August 2016 archive
Highlights:
- Tropical feel
- Heavy weekend rains
- Unsettled early next week
Zoning In On Heaviest Rains…It’s about as humid as it can get across central IN. “Air you can wear” is the appropriate way to describe this humidity and overall sultry feel. As we’d expect with this tropical air mass, isolated to widely scattered strong storms could pop at any point and result in locally heavy rain. We’ll “rinse and repeat” today’s forecast to wrap up the work week.
Attention then shifts to a widespread soaking rain event this weekend as two main players “team up” to produce a localized flood threat. A cold front will sag into central IN while remnant tropical moisture slowly moves north and eventually curls northeast. Precisely where the front stalls in response to the tropical low moving north will be where heaviest (4″+) rains set up. Thinking this morning places the greatest risk somewhere between Indianapolis and Louisville, but we caution that we still want to see a couple more model runs before settling on a given area. Unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week as tropical moisture slowly exits stage right.
Longer term, indications point towards an overall cooler, wetter, back half of August. Times- they are ‘a changing!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.00″-4.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/11/a-wet-weekend-in-store/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/10/flooding-prospects-on-the-rise-but-fine-tuning-required/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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August 9, 2016
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/09/video-weekend-heavy-rain-threat/
A combination of ingredients are coming together to offer up the potential of heavy rain for portions of the region this weekend.
An approaching cold front will drop slowly southeast out of the Plains while a tropical low moves inland from the central Gulf Coast.
The precise placement of the front will serve as the focal point for heavy weekend rains. As we’d expect from this distance, modeling disagrees on the all-important specifics. Using a model blend, central Indiana is on the table for heavy late week-weekend rain as of now. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will be above 2″ and suggest the threat of torrential downpours, including localized flash flooding across the Ohio Valley. Eventually, the cold front will sweep the tropical-rich moisture away from the region and cooler, much less humid air will press in by this time next week.
We still have time to watch the evolution of things play out as we progress through mid week. Stay tuned as we “sure-up” the details and hone in on the area where heavy rain is likely.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/08/monitoring-prospects-for-heavy-weekend-rain/
Highlights:
- Sun-filled days
- Heat cranks up
- Late week questions
Turning Up The Heat…After a refreshing weekend, the heat returns later this week. Look for highs in the lower 90s with an oppressive feel to the air, as humidity builds. “Air you can wear” will be an appropriate forecast title come mid week. The forecast is easy through the midweek stretch with sunshine as the rule.
Things become more unclear as we approach the back half of the week and the weekend. We note the GFS is rather progressive in swinging a cold front through here with scattered showers and thunderstorms, followed by a significantly cooler/ drier air mass a week from today. On the other hand, the European solution is drastically different as it slows the front to a “crawl” coming through the Ohio Valley and also entrains GOM (Gulf of Mexico) moisture from the serious rain/ flood maker later this week across the Gulf states. It’s a significantly wetter look, locally, and a situation we’ll continue to keep a close eye on in the coming day, or two.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/07/dry-and-turning-hot-watching-late-week/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/04/storms-for-some-more-winter-chatter/
It may only be August, but thoughts here are solely focused now on the upcoming fall and winter seasons. We received an update today from the sea surface temperature constructed analogue model and the look is a “mighty fine one” if you enjoy wintry conditions, locally.
As we’ve mentioned in previous video and text posts, the once-thought moderate to strong La Nina doesn’t appear to be taking shape and instead we’re likely left with a weak La Nina to neutral look. Factor in the positive PDO and the overall pattern is one that could yield cold, snowy times, locally, especially the middle and latter parts of the winter season. (No reason to get too specific this far out).
In any event, today’s update is an “intriguing” one for winter enthusiasts across the region.
Upper air pattern for DJF and JFM, indicating the colder, more wintry regime for mid and late winter:
Precipitation DJF
Temperature anomalies DJF and JFM
Hmmmmm… 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/03/sst-ca-model-weighs-in-on-the-upcoming-winter/
Highlights:
- Lots of sunshine
- Best storm chances Friday this week
- Turning less humid this weekend
Sunglasses Required…The storm axis has set itself up to our west, including IA and MO. At one point, data and upper level steering currents seemed to align in a manner that would be further east, but that’s obviously not the case. The end result here will be a drier forecast, overall. We’ll still have to remain on our toes for storm potential through week’s end, but the confidence is low and the drier regime looks good this morning.
Less humid air will push in this weekend, along with continued sunny conditions. All in all, the first weekend of August looks very pleasant. Plans to go to the State Fair anyone?
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/02/lots-of-sunshine/
