April 2014 archive

Apr 30

Cool Late Week Stretch…

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The region will remain under the influence of a chilly and, at times, damp upper low as we wrap up the work week.  While we’ll keep mention of an isolated to scattered shower into the weekend, most of the weekend will remain rain-free. A warm front will lift north through the region early next week, helping temperatures reach the warmest of the season so far.  We think the years first 80 degree reading will be registered by the middle part of the week.  A new storm system promises another round of active weather beyond the forecast period.

– We’re experiencing technical issues with our video recorder software.  We’ve cut two videos for today’s forecast, but neither will publish correctly.  We’ll continue to work on this and try to post a video briefing later this evening.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/30/cool-late-week-stretch-more-on-the-longer-term/

Apr 30

Rinse And Repeat Pattern…

We’re in what we call a “rinse and repeat” pattern.  The region will be under the influence of a broad west to northwesterly flow courtesy of the upper low to our north- over the northwestern Great Lakes region.  This will continue as we put a wrap on the work week.

As a result, we’ll note a much cooler regime (highs today will reach the lower to middle 60s, but highs Thursday and Friday won’t make it out of the 50s). Note today’s highs will be warmest across the east and cooler west as the overall cool air mass moves in.

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While everyone won’t get wet, instability-driven showers will be most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.  These showers will dissipate at night only to reform the following afternoon.

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We’ll have a full forecast update posted tonight.  Make it a great Wednesday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/30/rinse-and-repeat-pattern/

Apr 29

Tuesday Evening Update!

Quick evening update to discuss the overnight period and look at the cooler pattern moving in for late week.

Showers will diminish during the overnight and gusty northwest winds will deliver a cooler air mass that will hang on as we put a wrap on the work week:

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The video below has more details!  Have a great evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/29/tuesday-evening-update/

Apr 29

Severe Threat This Evening…

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Video discussing today’s custom built IndyWx.com Forecast issued at 8:51am:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/29/severe-threat-this-evening/

Apr 28

Monday Night Severe Weather Update.

Good evening and welcome in to IndyWx.com!

We continue to closely monitor radar and satellite trends tonight and keep a close eye on severe developments to our west.  As the video discusses, the clouds and rain from earlier today have helped in a big way from at least limiting what today “could have been” from a severe perspective.

That’s not saying we’re signaling the all-clear by any stretch of the imagination, it’s just saying that the clouds and rain from earlier have helped to keep us from really destabilizing the local atmosphere and the clearing we’re seeing now may be too little too late in regards to widespread severe weather here.

All of that said, keep a close eye on local radar tonight and remain weather aware.  The dynamics at play could result in a thunderstorm turning severe rather rapidly tonight and we’ll continue to closely monitor.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will impact central Indiana during the overnight period:

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The video below has more details:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/28/monday-night-severe-weather-update/

Apr 28

Keeping A Close Eye On Severe Potential This Evening…

The region is still very much under the gun for potential severe weather this afternoon and tonight.  That said, the severe threat across central Indiana is highly dependable on just how easy we’re able to shake the clouds and rain this morning.  Sometimes modeling (even high resolution data) struggles with this.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the region for a Slight Risk of severe weather- again the primary threat time lies this afternoon into tonight.

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Latest high resolution data suggests we’re able to clear things out this afternoon and introduce sunshine to help add heat and further destabilize our local atmosphere (not a good thing), which would help lead to rather robust thunderstorm development.

Note the simulated satellite data showing the dreaded clearing from now through the afternoon:

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Latest high resolution data suggests potential super cell thunderstorms begin to fire to our west as early as 4-6pm.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

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Bottom line, a significant severe weather threat is present this evening into tonight.  We’ll hope the clouds and rain linger longer than modeling currently projects as this would greatly limit the potential heating and destabilization and subsequent severe risk.  That said, it’s important to note current data does suggest we break into afternoon sunshine.

Greatest severe risks here appear to be large hail, damaging straight line winds, and a possible tornado.  Be sure to have a way to get the latest weather information this afternoon and tonight.  Stay safe out there!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/28/keeping-a-close-eye-on-severe-potential-this-evening/

Apr 27

Unsettled Week On Deck…

Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat.               45/ 69 59/ 74 55/ 73 49/ 59 43/ 52 41/ 54 39/ 56  Light Moderate…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/27/unsettled-week-on-deck/

Apr 26

Saturday Night: Where We’ve Been & Where We’re Going…

It’s been a wet April across the region and prospects are high of finishing the month on a wet note, as well. Temperatures are close to where they should be,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/26/saturday-night-where-weve-been-where-were-going/

Apr 26

Saturday Morning Video Update

Good morning and happy Saturday!  A beautiful day is underway and we’ll keep mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures for the better part of the day.  Clouds increase tonight and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/26/saturday-morning-video-update/

Apr 25

Nice Weekend Before A Prolonged Rainy/ Stormy Stretch…

A mostly dry and warm weekend is underway.  The Friday afternoon sunshine we enjoyed is a preview of what the majority of the weekend will provide.  We note the threat of a scattered shower or storm across northern portions of the state during the predawn hours Saturday and across central portions of the state (including Indianapolis) during the predawn hours Sunday. That said, in both cases, most will remain rain-free.

The big event is still slated for a late Sunday night arrival.  Low pressure will sit and spin across the Plains states Saturday into Sunday.  While we stay mostly dry, a major severe weather outbreak will likely unfold across this area during the day Saturday and again Sunday.

Better chances of rain and thunderstorms will arrive across central Indiana late Sunday night.  Some of these storms may be strong, but we think it’s more in the Monday and Tuesday time frame where we really need to be on our toes in regards to severe potential.  At this juncture, it appears as if all modes of severe weather will be in play across the region, including tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight line winds.  An enhanced risk of severe weather will lie across southern portions of the state.

The Days 4 and 5 severe weather outlook from the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will likely be expanded north as we move forward.day48prob

Forecast radar from some of our high resolution model data suggests thunderstorms begin to rumble into the state as early as Sunday night.

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Eventually, this big spring storm will begin to weaken and turn into a large closed off upper level low pressure system. This promises a MUCH cooler stretch here mid to late next week along with continued unsettled conditions, with periods of showers and blustery northwest winds.  In fact, IND very well record measurable precipitation every day Sunday through next Saturday…

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After a warm weekend and early week, note the colder air moving in to wrap up April and open May. Temperatures are moving in the wrong direction.  Highs by the mid to latter part of next week will only make it into the lower 50s some days.  The first week of May looks much cooler than average.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/25/nice-weekend-before-a-prolonged-rainy-stormy-stretch/

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