Feb 21
Just wanted to take the time to post a couple thoughts and give you a look at the latest model data for our potential accumulating snow event ahead tomorrow night-early…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/21/quick-video-update-on-the-snow-potential-saturday-night/
Feb 20
|
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31/ 43 |
31/ 44 |
26/ 34 |
18/ 32 |
19/ 26 |
8/ 22 |
7/ 19 |
|
Light |
– – – |
Light |
Light |
– – – |
– – – |
– – – |
Forecast Updated 02.21.14 @ 7:30a
Chilly, Windy Close To The Week…After a busy Thursday night that included hail reports, damaging wind gusts, and flooding we’re looking at a calmer, yet blustery and colder close to the work week as low pressure heads north into Canada. Winds will remain strong and gusty this morning, but begin to “relax” as we head into the afternoon, diminishing slowly through the day. That said, it’ll remain quite blustery and much cooler than the flirt with spring Thursday. A couple of snow showers may fly in shallow wrap around moisture this morning.
For now, we think Saturday will remain mostly dry, but a fast moving weather disturbance will scoot by to our north and could result in an increase in cloud cover Saturday afternoon.
Sunday Snow? That remains the question, but we continue to closely monitor a disturbance that could produce accumulating snow here Sunday afternoon into Monday. Model data is all over the place and ranges anywhere from a mainly dry day Sunday to a full blown accumulating snow event of a few inches. It’s worth noting the Canadian is the most bullish on Sunday accumulation potential and we’re leaning more towards that direction as of now, especially when considering the way the Canadian handled the Valentine’s snow event. Stay tuned.
Big Cold…A major league late season blast of arctic air will blow into town by the middle of next week and result in temperature close to 25-30 degrees below normal. We’ll monitor the “goings on” late next week as indications points towards a storm brewing. Early ideas take this mainly south of our immediate region, but we’ll continue to monitor.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/20/back-to-winter-we-go/
Feb 19
|
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
37/ 60 |
32/ 43 |
31/ 42 |
26/ 34 |
20/ 32 |
18/ 30 |
8/ 19 |
|
Heavy |
– – – |
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Light |
Light |
Forecast Updated 02.19.14 @ 7:58a
Severe Weather And Flooding Potential…Today we’re focused on two rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain. The first wave of rain and thunder will “rumble” through the region Thursday morning. We don’t anticipate severe weather with this initial wave, but thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours in spots as the warm front lifts north through the area. After a chilly start, temperatures will suddenly zoom to close to 60 by the afternoon.
Our attention will then turn west as we watch a line of thunderstorms organize this afternoon. Within this line of storms damaging straight line winds will be a possibility (in excess of 60 MPH) as it crosses the state. We bracket 5PM to 9PM for the most likely period for severe weather here in central Indiana. We think the greatest severe threat will lie within the squall line, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as some data today tries to develop a couple of stronger individual cells in advance of the squall line. It’ll be important to stay tuned to local radars and your favorite media outlet.
Heavy rain and flooding will be the other concern, especially when combined with a presently frozen ground and hefty snow pack. If you live in, or around, a flood prone area please monitor water levels tomorrow and prepare to move to higher ground.
Finally, strong and gusty northwest winds will blow tonight and may reach speeds close to 50 MPH as low pressure deepens heading north into the Great Lakes. “Bombogenesis” and “fresh water fury” will be accurate terms to describe this low as it rapidly strengthens heading northeast into the Lakes region. With a wet ground, additional wind damage is possible even behind the cold front with winds gusting in the 50 MPH range.
Drier, Chilly Close To The Week…The above mentioned gusty northwest winds will allow a cooler air mass to blow in to wrap up the work week. We think dry skies return Friday and continue into Saturday.
Watching Fast Moving Disturbances; Bitter Cold Returns…We’ll continue to keep a close eye on disturbances moving east over the weekend. Disagreement amongst forecast models continues Sunday and we’ll “split the difference” and forecast light snow potential Sunday for now. Another disturbance may deliver light snow late Monday into Tuesday.
By the middle of next week, the arctic express will return and deliver a bitter feel to our air mass. Looking longer term, there continue to be indications that we have to deal with a bitterly cold close to February and open to March. In fact, latest data carries this cold and wintry regime well into March…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/19/stormy-thursday-on-tap/
Feb 19
* Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found below this post.
We continue to monitor things closely Thursday as a busy day is on tap. Thunderstorms will initially blow into the region Thursday morning as a warm front lifts north through central Indiana. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and vivid lightning.
We’ll then get into a much warmer south wind (gusting up to 30 MPH) and watch radar trends closely to our west. We’re still very concerned for a squall line plowing east through the region Thursday evening. Time of greatest concern lies between 5PM and 8PM for this line, but we caution timing may have to be adjusted after looking over evening data. Damaging straight line winds are of the greatest concern Thursday evening, along with torrential rainfall.
Following the squall line, we’re also concerned for strong and potentially damaging northwest winds Thursday night, gusting up to 50 MPH, as low pressure rapidly deepens moving into the Great Lakes.
Bullet Point Thoughts You Need To Know For Thursday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/19/active-thursday-ahead/
Feb 18
|
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
35/ 50 |
36/ 60 |
29/ 43 |
29/ 39 |
21/ 35 |
17/ 28 |
16/ 24 |
|
0.00” |
0.75″-1.00″ |
0.00” |
Trace |
Trace |
0.00″ |
Accumulating snow? |
Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a
One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state. Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind. It’ll be another mild day.
Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding. In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.
The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening. While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening. The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state. Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time. Stay tuned. Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.
Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.
Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February. As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present. Stay tuned.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/18/focus-on-mid-week-flood-storm-threat/
Feb 17
Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. 25/ 43 28/ 42 35/ 56 25/ 41 27/ 39 23/ 34 17/ 26 0.00” 0.00″…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/17/mid-week-flooding-concerns-and-storms-new-cold-pattern-looms/
Feb 17
Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.
Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning. While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself. While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.
Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself. Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain. From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.
All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter. Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc. This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure. Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute. Stay safe.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/17/messy-afternoon-commute-ahead/
Feb 16
Quick post tonight just to alert you that early model runs off the 0z suite of data suggests less of a snow threat and more of freezing rain/ sleet…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/early-0z-runs-trending-more-icy-vs-snowy/
Feb 16
1.) A scan over the latest data continues to point towards an absolute mess of a Monday afternoon. Our accumulation ideas remain relatively unchanged from this morning’s update, aside from “beefing” expected snow totals for Indy’s northern ‘burbs by 1″. Most of this falls from noon to 6pm and will be followed by a dry, cold, and blustery Monday night. After likely a white-nuckle evening commute Monday, the combination of sub-freezing temperatures and gusty northwest winds Monday night will likely lead to another rough commute for Tuesday morning.
** We caution that this will be another “now cast” situation when it comes to precipitation types and their respected precise zones tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned here or to your favorite local weather media for updates and potential changes.**
2.) We continue to monitor what will be a brief thaw and associated flood risk mid week. Even without rain, water rise would occur and urban flooding from the combination of melting snow and blocked (from all of the snow) drainage zones. When you add 0.50-1″ of rain atop the melting then problems could arise Wednesday into Thursday. Additionally, we’ll need to prepare for the likelihood of dense fog Wednesday as milder air surges north over a deep snow pack.
3.) For anyone thinking spring is setting in during our mid week thaw will need to think again. Latest model data continues to suggest we reverse things quickly later this week and for the upcoming weekend. In fact, some model data, including the European, suggests central Indiana is under the gun for a weekend winter storm. We’ll continue to monitor closely…
4.) Additionally, prospects continue to grow for another extended period of well below normal cold and renewed wintry precipitation chances in the long term (into March). Both the GFS and European models are in agreement on the mid to long range pattern with a trough settling back into the eastern half of the country.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/sunday-afternoon-thoughts/
Feb 16
|
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16/ 25 |
15/ 33 |
20/ 39 |
24/ 42 |
35/ 57 |
28/ 45 |
28/ 50 |
|
0.00” |
1-3″ (and ice) |
0.00” |
Trace |
0.50″-1.00″ |
0.00″ |
0.00” |
Forecast Updated 02.16.14 @ 11:15a
Cold Sunday…Fresh off celebrating our snowiest winter on record (surpassed last night at IND at 51.6″ and the Record Event Report can be found here), we’ll enjoy a dry day, but blowing and drifting snow will remain an issue in the open country. A few breaks in the cloud cover can be expected this afternoon on what will otherwise be a rather cloudy day. Highs will only climb into the lower to middle 20s (well below the average high of 40 and closer to the normal low of 24). Yes, our cold, snowy winter just keeps on keepin’ on!
Snow And Ice Issues Monday…A storm system will move through the region Monday and deliver a mixture of precipitation types across central Indiana. The way we see things unfolding as of this forecast update brings a wintry mix of sleet and snow into the city around noon with periods of moderate to even heavy wintry precipitation falling into the mid to late afternoon hours before we begin to see the shield of moisture push northeast. This will be a “thump and go” type event.
As for precipitation type, this remains a challenge and will require much fine tuning later tonight and through the day tomorrow (another now cast scenario). We’re thinking mostly snow is the dominant form of precipitation from the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and points north. Here, 2-3″ of wet snow is possible, polished off with a light glaze of a freezing rain/sleet mixture before precipitation ends. For the city, itself, we think around 1-2″ of snow is possible with a glaze of freezing rain of around a tenth of an inch. Farther south, to include the southern Indianapolis suburbs, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will be the concern with glaze potential approaching one quarter inch. Again, we caution this is our best idea at this point and we’ll post some fresh thoughts later this evening.
Needless to say, tomorrow stands to include treacherous driving conditions in and around central Indiana and the National Weather Service will likely issue Winter Weather/ Freezing Rain Advisories later this afternoon to account for the wintry conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon.
Flooding Concerns On The Rise…With such a deep snowpack across central Indiana, combined with a frozen ground, flooding concerns will be on the rise as early as the middle to latter part of the week. We think dry and chilly (albeit milder) conditions will be with us Tuesday, but low clouds, fog, and drizzle likely develop by Wednesday as milder air streams north over the snowpack locked in across the region.
By Thursday, our attention turns to the potential of heavy rain and a couple of thunderstorms as a cold front blows through the region. Early ideas of Thursday rainfall numbers would suggest anywhere from .50-1″ of rain is laid down and when combined with the heavy snow pack and milder air, flooding concerns will certainly be present. Needless to say, if you live in a flood prone area, please monitor the situation closely later this week.
Winter Blows Back In…As promised, the briefly milder shot of air would be just that- brief. We continue to monitor data that suggests a colder, more wintry, pattern blows right back into the region to wrap up February.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/cold-today-messy-monday-ahead/
