May 16, 2016 archive

Monday Evening Update…

Through the first half of May, temperatures are running more than 2 degrees below average at IND.  We’re in the middle of a rather large area of below normal temperatures from the SW into the NE region.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomWe’ll remain below average through the upcoming week, but temperatures will begin to moderate over the weekend into next week.

KEYE_2016051612_nxa_384In general, we agree with the temperature anomalies above, courtesy of the GEFS.  As noted, the cool start to the period will moderate and turn warmer next week.  Unfortunately, that warmer trend won’t last and it’s likely we trend cooler around the Memorial Day weekend.

In the shorter range, light rain will spread into central IN late tonight into Tuesday.  Rainfall amounts won’t be significant, and should be generally around 0.25″, or less.

1Drier air is still expected for mid week, as high pressure builds into the region.  Needed sunshine and pleasant conditions can be expected.

2As we look forward to the weekend, modeling is still at odds with one another.  The European remains consistent on the idea of heavy rain while the GFS remains consistent on a drier solution (rain, but much lighter amounts).  That said, we note the consensus of the GFS ensemble members is more aggressive and reflects the idea of the European.  We’ll remain firm on the idea of potentially heavy rain building in Friday into Saturday.

gefs_qpf_ens_ky_23

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Rain Pushes In Tonight…

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 9.49.02 AM

Highlights:

  • Dry daytime before showers develop tonight
  • Cool times continue
  • Drier mid week
  • Late week storm system

Cool Times Remain…The work week is off to a chilly, but dry start.  While the cool times will remain, dry times, unfortunately, won’t.  Rain will arrive on the scene tonight and continue into the first half of Tuesday.  Heaviest rain totals will remain downstate, but on average we expect 0.25″-0.50″ across central IN.  Tuesday will be a chilly day with clouds lingering most of the day (keep in mind our average high now is into the lower 70s).

We’ll enjoy some much needed dry time for the mid week period, including lots of sunshine.  Temperatures will remain below average.

Our next storm system will push into the Ohio Valley late week.  Clouds will be on the increase Friday with rain building in during the PM.  Rain continues into early Saturday before we get back to drier conditions late in the day and into Sunday.  The potential is there for a period of heavy rain, but we caution forecast models aren’t in agreement on the axis of heaviest totals.  Stay tuned.

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