The Corn Belt and parts of the Ohio Valley will be in a favorable position for periods of storminess as we progress through the early portions of the new week.
It’s an admittedly tricky pattern when it comes down to the all-important details (timing, track, etc.), but just know from this distance, it’s a pattern conducive for thunderstorm development and localized flash flooding.
The region will be located on the NE flank of a hot dome centered to our SW.
Disturbances love to ride northwest to southeast around the periphery of the ridge. Accordingly, the subtle northwest flow aloft will likely send a couple disturbances into the region over the early week stretch.
The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture and precipitable water values (2″+) will promote localized flash flooding within the storm complexes.
We think the initial wave of storms will ride southeast late tonight and early Monday and could encompass SW portions of the forecast area. The pattern is favorable for additional storm complexes to travel southeast Tuesday and Wednesday, however.
With the moisture content in the atmosphere, localized flash flooding will result where training takes place. We caution that this won’t be a uniform event (some neighborhoods will see a half inch of rain this week while others may see as much as 3″-4″). We’ll have to treat each complex as they come and fine tune the specifics within the forecast.
That said, things will change as we progress into the prime heating hours of the afternoon and evening. Upper level energy will rotate east out of the Plains (this morning) and across Indiana this afternoon and evening.
This will help ignite thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. While a storm could impact any given neighborhood this evening, best concentration of storms should lie north of the I-70 corridor. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet with the stronger storms. Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2″ will be possible.
Additional scattered thunderstorm activity will continue Saturday, but there will be many more dry hours than wet/ stormy.
While some oppressive heat and humidity will impact our local area to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend, this is a pattern where it’s incredibly difficult to deal with any sort of one particular weather pattern for any time of substance. Looking forward to August, we don’t see this changing. Remember that word we leaned on to begin summer? “Transient” remains the best way to describe the pattern moving forward, as well.
To close, we’ll leave you with a look at the latest PNA pattern. This has been the primary driver of our weather this summer, and it also argues any sort of dry, hot weather doesn’t last. Note the positive PNA returning to close July. This also lines up well with our idea of unsettled times returning…
