal passage as our air mass will be very dry.

The next storm system that could deliver rain arrives Wednesday evening.  Along with scattered showers, a gusty SW wind can be expected before cooler air blows in to close next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/21/increasing-sunshine-unseasonably-cool-close-to-the-work-week/

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